Final Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor (Comedy)—Will Steve Martin Return to the Lineup for ‘Only Murders in the Building?’
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated: July 11, 2024): There’s a top seven in the race, with four of the slots seemingly assured for Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”), Larry David (“Curb Your Enthusiasm”) and Steve Martin and Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”). When it comes to Martin, he’s fresh off a surprising snub last year, and voters may be anxious to get him back in the lineup.
The last slot seems open to a TV veteran such as Kelsey Grammer (“Frasier”), recent Emmy nominee Theo James (“The Gentlemen”), or previous winner Jharrel Jerome (“I’m a Virgo”). We’ll see which way the wind blows on this one.
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This year’s lead comedy actor category features 55 contenders, a decrease from 68 and 84 in the past two years. Among the notable pairs are Steve Martin and Martin Short from “Only Murders in the Building” and Matt Berry and Kayvan Novak from “What We Do in the Shadows.” Martin will look to undo his surprising snub from last year, while Berry and Novak hope to get first noms for the show’s penultimate season.
The race also includes last year’s winner, Jeremy Allen White from “The Bear,” and former Emmy staple Kelsey Grammer from “Frasier,” who has recently dominated headlines. Despite the competitive field, and paired with lead comedy actress category with 58 contenders, that will produce five nominees in both races.
Theo James, who earned his first nom last year for his role in Mike White’s HBO/Max drama series “The White Lotus,” could extend his success into comedy with his charming performance in Guy Ritchie’s gangster dramedy “The Gentlemen.”
Playing a fictionalized version of himself, Larry David is vying for the lead comedy actor category again for the final season of “Curb Your Enthusiasm.” Despite being a two-time Emmy winner for writing and creating “Seinfeld,” David has yet to win as an actor despite six nominations, the last of which came in 2008.
One can wonder if any of the actors from FX’s “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” will ever receive recognition. Charlie Day, Danny DeVito, Glenn Howerton, and Rob McElhenney are all up for consideration.
Nominations-round voting is open from June 13 and closes on June 24 at 10:00 p.m. PT. Voting for peer group-specific top ten round panels (if applicable) takes place between June 28 and July 8. The Emmy nominations will be announced on July 17. The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will occur over two nights on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
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Image Credit: Christopher Rafael/Netflix And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Series 1 Jeremy Allen White — “The Bear” (FX) 2 Martin Short — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) 3 Steve Martin — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) 4 Larry David — “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max) 5 Theo James — “The Gentlemen” (Netflix) Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series -
Image Credit: Courtesy of Prime Video Next in Line
Rank Series 6 Jharrel Jerome — “I’m a Virgo” (Prime Video) 7 Kelsey Grammer — “Frasier” (Paramount+) 8 Kayvan Novak — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX) 9 D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai — “Reservation Dogs” (FX) 10 Danny DeVito — “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” (FX) Outstanding Lead Actor in Comedy Series -
Image Credit: Bettina Strauss Also In Contention
Rank Series 11 Patrick Brammall — “Colin From Accounts” (Paramount+) 12 Utkarsh Ambudkar — “Ghosts” (CBS) 13 Matt Berry — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX) 14 Seth Rogen — “Platonic” (Apple TV+) 15 Chris Messina — “Based on a True Story” (Peacock) 16 Charlie Day — “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” (FX) 17 Glenn Howerton — “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” (FX) 18 Rob McElhenney — “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” (FX) 19 George Lopez — “Lopez vs. Lopez” (NBC) 20 Joel McHale — “Animal Control” (Fox) Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series -
Eligible Performances (Lead Comedy Actor)
Image Credit: HBO **Officially submitted and on the Emmy nominations ballot.
- Utkarsh Ambudkar — “Ghosts” (CBS)
- Robbie Amell — “Upload” (Prime Video)
- Iain Armitage — “Young Sheldon” (CBS)
- Enrique Arrizon — “Acapulco” (Apple TV+)
- Matt Berry — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
- Patrick Brammall — “Colin From Accounts” (Paramount+)
- Max Burkholder — “Ted” (Peacock)
- J. Bernard Calloway — “The Ms. Pat Show” (BET+)
- Justin Chien — “The Brothers Sun” (Netflix)
- Jon Cryer — “Extended Family” (NBC)
- Rhys Darby — “Our Flag Means Death” (Max)
- Larry David — “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
- Charlie Day — “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” (FX)
- Danny DeVito — “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” (FX)
- Mike Epps — “The Upshaws” (Netflix)
- Chris Estrada — “This Fool” (Hulu)
- Will Forte — “Bodkin” (Netflix)
- Josh Gad — “Wolf Like Me”
- Billy Gardell — “Bob Hearts Abishola” (CBS)
- Steve Gerben — “Tires” (Netflix)
- Shane Gillis — “Tires” (Netflix)
- John Goodman — “The Righteous Gemstones” (Max)
- John Goodman — “The Conners” (ABC)
- Kelsey Grammer — “Frasier” (Paramount+)
- Dulé Hill — “The Wonder Years” (ABC)
- Glenn Howerton — “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” (FX)
- Mark Indelicato — “With Love” (Prime Video)
- Theo James — “The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
- Jharrel Jerome — “I’m a Virgo” (Prime Video)
- George Lopez — “Lopez vs. Lopez” (NBC)
- Anthony Mackie — “Twisted Metal” (Peacock)
- Sebastian Maniscalco — “Bookie” (Max)
- Steve Martin — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
- Danny McBride — “The Righteous Gemstones” (Max)
- Rob McElhenney — “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” (FX)
- Joel McHale — “Animal Control” (Fox)
- Stephen Merchant — “The Outlaws” (Prime Video)
- Chris Messina — “Based on a True Story” (Peacock)
- Louis Mustillo — “Cooper’s Bar” (AMC)
- Kayvan Novak — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
- Chris O’Dowd — “The Big Door Prize” (Apple TV+)
- Adam Pally — “Knuckles” (Paramount+)
- Sam Richardson — “The Afterparty” (Apple TV+)
- Craig Robinson — “Killing It” (Peacock)
- Seth Rogen — “Platonic” (Apple TV+)
- Adjani Salmon — “Dreaming Whilst Black” (Paramount+)
- Marcus Scribner — “Grown-ish” (Freeform)
- Michael Sheen — “Good Omens” (Prime Video)
- Martin Short — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
- Sam Song Li — “The Brothers Sun” (Netflix)
- David Tennant — “Good Omens” (Prime Video)
- Alan Tudyk — “Resident Alien” (Syfy)
- Taika Waititi — “Our Flag Means Death” (Max)
- Jeremy Allen White — “The Bear” (FX)
- D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai — “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
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More Information (Lead Comedy Actor)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Prime Video 2023 category winner: Jeremy Allen White as Carmen “Carmy” Berzatto — “The Bear” (FX) — Season 1
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Prediction Categories
2024 Primetime Emmy Prediction Categories About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.