Final Emmy Predictions: Drama Series – ‘Shogun’ Expected to Dominate; Could ‘Ahsoka’ Surprise?
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated July 9, 2024): With “Shōgun,” not only is FX expected to get its fourth drama series nominated in the top category — after “Damages” (2008-09), “The Americans” (2016, 2018) and “Pose” (2019, 2021) — but it’s expected to dominate and be among the top three nominated programs.
The question is, what other shows will join the lineup? Disney’s “Ahsoka,” which received decent reviews from critics, could get a bump from the Television Academy’s artisan peer groups and be a surprise inclusion at the expense of something such as Prime Video’s “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” or Showtime’s “The Curse.”
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For the drama Emmy, awarded to the final season of HBO’s “Succession,” only one of its nominated counterparts from the lineup — Netflix’s “The Crown” — returned within the eligibility window. The final season of the royal monarchy series will face an avalanche of freshman shows, including FX’s Japanese epic “Shōgun,” Prime Video’s action-filled video game adaptation “Fallout,” and Showtime’s dark dramedy “The Curse.” There are 107 entries in the mix, compared to 163 last year, 171 in 2022 and 133 in 2021.
With fewer submissions, the loudest shows could rise to the top of the pack, or there could be some surprising snubs. Which ones will make the cut?
Nominations-round voting is open from June 13 and closes on June 24 at 10:00 p.m. PT. Voting for peer group-specific top ten round panels (if applicable) takes place between June 28 and July 8. The Emmy nominations will be announced on July 17. The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will occur over two nights on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
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Image Credit: David Lee/Prime Video -
Next in Line
Rank Series 9 “The Curse” (Showtime) 10 “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+) 11 “Loki” (Disney+) 12 “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max) 13 “Tokyo Vice” (Max) 14 “Elsbeth” (CBS) 15 “Star Trek: Strange New Worlds” (Paramount+) Outstanding Drama Series -
Image Credit: Apple TV+ Also In Contention
Rank Series 16 “Avatar: The Last Airbender” (Netflix) 17 “The Green Veil” (The Network) 18 “Justified: City Primeval” (FX) 19 “Law & Order: SVU” (NBC) 20 “Sugar” (Apple TV+) 21 “The Walking Dead: The Ones Who Live” (AMC) 22 “The New Look” (Apple TV+) 23 “For All Mankind” (Apple TV+) 24 “Mayans M.C.” (FX) 25 “Average Joe” (BET+) Outstanding Drama Series -
Eligible Titles (Drama Series)
Image Credit: Richard Foreman Jr./A24/Paramount+ with SHOWTIME **Officially submitted and on the Emmy nominations ballot.
- “Ahsoka” (Disney+)
- “Alert: Missing Persons Unit” (Fox)
- “Alex Rider” (Freevee)
- “All American” (The CW)
- “All Rise
- “Almost Paradise” (Freevee)
- “American Rust Broken Justice” (Prime Video)
- “Avatar: The Last Airbender” (Netflix)
- “Average Joe” (BET+)
- “The Baxters”
- “Billions” Showtime)
- “Black Cake” (Hulu)
- “Blue Bloods” (CBS)
- “BMF” (Starz)
- “Bosch: Legacy” (Freevee)
- “The Buccaneers” (Apple TV+)
- “The Changeling” (Apple TV+)
- “The Chi” (Showtime)
- “Chicago Fire” (NBC)
- “Chicago Med” (NBC)
- “Chicago P.D.” (NBC)
- “Chucky” (Syfy)
- “The Cleaning Lady” (Fox)
- “The Crown” (Netflix)
- “Cruel Summer”
- “CSI: Vegas” (CBS)
- “The Curse” (Showtime)
- “Dark Winds” (AMC)
- “Dead Boy Detectives” (Netflix)
- “Death and Other Details” (Hulu)
- “Elsbeth” (CBS)
- “The Equalizer” (CBS)
- “Fallout” (Prime Video)
- “FBI” (CBS)
- “FBI: International” (CBS)
- “FBI: Most Wanted” (CBS)
- “Fire Country” (CBS)
- “For All Mankind” (Apple TV+)
- “Found” (NBC)
- “Foundation” (Apple TV+)
- “The Gilded Age” (Max)
- “The Girls on the Bus” (Max)
- “The Good Doctor” (ABC)
- “Good Trouble” (Freeform)
- “The Green Veil” (The Network)
- “Grey’s Anatomy” (ABC)
- “Halo” (Paramount+)
- “Harlan Coben’s Shelter” (Prime Video)
- “Hightown” (Starz)
- “Hijack” (Apple TV+)
- “Invasion” (Apple TV+)
- “The Irrational” (NBC)
- “Joe Pickett” (Paramount+)
- “Justified: City Primeval” (FX)
- “La Brea”
- “Law & Order” (NBC)
- “Law & Order: Organized Crime” (NBC)
- “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” (NBC)
- “The Lincoln Lawyer” (Netflix)
- “Loki” (Disney+)
- “Manifest”
- “Mayans M.C.” (FX)
- “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters” (Apple TV+)
- “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
- “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
- “NCIS” (CBS)
- “NCIS: Hawai’i” (CBS)
- “NCIS: Sydney” (CBS)
- “The New Look” (Apple TV+)
- “9-1-1” (ABC)
- “Outer Range” (Prime Video)
- “Outlander” (Starz)
- “Parish” (AMC)
- “Power Book III: Raising Kanan” (Starz)
- “Power Book IV: Force” (Starz)
- “Quantum Leap” (NBC)
- “Reacher” (Prime Video)
- “The Rookie” (ABC)
- “S.W.A.T.” (CBS)
- “Sexy Beast” (Paramount+)
- “Shōgun” (FX)
- “Silo” (Apple TV+)
- “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
- “Special Ops: Lioness” (Paramount+)
- “Star Trek: Discovery” (Paramount+)
- “Star Trek: Strange New Worlds” (Paramount+)
- “Station 19” (ABC)
- “Sugar” (Apple TV+)
- “Sullivan’s Crossing” (The CW)
- “The Summer I Turned Pretty” (Prime Video)
- “Swagger” (Apple TV+)
- “3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
- “Tokyo Vice” (Max)
- “Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan” (Prime Video)
- “The Tourist” (Max)
- “Tracker” (CBS)
- “Walker” (The CW)
- “The Walking Dead: Daryl Dixon” (AMC)
- “The Walking Dead: Dead City” (AMC)
- “The Walking Dead: The Ones Who Live” (AMC)
- “Warrior” (Max)
- “The Way Home” (Hallmark)
- “The Wheel of Time” (Prime Video)
- “Will Trent” (ABC)
- “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
- “The Witcher” (Netflix)
- “The Woman in the Wall” (Showtime)
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More Information (Drama)
Image Credit: Apple TV+ 2023 category winner: “Succession” (HBO) — Season 4 — Jesse Armstrong, Adam McKay, Will Ferrell, Frank Rich, Kevin Messick, Mark Mylod, Jane Tranter, Tony Roche, Scott Ferguson, Jon Brown, Lucy Prebble and Will Tracy, executive producers; Dara Schnapper, Georgia Pritchett and Ted Cohen, co-executive producers; Susan Soon He Stanton, supervising producer; Gabrielle Mahon, produced by; Francesca Gardiner, consulting producer
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Prediction Categories
2024 Primetime Emmy Prediction Categories About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.