All Contents Copyright © 2005 Jeff Sagarintm. All rights reserved.
Final NFL 2004 Ratings thru results of SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2005 _ Super Bowl
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced
by each team in the games that it's played so far. The schedule
difficulty of a given game takes into account the rating of the
opponent and the location of the game.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
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In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).
NFL ratings will be updated after games of Sunday and again after the Monday night game.
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Final NFL 2004 Ratings thru Sunday, February 6, 2005 _ Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.41 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS
1 New England Patriots = 35.32 17 2 0 22.62( 7) 10 1 0 | 11 1 0 | 39.13 1 | 33.72 1
2 Pittsburgh Steelers = 30.60 16 2 0 22.82( 6) 8 2 0 | 9 2 0 | 35.46 2 | 28.45 4
3 Philadelphia Eagles = 29.00 15 4 0 19.42( 19) 1 3 0 | 5 3 0 | 28.14 3 | 29.85 3
4 Indianapolis Colts = 28.71 13 5 0 21.17( 11) 3 3 0 | 8 5 0 | 27.12 4 | 30.85 2
5 New York Jets = 27.50 11 7 0 22.94( 4) 4 6 0 | 5 6 0 | 26.94 5 | 27.92 6
6 Baltimore Ravens = 26.11 9 7 0 23.43( 2) 4 5 0 | 4 6 0 | 24.94 6 | 27.32 8
7 San Diego Chargers = 25.84 12 5 0 19.90( 18) 1 4 0 | 5 5 0 | 24.17 7 | 27.78 7
8 Buffalo Bills = 25.73 9 7 0 21.72( 8) 2 5 0 | 2 6 0 | 23.67 8 | 28.38 5
9 Cincinnati Bengals = 22.95 8 8 0 22.98( 3) 3 6 0 | 3 6 0 | 22.56 9 | 23.16 10
10 Denver Broncos = 22.04 10 7 0 20.40( 15) 2 3 0 | 4 6 0 | 21.64 12 | 22.27 11
Final NFL 2004 Ratings thru Sunday, February 6, 2005 _ Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.41 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS
11 Jacksonville Jaguars = 21.51 9 7 0 20.81( 12) 3 3 0 | 5 6 0 | 22.04 10 | 20.80 12
12 Kansas City Chiefs = 21.31 7 9 0 21.20( 10) 3 4 0 | 4 6 0 | 19.30 14 | 23.25 9
13 Atlanta Falcons = 20.27 12 6 0 17.45( 31) 2 1 0 | 2 2 0 | 21.65 11 | 18.72 16
14 Minnesota Vikings = 19.67 9 9 0 19.19( 21) 0 3 0 | 3 5 0 | 19.33 13 | 19.83 13
15 Green Bay Packers = 19.37 10 7 0 18.31( 26) 0 2 0 | 3 4 0 | 19.25 15 | 19.31 14
16 Houston Texans = 18.71 7 9 0 20.42( 14) 0 5 0 | 3 7 0 | 18.46 17 | 18.77 15
17 Carolina Panthers = 17.49 7 9 0 18.07( 27) 0 3 0 | 1 6 0 | 16.57 22 | 18.18 17
18 New York Giants = 17.13 6 10 0 20.24( 16) 0 5 0 | 2 6 0 | 16.59 21 | 17.49 19
19 Seattle Seahawks = 17.08 9 8 0 17.62( 29) 0 3 0 | 2 3 0 | 17.47 19 | 16.51 22
20 Cleveland Browns = 16.99 4 12 0 24.23( 1) 2 9 0 | 3 9 0 | 16.88 20 | 16.92 21
Final NFL 2004 Ratings thru Sunday, February 6, 2005 _ Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.41 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS
21 Washington Redskins = 16.83 6 10 0 19.35( 20) 0 5 0 | 1 6 0 | 15.52 26 | 17.85 18
22 St. Louis Rams = 16.63 9 9 0 18.96( 22) 2 2 0 | 2 5 0 | 19.09 16 | 13.25 30
23 Miami Dolphins = 16.34 4 12 0 22.87( 5) 1 9 0 | 1 9 0 | 14.90 28 | 17.45 20
24 Detroit Lions = 16.11 6 10 0 18.88( 23) 0 2 0 | 2 7 0 | 15.67 25 | 16.36 23
25 Dallas Cowboys = 15.92 6 10 0 20.23( 17) 0 5 0 | 0 7 0 | 16.50 23 | 15.11 25
26 New Orleans Saints = 15.90 8 8 0 17.47( 30) 0 2 0 | 2 4 0 | 17.48 18 | 13.81 28
