All Contents Copyright © 2015 Jeff Sagarintm. All rights reserved.
FINAL 2015 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of DECEMBER 6 SUNDAY - MLS CUP
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom)
(3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
(listed top-to-bottom within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
favored by 1.08 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5 and top 10 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
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FINAL Major League Soccer 2015 through games of December 6 Sunday - MLS Cup League Championship Game
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.59] [ 0.58] [ 0.59] [ 0.59]
1 New York Red Bulls = 2.45 21 11 6 1.93( 19) 4 3 1 | 6 4 4 | 2.46 1 | 2.46 1 | 2.41 2
2 Portland Timbers = 2.42 19 11 10 2.02( 9) 5 4 1 | 10 7 8 | 2.36 2 | 2.39 2 | 2.66 1
3 FC Dallas = 2.29 19 12 7 2.04( 7) 3 4 3 | 8 10 5 | 2.31 3 | 2.31 3 | 2.25 3
4 Seattle Sounders FC = 2.25 17 14 6 2.02( 8) 5 3 1 | 8 10 5 | 2.28 4 | 2.26 4 | 2.22 5
5 Columbus Crew SC = 2.18 17 14 8 1.98( 16) 3 6 0 | 5 10 2 | 2.15 7 | 2.15 7 | 2.25 4
6 San Jose Earthquakes = 2.15 13 13 8 2.02( 10) 3 4 3 | 8 6 5 | 2.13 8 | 2.14 8 | 2.19 6
7 Montreal Impact = 2.14 17 14 6 1.93( 20) 5 3 1 | 6 4 3 | 2.12 9 | 2.11 10 | 2.17 7
8 LA Galaxy = 2.11 14 12 9 2.07( 1) 5 3 4 | 7 8 5 | 2.23 5 | 2.21 5 | 1.91 10
9 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 2.05 16 14 6 2.06( 3) 4 4 5 | 7 8 6 | 2.20 6 | 2.17 6 | 1.78 18
10 Sporting Kansas City = 2.03 14 12 9 2.06( 2) 4 3 5 | 8 6 5 | 2.12 10 | 2.12 9 | 1.85 13
FINAL Major League Soccer 2015 through games of December 6 Sunday - MLS Cup League Championship Game
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.59] [ 0.58] [ 0.59] [ 0.59]
11 New England Revolution = 1.95 14 13 8 1.98( 17) 2 5 1 | 3 9 3 | 1.95 11 | 1.97 11 | 1.91 11
12 D.C. United = 1.84 16 15 6 1.99( 15) 1 9 1 | 5 11 2 | 1.86 12 | 1.88 12 | 1.79 17
13 Orlando City SC = 1.84 12 14 8 1.96( 18) 3 4 1 | 6 6 3 | 1.67 19 | 1.70 17 | 2.05 8
14 Houston Dynamo = 1.83 11 14 9 2.06( 4) 3 5 2 | 9 8 5 | 1.84 13 | 1.84 13 | 1.81 15
15 Real Salt Lake = 1.82 11 15 8 2.05( 5) 1 6 2 | 5 12 5 | 1.79 15 | 1.80 15 | 1.87 12
16 Toronto FC = 1.79 15 16 4 2.00( 12) 2 5 1 | 6 9 1 | 1.80 14 | 1.81 14 | 1.76 19
17 Philadelphia Union = 1.79 10 17 7 1.99( 14) 4 5 0 | 6 8 1 | 1.69 18 | 1.68 19 | 1.93 9
18 Colorado Rapids = 1.79 9 15 10 2.04( 6) 2 5 3 | 6 10 5 | 1.77 16 | 1.77 16 | 1.82 14
19 New York City FC = 1.74 10 17 7 1.99( 13) 0 7 1 | 4 10 1 | 1.70 17 | 1.70 18 | 1.80 16
20 Chicago Fire = 1.55 8 20 6 2.02( 11) 3 5 1 | 4 11 1 | 1.56 20 | 1.53 20 | 1.57 20
