All Contents Copyright © 2019 Jeff Sagarintm. All rights reserved.
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
Final NFL 2018 Ratings through results of 2019 FEBRUARY 3 SUNDAY - Super Bowl
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Final NFL 2018 through games of 2019 February 3 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.33] [ 2.51] [ 2.51]
1 New England Patriots = 28.42 14 5 0 19.84( 23) 6 1 0 | 8 2 0 | 28.15 2 | 27.42 4 | 29.13 1 (afc east)
2 Kansas City Chiefs = 27.67 13 5 0 20.57( 13) 4 5 0 | 5 5 0 | 28.25 1 | 28.55 1 | 26.66 4 (afc west)
3 Los Angeles Rams = 26.40 15 4 0 20.57( 14) 5 3 0 | 7 4 0 | 27.47 4 | 27.82 3 | 24.68 7 (NFC WEST)
4 New Orleans Saints = 26.18 14 4 0 20.50( 17) 3 1 0 | 7 2 0 | 28.03 3 | 27.99 2 | 23.65 10 (NFC SOUTH)
5 Chicago Bears = 25.63 12 5 0 18.23( 32) 2 1 0 | 4 2 0 | 25.13 7 | 25.90 6 | 27.00 2 (NFC NORTH)
6 Los Angeles Chargers = 25.32 13 5 0 21.06( 4) 4 4 0 | 6 4 0 | 25.57 5 | 26.31 5 | 24.84 6 (afc west)
7 Baltimore Ravens = 25.30 10 7 0 20.54( 16) 2 4 0 | 4 5 0 | 25.27 6 | 25.05 7 | 25.39 5 (afc north)
8 Indianapolis Colts = 24.38 11 7 0 19.39( 28) 0 2 0 | 5 4 0 | 23.51 11 | 23.59 11 | 26.97 3 (afc south)
9 Pittsburgh Steelers = 24.28 9 6 1 20.98( 6) 2 4 0 | 3 4 1 | 24.78 8 | 24.67 8 | 23.30 11 (afc north)
10 Seattle Seahawks = 24.20 10 7 0 19.62( 25) 1 4 0 | 3 5 0 | 24.32 9 | 24.12 9 | 23.95 9 (NFC WEST)
Final NFL 2018 through games of 2019 February 3 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.33] [ 2.51] [ 2.51]
11 Houston Texans = 23.35 11 6 0 19.31( 29) 1 3 0 | 4 5 0 | 23.54 10 | 23.62 10 | 22.96 12 (afc south)
12 Philadelphia Eagles = 22.94 10 8 0 20.93( 8) 3 2 0 | 4 6 0 | 22.40 12 | 22.64 12 | 24.27 8 (NFC EAST)
13 Dallas Cowboys = 21.49 11 7 0 20.71( 10) 2 3 0 | 4 5 0 | 20.97 14 | 21.54 13 | 22.71 13 (NFC EAST)
14 Minnesota Vikings = 21.27 8 7 1 19.61( 26) 0 6 0 | 1 6 0 | 21.25 13 | 20.48 15 | 21.31 16 (NFC NORTH)
15 Tennessee Titans = 21.26 9 7 0 20.17( 19) 1 4 0 | 4 5 0 | 20.74 15 | 21.46 14 | 22.44 15 (afc south)
16 Cleveland Browns = 20.64 7 8 1 20.95( 7) 1 5 1 | 1 6 1 | 19.84 17 | 19.77 17 | 22.52 14 (afc north)
17 Carolina Panthers = 20.41 7 9 0 20.65( 11) 2 3 0 | 4 4 0 | 20.14 16 | 20.26 16 | 21.04 17 (NFC SOUTH)
18 Atlanta Falcons = 19.18 7 9 0 19.95( 21) 0 4 0 | 0 7 0 | 18.83 19 | 18.97 18 | 19.95 19 (NFC SOUTH)
19 Denver Broncos = 18.25 6 10 0 20.55( 15) 3 5 0 | 3 7 0 | 19.40 18 | 18.05 19 | 15.28 26 (afc west)
20 Detroit Lions = 18.12 6 10 0 19.56( 27) 1 4 0 | 1 7 0 | 17.00 23 | 16.89 21 | 20.39 18 (NFC NORTH)