27 Oakland Raiders = 15.42 5 11 0 21.62( 9) 2 5 0 | 2 10 0 | 16.15 24 | 14.43 27
28 Arizona Cardinals = 15.39 6 10 0 17.90( 28) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 14.57 29 | 15.98 24
29 Tennessee Titans = 14.52 5 11 0 20.62( 13) 1 4 0 | 3 9 0 | 15.43 27 | 13.29 29
30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 14.08 5 11 0 17.34( 32) 0 2 0 | 2 3 0 | 12.94 31 | 14.91 26
Final NFL 2004 Ratings thru Sunday, February 6, 2005 _ Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.41 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS
31 Chicago Bears = 12.97 5 11 0 18.33( 25) 0 2 0 | 2 6 0 | 13.35 30 | 12.38 31
32 San Francisco 49ers = 6.57 2 14 0 18.79( 24) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 7.09 32 | 5.72 32
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Divisional Rankings
There are two group ratings, the "central mean" and the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean")
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is in a sense the continuous version of the discrete "tri-mean".
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
1 (afc east) = 26.35 26.22 ( 1) 4
2 (afc north) = 24.28 24.16 ( 2) 4
3 (afc west) = 21.33 21.15 ( 3) 4
4 (afc south) = 20.61 20.86 ( 4) 4
5 (NFC EAST) = 18.81 19.72 ( 5) 4
6 (NFC NORTH) = 17.27 17.03 ( 6) 4
7 (NFC SOUTH) = 16.86 16.94 ( 7) 4
8 (NFC WEST) = 14.61 13.92 ( 8) 4
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
5 (NFC EAST) = 18.81 19.72 ( 5) 4
6 (NFC NORTH) = 17.27 17.03 ( 6) 4
7 (NFC SOUTH) = 16.86 16.94 ( 7) 4
8 (NFC WEST) = 14.61 13.92 ( 8) 4
1 (afc east) = 26.35 26.22 ( 1) 4
2 (afc north) = 24.28 24.16 ( 2) 4
4 (afc south) = 20.61 20.86 ( 4) 4
3 (afc west) = 21.33 21.15 ( 3) 4
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By Division
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5 (NFC EAST) = 18.81 19.72 ( 5) TEAMS= 4
Final NFL 2004 Ratings thru Sunday, February 6, 2005 _ Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.41 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS
3 Philadelphia Eagles = 29.00 15 4 0 19.42( 19) 1 3 0 | 5 3 0 | 28.14 3 | 29.85 3
18 New York Giants = 17.13 6 10 0 20.24( 16) 0 5 0 | 2 6 0 | 16.59 21 | 17.49 19
21 Washington Redskins = 16.83 6 10 0 19.35( 20) 0 5 0 | 1 6 0 | 15.52 26 | 17.85 18
25 Dallas Cowboys = 15.92 6 10 0 20.23( 17) 0 5 0 | 0 7 0 | 16.50 23 | 15.11 25
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6 (NFC NORTH) = 17.27 17.03 ( 6) TEAMS= 4
Final NFL 2004 Ratings thru Sunday, February 6, 2005 _ Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.41 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS
14 Minnesota Vikings = 19.67 9 9 0 19.19( 21) 0 3 0 | 3 5 0 | 19.33 13 | 19.83 13
15 Green Bay Packers = 19.37 10 7 0 18.31( 26) 0 2 0 | 3 4 0 | 19.25 15 | 19.31 14
24 Detroit Lions = 16.11 6 10 0 18.88( 23) 0 2 0 | 2 7 0 | 15.67 25 | 16.36 23
31 Chicago Bears = 12.97 5 11 0 18.33( 25) 0 2 0 | 2 6 0 | 13.35 30 | 12.38 31
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7 (NFC SOUTH) = 16.86 16.94 ( 7) TEAMS= 4
Final NFL 2004 Ratings thru Sunday, February 6, 2005 _ Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.41 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS
13 Atlanta Falcons = 20.27 12 6 0 17.45( 31) 2 1 0 | 2 2 0 | 21.65 11 | 18.72 16