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Conference Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 WESTERN = 2.07 2.07 ( 1) 10 2.07 ( 1)
2 EASTERN = 1.90 1.93 ( 2) 10 1.92 ( 2)
CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
2 EASTERN = 1.90 1.93 ( 2) 10 1.92 ( 2)
1 WESTERN = 2.07 2.07 ( 1) 10 2.07 ( 1)
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By Conference
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2 EASTERN = 1.90 1.93 ( 2) TEAMS= 10 1.92 ( 2)
FINAL Major League Soccer 2015 through games of December 6 Sunday - MLS Cup League Championship Game
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.59] [ 0.58] [ 0.59] [ 0.59]
1 New York Red Bulls = 2.45 21 11 6 1.93( 19) 4 3 1 | 6 4 4 | 2.46 1 | 2.46 1 | 2.41 2
5 Columbus Crew SC = 2.18 17 14 8 1.98( 16) 3 6 0 | 5 10 2 | 2.15 7 | 2.15 7 | 2.25 4
7 Montreal Impact = 2.14 17 14 6 1.93( 20) 5 3 1 | 6 4 3 | 2.12 9 | 2.11 10 | 2.17 7
11 New England Revolution = 1.95 14 13 8 1.98( 17) 2 5 1 | 3 9 3 | 1.95 11 | 1.97 11 | 1.91 11
12 D.C. United = 1.84 16 15 6 1.99( 15) 1 9 1 | 5 11 2 | 1.86 12 | 1.88 12 | 1.79 17
13 Orlando City SC = 1.84 12 14 8 1.96( 18) 3 4 1 | 6 6 3 | 1.67 19 | 1.70 17 | 2.05 8
16 Toronto FC = 1.79 15 16 4 2.00( 12) 2 5 1 | 6 9 1 | 1.80 14 | 1.81 14 | 1.76 19
17 Philadelphia Union = 1.79 10 17 7 1.99( 14) 4 5 0 | 6 8 1 | 1.69 18 | 1.68 19 | 1.93 9
19 New York City FC = 1.74 10 17 7 1.99( 13) 0 7 1 | 4 10 1 | 1.70 17 | 1.70 18 | 1.80 16
20 Chicago Fire = 1.55 8 20 6 2.02( 11) 3 5 1 | 4 11 1 | 1.56 20 | 1.53 20 | 1.57 20
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1 WESTERN = 2.07 2.07 ( 1) TEAMS= 10 2.07 ( 1)
FINAL Major League Soccer 2015 through games of December 6 Sunday - MLS Cup League Championship Game
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.59] [ 0.58] [ 0.59] [ 0.59]
2 Portland Timbers = 2.42 19 11 10 2.02( 9) 5 4 1 | 10 7 8 | 2.36 2 | 2.39 2 | 2.66 1
3 FC Dallas = 2.29 19 12 7 2.04( 7) 3 4 3 | 8 10 5 | 2.31 3 | 2.31 3 | 2.25 3
4 Seattle Sounders FC = 2.25 17 14 6 2.02( 8) 5 3 1 | 8 10 5 | 2.28 4 | 2.26 4 | 2.22 5
6 San Jose Earthquakes = 2.15 13 13 8 2.02( 10) 3 4 3 | 8 6 5 | 2.13 8 | 2.14 8 | 2.19 6
8 LA Galaxy = 2.11 14 12 9 2.07( 1) 5 3 4 | 7 8 5 | 2.23 5 | 2.21 5 | 1.91 10
9 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 2.05 16 14 6 2.06( 3) 4 4 5 | 7 8 6 | 2.20 6 | 2.17 6 | 1.78 18
10 Sporting Kansas City = 2.03 14 12 9 2.06( 2) 4 3 5 | 8 6 5 | 2.12 10 | 2.12 9 | 1.85 13
14 Houston Dynamo = 1.83 11 14 9 2.06( 4) 3 5 2 | 9 8 5 | 1.84 13 | 1.84 13 | 1.81 15
15 Real Salt Lake = 1.82 11 15 8 2.05( 5) 1 6 2 | 5 12 5 | 1.79 15 | 1.80 15 | 1.87 12
18 Colorado Rapids = 1.79 9 15 10 2.04( 6) 2 5 3 | 6 10 5 | 1.77 16 | 1.77 16 | 1.82 14
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