All Contents Copyright � 2002 Jeff Sagarintm. All rights reserved.
Final NHL Ratings 2001-2002 thru results of THURSDAY, JUNE 13, 2002
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced
by each team in the games that it's played so far. The schedule
difficulty of a given game takes into account the rating of the
opponent and the location of the game.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .25 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .57 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .42 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .25 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight
in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all CONNECTED, then
the starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equal
and the ratings are then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on.
The teams are now CONNECTED and the ratings are UNBIASED.
In RATING, all games count equally. This overall RATING is always on the left.
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In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS.
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Final NHL 2001-2002 thru Thursday, June 13, 2002
HOME ADVANTAGE= .27 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
1 Detroit Red Wings = 5.07 67 28 10 4.12( 5) 32 16 4 | 40 20 6 | 5.17 1 | 5.00 1
2 Colorado Avalanche = 4.61 56 39 8 4.18( 1) 26 27 1 | 34 33 2 | 4.64 2 | 4.58 4
3 San Jose Sharks = 4.60 51 35 8 4.09( 11) 17 19 2 | 29 25 4 | 4.56 3 | 4.64 2
4 St. Louis Blues = 4.55 48 36 8 4.13( 4) 19 21 4 | 25 28 5 | 4.51 4 | 4.59 3
5 Vancouver Canucks = 4.44 44 37 7 4.14( 2) 11 23 5 | 18 31 5 | 4.37 6 | 4.51 5
6 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.35 53 39 10 3.98( 18) 14 11 0 | 25 23 3 | 4.36 7 | 4.34 8
7 Los Angeles Kings = 4.34 43 35 11 4.10( 9) 20 15 4 | 24 23 7 | 4.35 8 | 4.33 9
8 Ottawa Senators = 4.31 46 39 9 3.98( 17) 9 14 1 | 24 22 3 | 4.19 14 | 4.45 6
9 Edmonton Oilers = 4.31 38 32 12 4.07( 15) 11 16 6 | 17 21 8 | 4.27 9 | 4.35 7
10 Chicago Blackhawks = 4.28 42 32 13 4.10( 10) 18 15 5 | 23 22 8 | 4.41 5 | 4.17 15
Final NHL 2001-2002 thru Thursday, June 13, 2002
HOME ADVANTAGE= .27 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
11 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.24 43 34 10 3.92( 28) 10 13 2 | 17 21 4 | 4.21 12 | 4.28 11
12 Phoenix Coyotes = 4.23 41 37 9 4.10( 8) 14 23 5 | 19 28 6 | 4.23 11 | 4.24 12
13 Boston Bruins = 4.22 45 37 6 3.91( 29) 9 11 1 | 15 18 3 | 4.16 17 | 4.29 10
14 New York Islanders = 4.21 45 36 8 3.96( 21) 11 14 2 | 21 20 3 | 4.24 10 | 4.19 13
15 New Jersey Devils = 4.17 43 36 9 3.94( 24) 12 7 2 | 20 15 3 | 4.17 15 | 4.17 14
16 Dallas Stars = 4.14 36 33 13 4.07( 14) 15 14 7 | 19 20 8 | 4.17 16 | 4.11 16
17 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.11 48 41 16 4.00( 16) 11 19 2 | 22 31 4 | 4.19 13 | 4.02 18
18 Buffalo Sabres = 3.98 35 36 11 3.94( 26) 8 11 2 | 17 19 5 | 3.91 20 | 4.05 17
19 Montreal Canadiens = 3.95 42 40 12 3.95( 22) 6 10 5 | 18 20 8 | 4.01 18 | 3.89 19
