Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.
Welcome to THE COLLECTIVE, all the latest predictions for the upcoming Academy Awards in one place. See the top 10 best picture awards contenders, with the top 5 prospects in all categories. Check back on Thursdays for the latest updates.
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2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
ALL CATEGORIES
UPDATED: Apr. 22, 2021
AWARDS COMMENTARY: “Nomadland” has staked its claim as the official frontrunner for the Academy Awards. Competing alongside it for best picture are “The Father,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Mank,” “Minari,” “Promising Young Woman,” “Sound of Metal” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”
Netflix’s “Mank” scored a leading 10 nominations, including nods for best director (David Fincher), best actor (Gary Oldman) and best supporting actress (Amanda Seyfried). Following behind with six nominations apiece are “The Father,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Minari,” “Nomadland,” “Sound of Metal” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” Emerald Fennell’s “Promising Young Woman” received five nods.
Two women were nominated for best director for the first time ever with Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”) and Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”). They will compete against Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”), David Fincher (“Mank”) and Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”).
PRECURSORS LEADER: “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2020-2021)
2021 Awards Season Calendar
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Best Motion Picture
“The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Philippe Carcassonne, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt
“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.)
Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King
“Mank” (Netflix)
Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski
“Minari” (A24)
Christina Oh
“Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Chloé Zhao
“Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)
Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Ashley Fox
“Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
Stuart M. Besser and Marc PlattCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung
“Minari” (A24)
Emerald Fennell
“Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)
David Fincher
“Mank” (Netflix)
Thomas Vinterberg
“Another Round” (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Chloé Zhao
“Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)Check out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Actor
Riz Ahmed
“Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
Chadwick Boseman
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
Anthony Hopkins
“The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Gary Oldman
“Mank” (Netflix)
Steven Yeun
“Minari” (A24)Check out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Actress
Viola Davis
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
Andra Day
“The United States vs. Billie Holiday” (Hulu)
Vanessa Kirby
“Pieces of a Woman” (Netflix)
Frances McDormand
“Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Carey Mulligan
“Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)Check out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
Daniel Kaluuya
“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.)
Leslie Odom, Jr.
“One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
Paul Raci
“Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
Lakeith Stanfield
“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros)Check out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (Amazon Studios)
Glenn Close
“Hillbilly Elegy” (Netflix)
Olivia Colman
“The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Amanda Seyfried
“Mank” (Netflix)
Yuh-Jung Youn
“Minari” (A24)Check out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Original Screenplay
“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros)
Shaka King, Will Berson, Keith Lucas, Kenneth Lucas
“Minari” (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung
“Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell
“Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
Darius Marder, Abraham Marder, Derek Cianfrance
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
Aaron SorkinCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Adapted Screenplay
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan” (Amazon Studios)
Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Nina Pedrad, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Swimer
“The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
“Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao
“One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers
“The White Tiger” (Netflix)
Ramin BahraniCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Animated Feature
“Onward” (Pixar)
Kori Rae
“Over the Moon” (Netflix)
Glen Keane, Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim
“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon” (Netflix)
Will Becher, Richard Phelan
“Soul” (Pixar)
Pete Docter, Dana Murray
“Wolfwalkers” (Apple TV Plus/GKIDS)
Stéphan Roelants, Tomm Moore, Paul Young, Nora TwomeyCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Production Design
“The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Peter Francis, Cathy Featherstone
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
Mark Ricker, Karen O’Hara
“Mank” (Netflix)
Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale
“News of the World” (Universal Pictures)
David Crank, Elizabeth Keenan
“Tenet” (Warner Bros)
Nathan Crowley, Kathy LucasCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Cinematography
“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros)
Sean Bobbitt
“Mank” (Netflix)
Erik Messerschmidt
“News of the World” (Universal Pictures)
Dariusz Wolski
“Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Joshua James Richards
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
Phedon PapamichaelCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Costume Design
“Emma.” (Focus Features)
Alexandra Byrne
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
Ann Roth
“Mank” (Netflix)
Trish Summerville
“Mulan” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Bina Daigeler
“Pinocchio” (Roadside Attractions)
Massimo Cantini ParriniCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Film Editing
“The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Yorgos Lamprinos
“Minari” (A24)
Harry Yoon
“Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao
“Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
Alan BaumgartenCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Emma.” (Focus Features)
Marese Langan
“Hillbilly Elegy” (Netflix)
Eryn Krueger Mekash, Patricia Dehaney, Matthew Mungle
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
Mia Neal, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Jamika Wilson
“Mank” (Netflix)
Kimberley Spiteri, Gigi Williams
“Pinocchio” (Roadside Attractions)
Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, Francesco PegorettiCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Sound
“Greyhound” (Apple TV Plus)
Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
“Mank” (Netflix)
Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
“News of the World” (Universal Pictures)
Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett
“Soul” (Pixar)
Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker
“Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip BladhCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Visual Effects
“Love and Monsters” (Paramount Pictures)
Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
“The Midnight Sky” (Netflix)
Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins
“Mulan” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram
“The One and Only Ivan” (Disney Plus)
Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
“Tenet” (Warner Bros.)
Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott FisherCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Best Original Score
“Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
Terence Blanchard
“Mank” (Netflix)
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
“Minari” (A24)
Emile Mosseri
“News of the World” (Universal Pictures)
James Newton Howard
“Soul” (Pixar)
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon BatisteCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Original Song
“Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga” (Netflix) – “Húsavík”
Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros) – “Fight for You”
Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
“The Life Ahead” (Netflix) – “Io Si (Seen)”
Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
“One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios) – “Speak Now”
Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) – “Hear My Voice”
Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste WaiteCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Documentary Feature
“Collective” (Magnolia Pictures)
Amanda McBaine, Jesse Moss
“Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution” (Netflix)
Nicole Newnham, James Lebrecht, Sara Bolder Hittman
“The Mole Agent” (Gravitas Ventures)
Marcela Santibañez, Maite Alberdi
“My Octopus Teacher” (Netflix)
Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed
“Time” (Amazon Studios)
Lauren Domino, Kellen Quinn, Garrett BradleyCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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International Feature
“Another Round”
“Druk” (Denmark)
“Better Days”
“少年的你” (Hong Kong)
“Collective”
“Colectiv” (Romania)
“The Man Who Sold His Skin”
“L’Homme qui a vendu sa peau” (Tunisia)
“Quo Vadis, Aida?”
“Quo Vadis, Aida?” (Bosnia and Herzegovina)Check out the full category rankings here>>>
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Animated Short
“Burrow” (Disney Plus)
Mike Capbarat, Madeline Sharafian
“Genius Loci” (Kazak Productions)
Adrien Mérigeau, Amaury Ovise
“If Anything Happens I Love You” (Netflix)
Michael Govier, Will McCormack
“Opera” (Beasts and Natives Alike)
Erick Oh
“Yes-People (CAOZ hf. Hólamói)
Arnar Gunnarsson, Gísli Darri HalldórssonCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Documentary Short
“Colette” (Time Travel Unlimited)
Anthony Giacchino
“A Concerto Is a Conversation” (Breakwater Studios)
Kris Bowers, Ben Proudfoot
“Do Not Split” (Field of Vision)
Anders Hammer
“Hunger Ward” (MTV Documentary Films)
Michael Scheuerman, Skye Fitzgerald
“A Love Song for Latasha” (Beasts and Natives Alike)
Sophia Nahli AllisonCheck out the full category rankings here>>>
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Live Action Short
“Feeling Through” (Doug Roland Films)
Doug Roland
“The Letter Room” (Salaud Morisset, Topic)
Elvira Lind
“The Present” (Philistine Films)
Ossama Bawardi, Farah Nabulsi
“Two Distant Strangers” (Dirty Robber, NowThis)
Travon Free, Martin Desmond Roe
“White Eye” (EROIN CORP)
Tomer ShushanCheck out the full category rankings here>>>