Biden Has Lost Little Swing-State Support Following First Debate

Sign up to get the latest data and analysis on how business, politics and economics intersect around the world.

President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance last week has hardly changed the lay of the land in key swing states ahead of the November elections, where concerns about his age are persisting and more voters than ever before are putting high importance on the vice presidential candidate.

According to our latest swing-state surveys on behalf of Bloomberg News, Biden leads former President Donald Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin but has no advantage in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

In the aggregate, Biden continues to underperform Trump among each candidate’s respective 2020 voters and their own party bases, while the two presumptive nominees are splitting independent voters almost evenly.

The lack of a dramatic movement against Biden among voters in key states mirrors what we are seeing at the national level, where the incumbent Democrat’s standing hasn’t changed much since the June 27 match-up amid his $50 million swing-state ad campaign.

While prominent voices in the Democratic Party appeared to have been shaken by Biden’s debate performance, the impact was smaller among swing-state voters, specifically when it comes to their perceptions of Biden’s age and abilities.

A plurality of voters (44%) said Biden is too old when asked about attributes that best characterize either Biden or Trump, matching the share who said the same in February before the president assuaged voters’ concerns about the matter with his well-received State of the Union address. However, far fewer voters perceive Biden as in good health (15%) or mentally fit (23%) when compared with the Republican candidate, driven in good part by declines among Democrats.

Both findings mirror our post-debate research on the wider national electorate, which found that Democrats drove declines in perceptions of Biden’s mental fitness and age when comparing surveys conducted before and after the first 2024 debate.

Despite rather close contests in most of the swing states surveyed, the overall swing-state electorate would like to see Biden end his campaign.

Among all swing-state voters, 55% said Biden should not continue his campaign, including 29% of Democrats and 58% of independents. When these voters were asked about Trump, they were 10 percentage points less likely to say he should end his bid (45%), with fewer than 1 in 10 Republicans sharing that sentiment. 

Should Biden continue his 2024 bid amid persistent concerns about his age and abilities, the debate also appears to have raised the importance of the vice presidential nominee.

According to the latest survey, 32% of swing-state voters said the candidates’ respective ages make their running-mate “much more important” to them than it has been in prior presidential elections, up from 24% in our survey conducted in May. Among Democrats, that figure climbed 10 points (from 26% to 36%), along with a 9-point increase among independent voters (24% to 33%).

While Trump has yet to announce his running mate, Biden’s No. 2 — Vice President Kamala Harris — is notably less disliked than the two ticket-toppers across the swing-state map. 

In the aggregate, 53% of swing-state voters hold unfavorable views of Harris, compared with 56% who said the same of Biden and 55% of Trump. Harris has the largest popularity advantage over Trump in Michigan and Nevada, the latter of which is begging for improved Democratic standing should the party ultimately need to win it in November.

The bottom line

While the first 2024 presidential debate appeared to alarm some Democratic leaders and created an opening for the press to ditch its politeness about discussing Biden’s cognitive abilities, our surveys of swing-state surveys for Bloomberg News — and our national-level data — show the matter has done little to change the underlying dynamics of the contest. 

While Biden is still underperforming Trump, the newfound vocal alarm from those in his party has been met by a more modest growth in concern among the electorate, suggesting the age matter was already baked into many voters’ calculus; the main difference now is voters’ renewed emphasis on each candidate’s vice presidential selections as the race moves forward.