20 Calgary Flames = 3.87 32 38 12 4.08( 13) 15 15 8 | 19 23 9 | 3.88 21 | 3.86 20
Final NHL 2001-2002 thru Thursday, June 13, 2002
HOME ADVANTAGE= .27 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
21 Washington Capitals = 3.85 36 35 11 3.89( 30) 6 11 2 | 13 22 4 | 3.92 19 | 3.77 22
22 Nashville Predators = 3.68 28 41 13 4.11( 7) 11 21 7 | 15 30 7 | 3.67 23 | 3.68 23
23 Anaheim Mighty Ducks = 3.67 29 45 8 4.08( 12) 6 26 4 | 15 31 6 | 3.55 24 | 3.78 21
24 New York Rangers = 3.66 36 42 4 3.94( 23) 6 13 1 | 15 25 2 | 3.75 22 | 3.57 25
25 Minnesota Wild = 3.56 26 44 12 4.12( 6) 9 23 6 | 14 29 9 | 3.51 25 | 3.60 24
26 Tampa Bay Lightning = 3.39 27 44 11 3.92( 27) 4 13 3 | 8 24 6 | 3.36 26 | 3.43 26
27 Pittsburgh Penguins = 3.33 28 46 8 3.96( 20) 5 15 0 | 12 28 2 | 3.35 27 | 3.30 27
28 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.09 22 52 8 4.14( 3) 6 28 3 | 10 36 5 | 3.11 28 | 3.07 28
29 Florida Panthers = 3.02 22 50 10 3.94( 25) 4 13 2 | 7 27 4 | 2.99 29 | 3.05 29
30 Atlanta Thrashers = 2.77 19 52 11 3.96( 19) 7 11 0 | 10 26 2 | 2.81 30 | 2.72 30
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Divisional Rankings
There are two group ratings, the "central mean" and the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean")
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is in a sense the continuous version of the discrete "tri-mean".
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
1 PACIFIC (west) = 4.21 4.20 ( 1) 5
2 NORTHWEST (west) = 4.19 4.15 ( 3) 5
3 NORTHEAST (EAST) = 4.17 4.16 ( 2) 5
4 CENTRAL (west) = 4.16 4.13 ( 4) 5
5 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 3.98 3.92 ( 5) 5
6 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 3.42 3.43 ( 6) 5
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
5 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 3.98 3.92 ( 5) 5
3 NORTHEAST (EAST) = 4.17 4.16 ( 2) 5
6 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 3.42 3.43 ( 6) 5
4 CENTRAL (west) = 4.16 4.13 ( 4) 5
2 NORTHWEST (west) = 4.19 4.15 ( 3) 5
1 PACIFIC (west) = 4.21 4.20 ( 1) 5
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By Division
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5 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 3.98 3.92 ( 5) TEAMS= 5
Final NHL 2001-2002 thru Thursday, June 13, 2002
HOME ADVANTAGE= .27 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
11 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.24 43 34 10 3.92( 28) 10 13 2 | 17 21 4 | 4.21 12 | 4.28 11
14 New York Islanders = 4.21 45 36 8 3.96( 21) 11 14 2 | 21 20 3 | 4.24 10 | 4.19 13
15 New Jersey Devils = 4.17 43 36 9 3.94( 24) 12 7 2 | 20 15 3 | 4.17 15 | 4.17 14
24 New York Rangers = 3.66 36 42 4 3.94( 23) 6 13 1 | 15 25 2 | 3.75 22 | 3.57 25
27 Pittsburgh Penguins = 3.33 28 46 8 3.96( 20) 5 15 0 | 12 28 2 | 3.35 27 | 3.30 27
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3 NORTHEAST (EAST) = 4.17 4.16 ( 2) TEAMS= 5
Final NHL 2001-2002 thru Thursday, June 13, 2002
HOME ADVANTAGE= .27 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
