Final Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor (Limited/TV Movie) — Jon Hamm and Andrew Scott are Frontrunners; Could Austin Butler Surprise for ‘Masters of the Air?’
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Weekly Commentary (Updated: July 11, 2024): Jon Hamm (“Fargo”) and Andrew Scott (“Ripley”) seem to be the frontrunners in the race, with Richard Gadd (“Baby Reindeer”) offering the potential to spoil. However, who joins them remains to be seen, as Matt Bomer could be a packaged deal with his “Fellow Travelers” supporting frontrunner Jonathan Bailey. Still, David Oyelowo, Tom Hollander, Jeff Daniels and Ewan McGregor have ardent fans who could push anyone out. Even Austin Butler, who had “The Bikeriders” open in theaters during Emmy voting, could get a boost for “Masters of the Air.”
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Big names like Andrew Scott (“Ripley”), Jon Hamm (“Fargo”) and Jeff Daniels (“A Man in Full”) are among the 70 names in the race, paired with those from TV movies such as Tony Shalhoub (“Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie”) and Nicholas Galitzine with two bids for “Red, White and Royal Blue” and the limited series “Mary & George.” The past two years saw 97 and 64. Unfortunately, this has made the race even more competitive because only five actors will make the lineup.
While Scott and Hamm sit comfortably at the top of the list, Matt Bomer (“Fellow Travelers”) and Richard Gadd (“Baby Reindeer”) are sure to make some headway, with the possibility of either Jeff Daniels (“A Man in Full”) and David Oyelowo (“Lawmen: Bass Reeves”) slipping through.
It’s hard to imagine there won’t be at least one jaw-dropper from any of the Primetime lineups (does anyone remember “Emily in Paris” making it in the comedy series race in 2021?). Even though “The Idol” and the performance of Abel Tesfaye, a.k.a. The Weeknd, was panned by critics and audiences, you can never count out strange tastes from voters of the Actors Peer Group. What if…?
Nominations-round voting is open from June 13 and closes on June 24 at 10:00 p.m. PT. Voting for peer group-specific top ten round panels (if applicable) takes place between June 28 and July 8. The Emmy nominations will be announced on July 17. The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will occur over two nights on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
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Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer and Series 1 Andrew Scott — “Ripley” (Netflix) 2 Jon Hamm — “Fargo” 3 Richard Gadd — “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix) 4 Matt Bomer — “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime) 5 David Oyelowo — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+) Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Image Credit: PARI DUKOVIC Next in Line
Rank Series 6 Tom Hollander — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX) 7 Austin Butler — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+) 8 Tony Shalhoub — “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock) 9 Jeff Daniels — “A Man in Full” (Netflix) 10 Ewan McGregor — “A Gentleman in Moscow” (Paramount+) Outstanding Lead Actor in Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Image Credit: "Monsieur Spade" (Courtesy of Black Bear Pictures) Also In Contention
Rank Series 11 Hoa Xuande — “The Sympathizer” (Max) 12 Michael Douglas — “Franklin” (Apple TV+) 13 Benedict Cumberbatch — “Eric” (Netflix) 14 Leo Woodall — “One Day” (Netflix) 15 Nicholas Galitzine — “Mary & George” (Starz) 16 Nicholas Galitzine — “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video) 17 Taylor Zakhar Perez — “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video) 18 Kiefer Sutherland — “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+) 19 Clive Owen — “Monsuer Spade” (AMC) 20 Bill Pullman — “Murdaugh Murders: The Movie” (Lifetime) Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Eligible Performers (Lead Actor, Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: HBO **Officially submitted and on the Emmy nominations ballot.
