Copyright � 1999. Jeff Sagarintm. All rights reserved.
FINAL 1999 Major League Soccer ratings thru results of SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 1999
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom)
(3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
(listed top-to-bottom within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced
by each team in the games that it's played so far. The schedule
difficulty of a given game takes into account the rating of the
opponent and the location of the game.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
favored by 1.08 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 6 and top 8 respectively.
All games count equally. Early games count just as much as later ones.
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FINAL Major League Soccer 1999 thru games of Sunday, November 21, 1999
HOME ADVANTAGE= .38 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 6| VS top 8
1 D.C. United = 2.67 28 10 1.87( 12) 11 5 | 14 8
2 Los Angeles Galaxy = 2.63 24 14 2.05( 7) 12 10 | 16 12
3 Dallas Burn = 2.46 22 16 2.09( 2) 10 12 | 14 14
4 Chicago Fire = 2.33 19 16 2.08( 4) 8 11 | 11 14
5 Columbus Crew = 2.27 22 15 1.96( 11) 7 8 | 12 11
6 Colorado Rapids = 2.18 20 14 2.08( 3) 8 10 | 11 13
7 San Jose Clash = 2.15 19 13 2.05( 5) 9 11 | 10 12
8 Tampa Bay Mutiny = 1.77 14 20 1.97( 10) 7 11 | 8 12
9 Miami Fusion F.C. = 1.55 13 21 2.02( 8) 6 12 | 8 16
10 New England Revolution = 1.54 12 20 1.98( 9) 3 13 | 4 18
11 Kansas City Wizards = 1.40 8 24 2.15( 1) 2 18 | 5 21
12 MetroStars = 1.03 7 25 2.05( 6) 2 14 | 5 17
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Divisional Rankings
There are two group ratings, the "central mean" and the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean")
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is in a sense the continuous version of the discrete "tri-mean".
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
1 WEST = 2.23 2.19 ( 1) 6
2 EAST = 1.77 1.81 ( 2) 6
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
2 EAST = 1.77 1.81 ( 2) 6
1 WEST = 2.23 2.19 ( 1) 6
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By Division
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2 EAST = 1.77 1.81 ( 2) TEAMS= 6
FINAL Major League Soccer 1999 thru games of Sunday, November 21, 1999
HOME ADVANTAGE= .38 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 6| VS top 8
1 D.C. United = 2.67 28 10 1.87( 12) 11 5 | 14 8
5 Columbus Crew = 2.27 22 15 1.96( 11) 7 8 | 12 11
8 Tampa Bay Mutiny = 1.77 14 20 1.97( 10) 7 11 | 8 12
9 Miami Fusion F.C. = 1.55 13 21 2.02( 8) 6 12 | 8 16
10 New England Revolution = 1.54 12 20 1.98( 9) 3 13 | 4 18
12 MetroStars = 1.03 7 25 2.05( 6) 2 14 | 5 17
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1 WEST = 2.23 2.19 ( 1) TEAMS= 6
FINAL Major League Soccer 1999 thru games of Sunday, November 21, 1999
HOME ADVANTAGE= .38 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 6| VS top 8
2 Los Angeles Galaxy = 2.63 24 14 2.05( 7) 12 10 | 16 12
3 Dallas Burn = 2.46 22 16 2.09( 2) 10 12 | 14 14
4 Chicago Fire = 2.33 19 16 2.08( 4) 8 11 | 11 14
6 Colorado Rapids = 2.18 20 14 2.08( 3) 8 10 | 11 13
7 San Jose Clash = 2.15 19 13 2.05( 5) 9 11 | 10 12
11 Kansas City Wizards = 1.40 8 24 2.15( 1) 2 18 | 5 21
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