6 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.35 53 39 10 3.98( 18) 14 11 0 | 25 23 3 | 4.36 7 | 4.34 8
8 Ottawa Senators = 4.31 46 39 9 3.98( 17) 9 14 1 | 24 22 3 | 4.19 14 | 4.45 6
13 Boston Bruins = 4.22 45 37 6 3.91( 29) 9 11 1 | 15 18 3 | 4.16 17 | 4.29 10
18 Buffalo Sabres = 3.98 35 36 11 3.94( 26) 8 11 2 | 17 19 5 | 3.91 20 | 4.05 17
19 Montreal Canadiens = 3.95 42 40 12 3.95( 22) 6 10 5 | 18 20 8 | 4.01 18 | 3.89 19
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6 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 3.42 3.43 ( 6) TEAMS= 5
Final NHL 2001-2002 thru Thursday, June 13, 2002
HOME ADVANTAGE= .27 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
17 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.11 48 41 16 4.00( 16) 11 19 2 | 22 31 4 | 4.19 13 | 4.02 18
21 Washington Capitals = 3.85 36 35 11 3.89( 30) 6 11 2 | 13 22 4 | 3.92 19 | 3.77 22
26 Tampa Bay Lightning = 3.39 27 44 11 3.92( 27) 4 13 3 | 8 24 6 | 3.36 26 | 3.43 26
29 Florida Panthers = 3.02 22 50 10 3.94( 25) 4 13 2 | 7 27 4 | 2.99 29 | 3.05 29
30 Atlanta Thrashers = 2.77 19 52 11 3.96( 19) 7 11 0 | 10 26 2 | 2.81 30 | 2.72 30
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4 CENTRAL (west) = 4.16 4.13 ( 4) TEAMS= 5
Final NHL 2001-2002 thru Thursday, June 13, 2002
HOME ADVANTAGE= .27 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
1 Detroit Red Wings = 5.07 67 28 10 4.12( 5) 32 16 4 | 40 20 6 | 5.17 1 | 5.00 1
4 St. Louis Blues = 4.55 48 36 8 4.13( 4) 19 21 4 | 25 28 5 | 4.51 4 | 4.59 3
10 Chicago Blackhawks = 4.28 42 32 13 4.10( 10) 18 15 5 | 23 22 8 | 4.41 5 | 4.17 15
22 Nashville Predators = 3.68 28 41 13 4.11( 7) 11 21 7 | 15 30 7 | 3.67 23 | 3.68 23
28 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.09 22 52 8 4.14( 3) 6 28 3 | 10 36 5 | 3.11 28 | 3.07 28
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2 NORTHWEST (west) = 4.19 4.15 ( 3) TEAMS= 5
Final NHL 2001-2002 thru Thursday, June 13, 2002
HOME ADVANTAGE= .27 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
2 Colorado Avalanche = 4.61 56 39 8 4.18( 1) 26 27 1 | 34 33 2 | 4.64 2 | 4.58 4
5 Vancouver Canucks = 4.44 44 37 7 4.14( 2) 11 23 5 | 18 31 5 | 4.37 6 | 4.51 5
9 Edmonton Oilers = 4.31 38 32 12 4.07( 15) 11 16 6 | 17 21 8 | 4.27 9 | 4.35 7
20 Calgary Flames = 3.87 32 38 12 4.08( 13) 15 15 8 | 19 23 9 | 3.88 21 | 3.86 20
25 Minnesota Wild = 3.56 26 44 12 4.12( 6) 9 23 6 | 14 29 9 | 3.51 25 | 3.60 24
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1 PACIFIC (west) = 4.21 4.20 ( 1) TEAMS= 5
Final NHL 2001-2002 thru Thursday, June 13, 2002
HOME ADVANTAGE= .27 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
3 San Jose Sharks = 4.60 51 35 8 4.09( 11) 17 19 2 | 29 25 4 | 4.56 3 | 4.64 2
7 Los Angeles Kings = 4.34 43 35 11 4.10( 9) 20 15 4 | 24 23 7 | 4.35 8 | 4.33 9
12 Phoenix Coyotes = 4.23 41 37 9 4.10( 8) 14 23 5 | 19 28 6 | 4.23 11 | 4.24 12
16 Dallas Stars = 4.14 36 33 13 4.07( 14) 15 14 7 | 19 20 8 | 4.17 16 | 4.11 16
23 Anaheim Mighty Ducks = 3.67 29 45 8 4.08( 12) 6 26 4 | 15 31 6 | 3.55 24 | 3.78 21
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