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Who’s ahead in the national Democratic primary polls?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Democratic primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

July 3-6
537A
July 3-6
537A
YouGov
 Biden
47%
 Biden
47%

Biden

47%

Harris

32%
32%
Harris  Biden+15
June 28-July 1
536RV
June 28-July 1
536RV
YouGov
 Harris
31%
 Harris
31%

Harris

31%

Newsom

17%

Buttigieg

8%

Sanders

7%

Whitmer

6%

Warren

4%

Ocasio-Cortez

3%

Klobuchar

2%
17%
 NewsomHarris+14
June 29-30
397RV
June 29-30
397RV
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research
 Harris
25%
 Harris
25%

Harris

25%

M. Obama

21%

Newsom

17%

Whitmer

7%

Buttigieg

6%

Ocasio-Cortez

2%
21%
 M. ObamaHarris+4
June 28
879LV
June 28
879LV
SurveyUSA
 Harris
43%
 Harris
43%

Harris

43%

Newsom

16%

Buttigieg

8%

Whitmer

7%

Shapiro

4%

Moore

2%
16%
 NewsomHarris+27
June 28
827RV
June 28
827RV
Morning Consult
 Harris
30%
 Harris
30%

Harris

30%

Newsom

20%

Buttigieg

9%

Whitmer

5%

Beshear

3%

Cooper

3%

Pritzker

2%

Moore

2%
20%
 NewsomHarris+10
June 28
387LV
June 28
387LV
Data for Progress
 Harris
39%
 Harris
39%

Harris

39%

Newsom

18%

Buttigieg

10%

Booker

7%

Whitmer

6%

Pritzker

2%

Klobuchar

2%

Shapiro

2%
18%
 NewsomHarris+21
March 29-April 5
1,526RV
March 29-April 5
1,526RV
YouGov Blue
 Biden
76%
 Biden
76%

Biden

76%

Phillips

3%

Williamson

3%
3%
 PhillipsBiden+73
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

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Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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