All Contents Copyright � 2001 Jeff Sagarintm. All rights reserved.
FINAL 2001 Major League Soccer ratings thru results of SUNDAY, OCTOBER 21
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom)
(3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
(listed top-to-bottom within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced
by each team in the games that it's played so far. The schedule
difficulty of a given game takes into account the rating of the
opponent and the location of the game.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
favored by 1.08 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 6 and top 9 respectively.
For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight
in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all CONNECTED, then
the starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equal
and the ratings are then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on.
The teams are now CONNECTED and the ratings are UNBIASED.
In RATING, all games count equally. This overall RATING is always on the left.
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In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS.
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FINAL Major League Soccer 2001 thru games of Sunday, October 21
HOME ADVANTAGE= .50 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 6 | VS top 9 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
1 San Jose Earthquakes = 2.78 18 8 6 2.02( 10) 8 4 4 | 13 7 6 | 2.65 1 | 2.90 1
2 Miami Fusion F.C. = 2.55 19 8 5 1.92( 11) 5 6 3 | 12 8 3 | 2.60 2 | 2.47 4
3 Chicago Fire = 2.51 18 8 7 1.90( 12) 6 6 3 | 12 7 6 | 2.50 3 | 2.50 2
4 Los Angeles Galaxy = 2.50 17 9 7 2.02( 9) 6 7 4 | 13 8 6 | 2.50 4 | 2.48 3
5 Columbus Crew = 2.31 13 9 6 2.03( 7) 5 5 4 | 8 7 6 | 2.30 5 | 2.29 5
6 MetroStars = 2.21 14 11 4 2.03( 8) 5 7 2 | 8 9 3 | 2.23 6 | 2.19 6
7 Dallas Burn = 1.89 10 13 6 2.04( 6) 4 9 5 | 6 11 5 | 1.86 8 | 1.93 7
8 Kansas City Wizards = 1.81 12 15 3 2.17( 1) 6 12 1 | 8 13 3 | 1.97 7 | 1.62 10
9 Colorado Rapids = 1.59 5 13 8 2.11( 3) 1 10 4 | 2 12 6 | 1.52 10 | 1.68 9
10 D.C. United = 1.59 8 16 2 2.07( 4) 2 12 1 | 4 14 2 | 1.49 11 | 1.70 8
11 New England Revolution = 1.51 7 14 6 2.07( 5) 3 9 3 | 5 11 5 | 1.57 9 | 1.48 11
12 Tampa Bay Mutiny = .74 4 21 2 2.12( 2) 2 12 1 | 3 19 1 | .80 12 | .74 12
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Divisional Rankings
There are two group ratings, the "central mean" and the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean")
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is in a sense the continuous version of the discrete "tri-mean".
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
1 WEST = 2.16 2.17 ( 1) 4
2 EAST = 1.95 1.97 ( 2) 4
3 CENTRAL = 1.94 1.86 ( 3) 4
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
2 EAST = 1.95 1.97 ( 2) 4
3 CENTRAL = 1.94 1.86 ( 3) 4
1 WEST = 2.16 2.17 ( 1) 4
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By Division
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2 EAST = 1.95 1.97 ( 2) TEAMS= 4
FINAL Major League Soccer 2001 thru games of Sunday, October 21
HOME ADVANTAGE= .50 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 6 | VS top 9 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
2 Miami Fusion F.C. = 2.55 19 8 5 1.92( 11) 5 6 3 | 12 8 3 | 2.60 2 | 2.47 4
6 MetroStars = 2.21 14 11 4 2.03( 8) 5 7 2 | 8 9 3 | 2.23 6 | 2.19 6
10 D.C. United = 1.59 8 16 2 2.07( 4) 2 12 1 | 4 14 2 | 1.49 11 | 1.70 8
11 New England Revolution = 1.51 7 14 6 2.07( 5) 3 9 3 | 5 11 5 | 1.57 9 | 1.48 11
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3 CENTRAL = 1.94 1.86 ( 3) TEAMS= 4
FINAL Major League Soccer 2001 thru games of Sunday, October 21
HOME ADVANTAGE= .50 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 6 | VS top 9 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
3 Chicago Fire = 2.51 18 8 7 1.90( 12) 6 6 3 | 12 7 6 | 2.50 3 | 2.50 2
5 Columbus Crew = 2.31 13 9 6 2.03( 7) 5 5 4 | 8 7 6 | 2.30 5 | 2.29 5
7 Dallas Burn = 1.89 10 13 6 2.04( 6) 4 9 5 | 6 11 5 | 1.86 8 | 1.93 7
12 Tampa Bay Mutiny = .74 4 21 2 2.12( 2) 2 12 1 | 3 19 1 | .80 12 | .74 12
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1 WEST = 2.16 2.17 ( 1) TEAMS= 4
FINAL Major League Soccer 2001 thru games of Sunday, October 21
HOME ADVANTAGE= .50 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 6 | VS top 9 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
1 San Jose Earthquakes = 2.78 18 8 6 2.02( 10) 8 4 4 | 13 7 6 | 2.65 1 | 2.90 1
4 Los Angeles Galaxy = 2.50 17 9 7 2.02( 9) 6 7 4 | 13 8 6 | 2.50 4 | 2.48 3
8 Kansas City Wizards = 1.81 12 15 3 2.17( 1) 6 12 1 | 8 13 3 | 1.97 7 | 1.62 10
9 Colorado Rapids = 1.59 5 13 8 2.11( 3) 1 10 4 | 2 12 6 | 1.52 10 | 1.68 9
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