All Contents Copyright © 2021 Jeff Sagarintm. All rights reserved.
Final 2021 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of 2021 DECEMBER 11 SATURDAY - MLS CUP CHAMPIONSHIP
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom)
(3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
(listed top-to-bottom within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
favored by 1.08 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5 and top 10 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
FINAL Major League Soccer 2021 through games of 2021 December 11 Saturday - MLS Cup Championship
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.46] [ 0.45] [ 0.46] [ 0.45]
1 New England Revolution = 2.66 22 6 7 2.01( 15) 5 3 2 | 10 3 2 | 2.67 1 | 2.71 1 | 2.60 2 EASTERN
2 New York City FC = 2.64 18 11 9 2.07( 3) 4 4 2 | 7 6 4 | 2.62 2 | 2.59 2 | 2.73 1 EASTERN
3 Nashville SC = 2.48 13 5 18 1.94( 25) 3 2 2 | 4 3 5 | 2.48 3 | 2.50 3 | 2.46 4 EASTERN
4 Colorado Rapids = 2.41 17 8 10 1.91( 27) 0 1 0 | 1 4 5 | 2.41 7 | 2.40 7 | 2.41 5 western
5 Philadelphia Union = 2.41 16 9 12 2.04( 10) 3 5 2 | 7 5 5 | 2.43 5 | 2.41 6 | 2.37 6 EASTERN
6 Seattle Sounders = 2.35 17 9 9 1.99( 21) 1 0 2 | 4 3 3 | 2.48 4 | 2.47 4 | 2.16 9 western
7 Sporting Kansas City = 2.31 18 11 7 1.93( 26) 1 0 2 | 4 2 3 | 2.43 6 | 2.41 5 | 2.14 12 western
8 Portland Timbers = 2.28 20 14 4 1.96( 24) 1 3 1 | 3 5 2 | 2.21 8 | 2.20 8 | 2.46 3 western
9 New York Red Bulls = 2.19 13 13 9 2.08( 2) 3 5 4 | 3 6 6 | 2.16 9 | 2.16 9 | 2.23 7 EASTERN
10 Atlanta United = 2.15 13 10 12 2.01( 16) 0 6 4 | 0 6 7 | 2.15 10 | 2.14 10 | 2.16 10 EASTERN
FINAL Major League Soccer 2021 through games of 2021 December 11 Saturday - MLS Cup Championship
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.46] [ 0.45] [ 0.46] [ 0.45]
11 Real Salt Lake = 2.09 16 15 6 2.04( 8) 2 1 1 | 7 6 1 | 2.04 15 | 2.07 11 | 2.15 11 western
12 Columbus Crew SC = 2.08 13 13 8 2.05( 7) 2 4 5 | 4 8 5 | 2.07 12 | 2.06 14 | 2.09 14 EASTERN
13 Los Angeles FC = 2.06 12 13 9 2.01( 12) 1 2 0 | 3 9 1 | 2.01 16 | 2.02 16 | 2.13 13 western
14 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 2.04 12 10 13 1.98( 22) 0 1 1 | 3 5 3 | 1.97 17 | 1.98 17 | 2.18 8 western
15 D.C. United = 2.04 14 15 5 2.05( 6) 2 8 1 | 4 10 2 | 2.08 11 | 2.06 12 | 1.97 17 EASTERN
16 Orlando City SC = 2.03 13 10 12 2.00( 19) 1 4 5 | 2 7 7 | 2.04 14 | 2.06 13 | 2.00 16 EASTERN
17 Minnesota United FC = 2.00 13 12 10 2.01( 14) 1 3 0 | 5 7 1 | 1.96 18 | 1.97 18 | 2.08 15 western
18 CF Montreal = 1.98 12 12 10 1.97( 23) 1 4 4 | 3 6 5 | 2.05 13 | 2.03 15 | 1.86 19 EASTERN
19 LA Galaxy = 1.92 13 12 9 2.00( 20) 0 1 1 | 3 6 2 | 1.91 19 | 1.93 19 | 1.90 18 western
20 San Jose Earthquakes = 1.78 10 13 11 2.00( 18) 0 1 1 | 1 6 3 | 1.73 20 | 1.75 20 | 1.85 20 western
FINAL Major League Soccer 2021 through games of 2021 December 11 Saturday - MLS Cup Championship
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.46] [ 0.45] [ 0.46] [ 0.45]
21 FC Dallas = 1.67 7 15 12 2.03( 11) 1 2 2 | 3 6 3 | 1.69 21 | 1.68 21 | 1.62 23 western
22 Inter Miami CF = 1.63 12 17 5 2.01( 13) 3 4 2 | 3 9 3 | 1.60 22 | 1.61 22 | 1.68 22 EASTERN
23 Chicago Fire FC = 1.63 9 18 7 2.12( 1) 1 4 6 | 4 7 6 | 1.59 23 | 1.59 23 | 1.70 21 EASTERN
24 Houston Dynamo FC = 1.45 6 16 12 2.00( 17) 0 3 0 | 2 8 1 | 1.50 24 | 1.47 24 | 1.35 25 western
25 Austin FC = 1.43 9 21 4 2.04( 9) 1 3 0 | 4 6 2 | 1.38 25 | 1.40 25 | 1.49 24 western
26 Toronto FC = 1.31 6 18 10 2.06( 4) 2 3 5 | 2 6 7 | 1.32 26 | 1.30 26 | 1.31 26 EASTERN
27 FC Cincinnati = 0.98 4 22 8 2.05( 5) 0 9 1 | 0 12 3 | 1.00 27 | 1.01 27 | 0.92 27 EASTERN
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Divisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 EASTERN = 2.05 2.02 ( 1) 14 2.02 ( 1)