17 Carolina Panthers = 17.49 7 9 0 18.07( 27) 0 3 0 | 1 6 0 | 16.57 22 | 18.18 17
26 New Orleans Saints = 15.90 8 8 0 17.47( 30) 0 2 0 | 2 4 0 | 17.48 18 | 13.81 28
30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 14.08 5 11 0 17.34( 32) 0 2 0 | 2 3 0 | 12.94 31 | 14.91 26
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8 (NFC WEST) = 14.61 13.92 ( 8) TEAMS= 4
Final NFL 2004 Ratings thru Sunday, February 6, 2005 _ Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.41 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS
19 Seattle Seahawks = 17.08 9 8 0 17.62( 29) 0 3 0 | 2 3 0 | 17.47 19 | 16.51 22
22 St. Louis Rams = 16.63 9 9 0 18.96( 22) 2 2 0 | 2 5 0 | 19.09 16 | 13.25 30
28 Arizona Cardinals = 15.39 6 10 0 17.90( 28) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 14.57 29 | 15.98 24
32 San Francisco 49ers = 6.57 2 14 0 18.79( 24) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 7.09 32 | 5.72 32
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1 (afc east) = 26.35 26.22 ( 1) TEAMS= 4
Final NFL 2004 Ratings thru Sunday, February 6, 2005 _ Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.41 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS
1 New England Patriots = 35.32 17 2 0 22.62( 7) 10 1 0 | 11 1 0 | 39.13 1 | 33.72 1
5 New York Jets = 27.50 11 7 0 22.94( 4) 4 6 0 | 5 6 0 | 26.94 5 | 27.92 6
8 Buffalo Bills = 25.73 9 7 0 21.72( 8) 2 5 0 | 2 6 0 | 23.67 8 | 28.38 5
23 Miami Dolphins = 16.34 4 12 0 22.87( 5) 1 9 0 | 1 9 0 | 14.90 28 | 17.45 20
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2 (afc north) = 24.28 24.16 ( 2) TEAMS= 4
Final NFL 2004 Ratings thru Sunday, February 6, 2005 _ Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.41 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS
2 Pittsburgh Steelers = 30.60 16 2 0 22.82( 6) 8 2 0 | 9 2 0 | 35.46 2 | 28.45 4
6 Baltimore Ravens = 26.11 9 7 0 23.43( 2) 4 5 0 | 4 6 0 | 24.94 6 | 27.32 8
9 Cincinnati Bengals = 22.95 8 8 0 22.98( 3) 3 6 0 | 3 6 0 | 22.56 9 | 23.16 10
20 Cleveland Browns = 16.99 4 12 0 24.23( 1) 2 9 0 | 3 9 0 | 16.88 20 | 16.92 21
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4 (afc south) = 20.61 20.86 ( 4) TEAMS= 4
Final NFL 2004 Ratings thru Sunday, February 6, 2005 _ Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.41 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS
4 Indianapolis Colts = 28.71 13 5 0 21.17( 11) 3 3 0 | 8 5 0 | 27.12 4 | 30.85 2
11 Jacksonville Jaguars = 21.51 9 7 0 20.81( 12) 3 3 0 | 5 6 0 | 22.04 10 | 20.80 12
16 Houston Texans = 18.71 7 9 0 20.42( 14) 0 5 0 | 3 7 0 | 18.46 17 | 18.77 15
29 Tennessee Titans = 14.52 5 11 0 20.62( 13) 1 4 0 | 3 9 0 | 15.43 27 | 13.29 29
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3 (afc west) = 21.33 21.15 ( 3) TEAMS= 4
Final NFL 2004 Ratings thru Sunday, February 6, 2005 _ Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.41 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PURE POINTS
7 San Diego Chargers = 25.84 12 5 0 19.90( 18) 1 4 0 | 5 5 0 | 24.17 7 | 27.78 7
10 Denver Broncos = 22.04 10 7 0 20.40( 15) 2 3 0 | 4 6 0 | 21.64 12 | 22.27 11
12 Kansas City Chiefs = 21.31 7 9 0 21.20( 10) 3 4 0 | 4 6 0 | 19.30 14 | 23.25 9
27 Oakland Raiders = 15.42 5 11 0 21.62( 9) 2 5 0 | 2 10 0 | 16.15 24 | 14.43 27
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