Final NFL 2018 through games of 2019 February 3 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.33] [ 2.51] [ 2.51]
21 Green Bay Packers = 17.31 6 9 1 19.11( 30) 1 4 0 | 1 5 1 | 18.61 20 | 17.09 20 | 13.43 29 (NFC NORTH)
22 New York Giants = 17.20 5 11 0 20.61( 12) 1 2 0 | 2 7 0 | 17.26 21 | 16.43 25 | 17.10 20 (NFC EAST)
23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 16.71 5 11 0 21.02( 5) 1 4 0 | 3 5 0 | 17.17 22 | 16.66 23 | 15.61 24 (NFC SOUTH)
24 Jacksonville Jaguars = 16.63 5 11 0 21.16( 3) 2 3 0 | 2 9 0 | 16.56 25 | 16.57 24 | 16.80 21 (afc south)
25 Cincinnati Bengals = 16.51 6 10 0 21.71( 1) 2 6 0 | 2 8 0 | 16.87 24 | 16.85 22 | 15.67 23 (afc north)
26 Washington Redskins = 15.60 7 9 0 19.86( 22) 0 2 0 | 1 7 0 | 16.11 26 | 16.38 26 | 14.32 28 (NFC EAST)
27 San Francisco 49ers = 15.05 4 12 0 20.14( 20) 1 6 0 | 1 7 0 | 14.92 27 | 13.66 28 | 15.35 25 (NFC WEST)
28 Buffalo Bills = 14.28 6 10 0 20.31( 18) 0 6 0 | 2 7 0 | 12.93 28 | 14.67 27 | 16.39 22 (afc east)
29 Oakland Raiders = 12.65 4 12 0 21.48( 2) 1 8 0 | 2 8 0 | 11.09 31 | 11.49 31 | 14.79 27 (afc west)
30 Miami Dolphins = 12.19 7 9 0 19.08( 31) 2 2 0 | 3 4 0 | 12.34 29 | 13.38 29 | 11.87 30 (afc east)
Final NFL 2018 through games of 2019 February 3 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.33] [ 2.51] [ 2.51]
31 New York Jets = 11.80 4 12 0 19.75( 24) 1 3 0 | 1 7 0 | 12.17 30 | 12.42 30 | 10.86 31 (afc east)
32 Arizona Cardinals = 9.36 3 13 0 20.83( 9) 0 7 0 | 0 8 0 | 9.37 32 | 9.30 32 | 9.36 32 (NFC WEST)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Divisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 (afc north) = 21.94 21.68 ( 1) 4 21.72 ( 1)
2 (afc south) = 21.70 21.41 ( 2) 4 21.45 ( 2)
3 (afc west) = 21.24 20.97 ( 3) 4 21.07 ( 3)
4 (NFC SOUTH) = 20.35 20.62 ( 4) 4 20.56 ( 4)
5 (NFC NORTH) = 20.29 20.58 ( 5) 4 20.54 ( 5)
6 (NFC EAST) = 19.32 19.31 ( 6) 4 19.31 ( 6)
7 (NFC WEST) = 19.04 18.75 ( 7) 4 18.86 ( 7)
8 (afc east) = 15.53 16.67 ( 8) 4 16.08 ( 8)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
6 (NFC EAST) = 19.32 19.31 ( 6) 4 19.31 ( 6)
5 (NFC NORTH) = 20.29 20.58 ( 5) 4 20.54 ( 5)
4 (NFC SOUTH) = 20.35 20.62 ( 4) 4 20.56 ( 4)
7 (NFC WEST) = 19.04 18.75 ( 7) 4 18.86 ( 7)
8 (afc east) = 15.53 16.67 ( 8) 4 16.08 ( 8)
1 (afc north) = 21.94 21.68 ( 1) 4 21.72 ( 1)
2 (afc south) = 21.70 21.41 ( 2) 4 21.45 ( 2)
3 (afc west) = 21.24 20.97 ( 3) 4 21.07 ( 3)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
6 (NFC EAST) = 19.32 19.31 ( 6) TEAMS= 4 19.31 ( 6)