2 western = 2.01 1.98 ( 2) 13 1.99 ( 2)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 EASTERN = 2.05 2.02 ( 1) 14 2.02 ( 1)
2 western = 2.01 1.98 ( 2) 13 1.99 ( 2)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1 EASTERN = 2.05 2.02 ( 1) TEAMS= 14 2.02 ( 1)
FINAL Major League Soccer 2021 through games of 2021 December 11 Saturday - MLS Cup Championship
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.46] [ 0.45] [ 0.46] [ 0.45]
1 New England Revolution = 2.66 22 6 7 2.01( 15) 5 3 2 | 10 3 2 | 2.67 1 | 2.71 1 | 2.60 2 EASTERN
2 New York City FC = 2.64 18 11 9 2.07( 3) 4 4 2 | 7 6 4 | 2.62 2 | 2.59 2 | 2.73 1 EASTERN
3 Nashville SC = 2.48 13 5 18 1.94( 25) 3 2 2 | 4 3 5 | 2.48 3 | 2.50 3 | 2.46 4 EASTERN
5 Philadelphia Union = 2.41 16 9 12 2.04( 10) 3 5 2 | 7 5 5 | 2.43 5 | 2.41 6 | 2.37 6 EASTERN
9 New York Red Bulls = 2.19 13 13 9 2.08( 2) 3 5 4 | 3 6 6 | 2.16 9 | 2.16 9 | 2.23 7 EASTERN
10 Atlanta United = 2.15 13 10 12 2.01( 16) 0 6 4 | 0 6 7 | 2.15 10 | 2.14 10 | 2.16 10 EASTERN
12 Columbus Crew SC = 2.08 13 13 8 2.05( 7) 2 4 5 | 4 8 5 | 2.07 12 | 2.06 14 | 2.09 14 EASTERN
15 D.C. United = 2.04 14 15 5 2.05( 6) 2 8 1 | 4 10 2 | 2.08 11 | 2.06 12 | 1.97 17 EASTERN
16 Orlando City SC = 2.03 13 10 12 2.00( 19) 1 4 5 | 2 7 7 | 2.04 14 | 2.06 13 | 2.00 16 EASTERN
18 CF Montreal = 1.98 12 12 10 1.97( 23) 1 4 4 | 3 6 5 | 2.05 13 | 2.03 15 | 1.86 19 EASTERN
22 Inter Miami CF = 1.63 12 17 5 2.01( 13) 3 4 2 | 3 9 3 | 1.60 22 | 1.61 22 | 1.68 22 EASTERN
23 Chicago Fire FC = 1.63 9 18 7 2.12( 1) 1 4 6 | 4 7 6 | 1.59 23 | 1.59 23 | 1.70 21 EASTERN
26 Toronto FC = 1.31 6 18 10 2.06( 4) 2 3 5 | 2 6 7 | 1.32 26 | 1.30 26 | 1.31 26 EASTERN
27 FC Cincinnati = 0.98 4 22 8 2.05( 5) 0 9 1 | 0 12 3 | 1.00 27 | 1.01 27 | 0.92 27 EASTERN
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2 western = 2.01 1.98 ( 2) TEAMS= 13 1.99 ( 2)
FINAL Major League Soccer 2021 through games of 2021 December 11 Saturday - MLS Cup Championship
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.46] [ 0.45] [ 0.46] [ 0.45]
4 Colorado Rapids = 2.41 17 8 10 1.91( 27) 0 1 0 | 1 4 5 | 2.41 7 | 2.40 7 | 2.41 5 western
6 Seattle Sounders = 2.35 17 9 9 1.99( 21) 1 0 2 | 4 3 3 | 2.48 4 | 2.47 4 | 2.16 9 western
7 Sporting Kansas City = 2.31 18 11 7 1.93( 26) 1 0 2 | 4 2 3 | 2.43 6 | 2.41 5 | 2.14 12 western
8 Portland Timbers = 2.28 20 14 4 1.96( 24) 1 3 1 | 3 5 2 | 2.21 8 | 2.20 8 | 2.46 3 western
11 Real Salt Lake = 2.09 16 15 6 2.04( 8) 2 1 1 | 7 6 1 | 2.04 15 | 2.07 11 | 2.15 11 western
13 Los Angeles FC = 2.06 12 13 9 2.01( 12) 1 2 0 | 3 9 1 | 2.01 16 | 2.02 16 | 2.13 13 western
14 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 2.04 12 10 13 1.98( 22) 0 1 1 | 3 5 3 | 1.97 17 | 1.98 17 | 2.18 8 western
17 Minnesota United FC = 2.00 13 12 10 2.01( 14) 1 3 0 | 5 7 1 | 1.96 18 | 1.97 18 | 2.08 15 western
19 LA Galaxy = 1.92 13 12 9 2.00( 20) 0 1 1 | 3 6 2 | 1.91 19 | 1.93 19 | 1.90 18 western
20 San Jose Earthquakes = 1.78 10 13 11 2.00( 18) 0 1 1 | 1 6 3 | 1.73 20 | 1.75 20 | 1.85 20 western
21 FC Dallas = 1.67 7 15 12 2.03( 11) 1 2 2 | 3 6 3 | 1.69 21 | 1.68 21 | 1.62 23 western
24 Houston Dynamo FC = 1.45 6 16 12 2.00( 17) 0 3 0 | 2 8 1 | 1.50 24 | 1.47 24 | 1.35 25 western
25 Austin FC = 1.43 9 21 4 2.04( 9) 1 3 0 | 4 6 2 | 1.38 25 | 1.40 25 | 1.49 24 western
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
These are the "regular method". _
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _
both teams in lower case _
means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _
MONEY=odds to 100 _
FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL probdraw _
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EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence
EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG
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