- Danny Arroyo — “Day Labor”
- Matt Bomer — “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
- Anthony Boyle — “Manhunt” (Apple TV+)
- Luis Brandoni — “Nada”
- Matthew Broderick — “Painkiller” (Netflix)
- Austin Butler — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
- Mookie Cook — “Shooting Stars” (Peacock)
- Brian Cox — “Little Wing”
- Benedict Cumberbatch — “Eric” (Netflix)
- Matt Czuchry — “American Horror Story: Delicate” (FX)
- Da’Vinchi — “Mary J. Blige’s Real Love” (Lifetime)
- Jeff Daniels — “A Man in Full” (Netflix)
- Snoop Dogg — “The UnderDoggs” (Prime Video)
- Michael Douglas — “Franklin” (Apple TV+)
- Zac Efron — “Ricky Stanicky” (Prime Video)
- Paapa Essiedu — “Genie” (Peacock)
- Patrick M.J. Finerty — “Christmas With the Foxes”
- Ben Foster — “Finestkind” (Paramount+)
- Richard Gadd — “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
- Nicholas Galitzine — “Mary & George” (Starz)
- Nicholas Galitzine — “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video)
- Domhnall Gleeson — “Alice & Jack (Masterpiece)” (PBS)
- Bruce Greenwood — “The Fall of the House of Usher” (Netflix)
- Mark Hamill — “The Fall of the House of Usher” (Netflix)
- Jon Hamm — “Fargo” (FX)
- Kelvin Harrison Jr. — “Genius: MLK/X” (National Geographic)
- Jonah Hauer-King — “The Tattooist of Auschwitz” (Peacock)
- Brian Tyree Henry — “Class of ’09” (FX)
- Martin Merlihy — “Please Don’t Destroy: The Treasure of Foggy Mountain” (Peacock)
- John Higgins — “Please Don’t Destroy: The Treasure of Foggy Mountain” (Peacock)
- Nico Hiraga — “Love in Taipei”
- Louis Hofmann — “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix)
- Tom Holland — “The Crowded Room” (Apple TV+)
- Tom Hollander — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
- Jake Johnson — “Self Reliance”
- Aubrey Joseph — “Bosco”
- Logan Lerman — “We Were the Lucky Ones” (Hulu)
- Carl Lumbly — “The Fall of the House of Usher” (Netflix)
- Rudy Mancuso — “Música” (Prime Video)
- Ben Marshall — “Please Don’t Destroy: The Treasure of Foggy Mountain” (Peacock)
- Ewan McGregor — “A Gentleman in Moscow” (Paramount+)
- Caleb McLaughlin — “Shooting Stars” (Peacock)
- Tobias Menzies — “Manhunt” (Apple TV+)
- Kel Mitchell — “Good Burger 2”
- Sam Neill — “Apples Never Fall” (Peacock)
- Leslie Odom Jr — “Purple Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch (Great Performances)” (PBS)
- Clive Owen — “Monsieur Spade” (AMC)
- David Oyelowo — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+)
- Aaron Paul — “Black Mirror” (Netflix)
- Taylor Zakhar Perez — “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video)
- Aaron Pierre — “Genius: MLK/X” (National Geographic)
- Orlando Pineda — “Griselda” (Netflix)
- Bill Pullman — “Murdaugh Murders: The Movie” (Lifetime)
- Edgar Ramirez — “Dr. Death” (Peacock)
- Archie Renaux — “Upgraded” (Prime Video)
- Matthias Schoenaerts — “The Regime” (Max)
- Andrew Scott — “Ripley” (Netflix)
- Jerry Seinfeld — “Unfrosted” (Netflix)
- Tony Shalhoub — “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock)
- Kiefer Sutherland — “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+)
- Abel Tesfaye — “The Idol” (Max)
- Kenan Thompson — “Good Burger 2” (Paramount+)
- Callum Turner — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
- Courtney B. Vance — “Heist 88”
- Toby Wallace — “Finestkind” (Paramount+)
- Jackson White — “Pet Semetary: Bloodlines”
- Leo Woodall — “One Day” (Netflix)
- Colin Woodell — “The Continental: From the World of John Wick” (Peacock)
- Harrison Xu — “Last Summer of Nathan Lee”
- Hoa Xuande — “The Sympathizer” (Max)
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More Information (Lead Actor, Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Hopper Stone/SMPSP 2023 category winner: Steven Yeun as Danny Cho — “Beef” (Netflix)
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Prediction Categories
2024 Primetime Emmy Prediction Categories About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.