Final NFL 2018 through games of 2019 February 3 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.33] [ 2.51] [ 2.51]
12 Philadelphia Eagles = 22.94 10 8 0 20.93( 8) 3 2 0 | 4 6 0 | 22.40 12 | 22.64 12 | 24.27 8 (NFC EAST)
13 Dallas Cowboys = 21.49 11 7 0 20.71( 10) 2 3 0 | 4 5 0 | 20.97 14 | 21.54 13 | 22.71 13 (NFC EAST)
22 New York Giants = 17.20 5 11 0 20.61( 12) 1 2 0 | 2 7 0 | 17.26 21 | 16.43 25 | 17.10 20 (NFC EAST)
26 Washington Redskins = 15.60 7 9 0 19.86( 22) 0 2 0 | 1 7 0 | 16.11 26 | 16.38 26 | 14.32 28 (NFC EAST)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
5 (NFC NORTH) = 20.29 20.58 ( 5) TEAMS= 4 20.54 ( 5)
Final NFL 2018 through games of 2019 February 3 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.33] [ 2.51] [ 2.51]
5 Chicago Bears = 25.63 12 5 0 18.23( 32) 2 1 0 | 4 2 0 | 25.13 7 | 25.90 6 | 27.00 2 (NFC NORTH)
14 Minnesota Vikings = 21.27 8 7 1 19.61( 26) 0 6 0 | 1 6 0 | 21.25 13 | 20.48 15 | 21.31 16 (NFC NORTH)
20 Detroit Lions = 18.12 6 10 0 19.56( 27) 1 4 0 | 1 7 0 | 17.00 23 | 16.89 21 | 20.39 18 (NFC NORTH)
21 Green Bay Packers = 17.31 6 9 1 19.11( 30) 1 4 0 | 1 5 1 | 18.61 20 | 17.09 20 | 13.43 29 (NFC NORTH)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
4 (NFC SOUTH) = 20.35 20.62 ( 4) TEAMS= 4 20.56 ( 4)
Final NFL 2018 through games of 2019 February 3 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.33] [ 2.51] [ 2.51]
4 New Orleans Saints = 26.18 14 4 0 20.50( 17) 3 1 0 | 7 2 0 | 28.03 3 | 27.99 2 | 23.65 10 (NFC SOUTH)
17 Carolina Panthers = 20.41 7 9 0 20.65( 11) 2 3 0 | 4 4 0 | 20.14 16 | 20.26 16 | 21.04 17 (NFC SOUTH)
18 Atlanta Falcons = 19.18 7 9 0 19.95( 21) 0 4 0 | 0 7 0 | 18.83 19 | 18.97 18 | 19.95 19 (NFC SOUTH)
23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 16.71 5 11 0 21.02( 5) 1 4 0 | 3 5 0 | 17.17 22 | 16.66 23 | 15.61 24 (NFC SOUTH)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
7 (NFC WEST) = 19.04 18.75 ( 7) TEAMS= 4 18.86 ( 7)
Final NFL 2018 through games of 2019 February 3 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.33] [ 2.51] [ 2.51]
3 Los Angeles Rams = 26.40 15 4 0 20.57( 14) 5 3 0 | 7 4 0 | 27.47 4 | 27.82 3 | 24.68 7 (NFC WEST)
10 Seattle Seahawks = 24.20 10 7 0 19.62( 25) 1 4 0 | 3 5 0 | 24.32 9 | 24.12 9 | 23.95 9 (NFC WEST)
27 San Francisco 49ers = 15.05 4 12 0 20.14( 20) 1 6 0 | 1 7 0 | 14.92 27 | 13.66 28 | 15.35 25 (NFC WEST)
32 Arizona Cardinals = 9.36 3 13 0 20.83( 9) 0 7 0 | 0 8 0 | 9.37 32 | 9.30 32 | 9.36 32 (NFC WEST)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
8 (afc east) = 15.53 16.67 ( 8) TEAMS= 4 16.08 ( 8)
Final NFL 2018 through games of 2019 February 3 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.33] [ 2.51] [ 2.51]
1 New England Patriots = 28.42 14 5 0 19.84( 23) 6 1 0 | 8 2 0 | 28.15 2 | 27.42 4 | 29.13 1 (afc east)
28 Buffalo Bills = 14.28 6 10 0 20.31( 18) 0 6 0 | 2 7 0 | 12.93 28 | 14.67 27 | 16.39 22 (afc east)
30 Miami Dolphins = 12.19 7 9 0 19.08( 31) 2 2 0 | 3 4 0 | 12.34 29 | 13.38 29 | 11.87 30 (afc east)
31 New York Jets = 11.80 4 12 0 19.75( 24) 1 3 0 | 1 7 0 | 12.17 30 | 12.42 30 | 10.86 31 (afc east)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1 (afc north) = 21.94 21.68 ( 1) TEAMS= 4 21.72 ( 1)
Final NFL 2018 through games of 2019 February 3 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.33] [ 2.51] [ 2.51]
7 Baltimore Ravens = 25.30 10 7 0 20.54( 16) 2 4 0 | 4 5 0 | 25.27 6 | 25.05 7 | 25.39 5 (afc north)
9 Pittsburgh Steelers = 24.28 9 6 1 20.98( 6) 2 4 0 | 3 4 1 | 24.78 8 | 24.67 8 | 23.30 11 (afc north)
16 Cleveland Browns = 20.64 7 8 1 20.95( 7) 1 5 1 | 1 6 1 | 19.84 17 | 19.77 17 | 22.52 14 (afc north)
25 Cincinnati Bengals = 16.51 6 10 0 21.71( 1) 2 6 0 | 2 8 0 | 16.87 24 | 16.85 22 | 15.67 23 (afc north)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2 (afc south) = 21.70 21.41 ( 2) TEAMS= 4 21.45 ( 2)
Final NFL 2018 through games of 2019 February 3 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.33] [ 2.51] [ 2.51]
8 Indianapolis Colts = 24.38 11 7 0 19.39( 28) 0 2 0 | 5 4 0 | 23.51 11 | 23.59 11 | 26.97 3 (afc south)
11 Houston Texans = 23.35 11 6 0 19.31( 29) 1 3 0 | 4 5 0 | 23.54 10 | 23.62 10 | 22.96 12 (afc south)
15 Tennessee Titans = 21.26 9 7 0 20.17( 19) 1 4 0 | 4 5 0 | 20.74 15 | 21.46 14 | 22.44 15 (afc south)
24 Jacksonville Jaguars = 16.63 5 11 0 21.16( 3) 2 3 0 | 2 9 0 | 16.56 25 | 16.57 24 | 16.80 21 (afc south)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
3 (afc west) = 21.24 20.97 ( 3) TEAMS= 4 21.07 ( 3)
Final NFL 2018 through games of 2019 February 3 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.33] [ 2.51] [ 2.51]
2 Kansas City Chiefs = 27.67 13 5 0 20.57( 13) 4 5 0 | 5 5 0 | 28.25 1 | 28.55 1 | 26.66 4 (afc west)
6 Los Angeles Chargers = 25.32 13 5 0 21.06( 4) 4 4 0 | 6 4 0 | 25.57 5 | 26.31 5 | 24.84 6 (afc west)
19 Denver Broncos = 18.25 6 10 0 20.55( 15) 3 5 0 | 3 7 0 | 19.40 18 | 18.05 19 | 15.28 26 (afc west)
29 Oakland Raidersxxx = 12.65 4 12 0 21.48( 2) 1 8 0 | 2 8 0 | 11.09 31 | 11.49 31 | 14.79 27 (afc west)
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endfile