Final Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor (Drama) – Will Walton Goggins Land His Second Bid for ‘Fallout?’
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated: July 9, 2024): There seems to be a solid top five, with Hiroyuki Sanada, Cosmo Jarvis, Walton Goggins, Gary Oldman, and Dominic West occupying the top. This bodes well for Goggins, who hasn’t been nominated in 13 years since his inaugural bid as Boyd Crowder in FX’s “Justified.” This could bring him his overdue second nom.
The last slot appears to be open for any number of potential spoilers, such as Colin Farrell (“Sugar”), Tom Hiddleston (“Loki”), and Donald Glover (“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”)
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Thanks to the lead drama actor’s 81 submissions, which barely cleared the required threshold, we will have six nominees in the category (and for lead drama actress).
Among the contenders this year are the two “Shōgun” leading men, Cosmo Jarvis and Hiroyuki Sanada, with Tom Hiddleston from Disney’s “Loki” and Donald Glover from “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.” Even a few longshots are throwing their hats in the ring, like John Leguizamo from The Network’s “The Green Veil,” after writing an open letter to Emmy voters via a full-page ad in the New York Times last weekend (also helps the show was just renewed).
The show’s first season, set in the 1950s, has Leguizamo playing a brutal FBI agent “tasked with an unraveling secret mission that threatens to expose deeper secrets.” It’s one of the finest performances of his career yet.
Jarvis and Sanada are poised for lead drama actor nominations, injecting fresh energy into a category that was begging for excitement, with pundits divided between Gary Oldman (“Slow Horses”) and Dominic West (“The Crown”), both of whom have never received nods for their roles. Sanada could make history, becoming the second Asian actor nominated after Lee Jung-Jae, who won for “Squid Game” in 2022.
Nominations-round voting is open from June 13 and closes on June 24 at 10:00 p.m. PT. Voting for peer group-specific top ten round panels (if applicable) takes place between June 28 and July 8. The Emmy nominations will be announced on July 17. The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will occur over two nights on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
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Image Credit: Netflix And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Series 1 Hiroyuki Sanada — “Shōgun” (FX) 2 Cosmo Jarvis — “Shōgun” (FX) 3 Gary Oldman — “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+) 4 Dominic West — “The Crown” (Netflix) 5 Walton Goggins — “Fallout” (Prime Video) 6 Morgan Spector — “The Gilded Age” (Max) Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series -
Image Credit: HBO Next in Line
Rank Series 7 Colin Farrell — “Sugar” (Apple TV+) 8 Donald Glover — “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video) 9 Tom Hiddleston — “Loki” (Disney+) 10 John C. Reilly — “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max) Outstanding Lead Actor in Drama Series -
Image Credit: Alyssa Moran/AMC Also In Contention
Rank Series 11 John Leguizamo — “The Green Veil” (The Network) 12 Nathan Felder — “The Curse” (Showtime) 13 Ken Watanabe — “Tokyo Vice” (Max) 14 Ben Mendelsohn — “The New Look” (Apple TV+) 15 Paul Giamatti — “Billions” (Showtime) 16 Idris Elba — “Hijack” (Apple TV+) 17 Andrew Lincoln — “The Walking Dead: The Ones Who Live” (AMC) 18 Timothy Olyphant — “Justified: City Primeval” (FX) 19 Corey Stoll — “Billions” (Showtime) 20 Giancarlo Esposito — “Parish” (AMC) Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series -
Eligible Performers (Lead Drama Actor)
Image Credit: HBO **Officially submitted and on the Emmy nominations ballot.
- David Ajala — “Star Trek: Discovery” (Paramount+)
- Björgvin Arnarson — “Chucky” (Syfy)
- Zackary Arthur — “Chucky” (Syfy)
- Jason Beghe — “Chicago P.D.” (NBC)
- Adrien Brody — “Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
- Josh Brolin — “Outer Range” (Prime Video)
- Santiago Cabrera — “The Cleaning Lady” (Fox)
- Deon Cole — “Average Joe” (BET+)
- Gordon Cormier — “Avatar: The Last Airbender” (Netflix)
- MeKai Curtis — “Power Book III: Raising Kenan” (Starz)
- James Badge Dale — “Hightown”
- Josh Dallas — “Manifest”
- Hugh Dancy — “Law & Order” (NBC)
- Michael Dorman — “Joe Pickett”
- Jamie Dornan — “The Tourist” (Max)
- Idris Elba — “Hijack” (Apple TV+)
- Ansel Elgort — “Tokyo Vice” (Max)
- Giancarlo Esposito — “Parish” (AMC)
- Colin Farrell — “Sugar” (Apple TV+)
- Nathan Felder — “The Curse” (Showtime)
- Nathan Fillion — “The Rookie” (ABC)
- Demetrius Flenory Jr. — “BMF”
- Manuel Garcia-Rulfo — “The Lincoln Lawyer” (Netflix)
- Paul Giamatti — “Billions” Showtime)
- Donald Glover — “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
- Walton Goggins — “Fallout” (Prime Video)
- Daniel Henney — “The Wheel of Time” (Prime Video)
- Jay Hernandez — “Magnum P.I.”
- Sam Heughan — “Outlander” (Starz)
- Tom Hiddleston — “Loki” (Disney+)
- Freddie Highmore — “The Good Doctor” (ABC)
- Isaiah Hill — “Swagger” (Apple TV+)
- Quincy Isaiah — “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
- O’Shea Jackson Jr. — “Swagger” (Apple TV+)
- Cosmo Jarvis — “Shōgun” (FX)
- Joel Kinnaman — “For All Mankind” (Apple TV+)
- Taylor Kinney — “Chicago Fire” (NBC)
- Luke Kleintank — “FBI: International” (NBC)
- Andrew Koji — “Warrior” (Max)
- John Krasinski — “Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan” (Prime Video)
- Peter Krause — “9-1-1” (ABC)
- Raymond Lee — “Quantum Leap” (NBC)
- John Leguizamo — “The Green Veil” (The Network)
- Damian Lewis — “Billions” (Showtime)
- Andrew Lincoln — “The Walking Dead: The Ones Who Live” (AMC)
- Eoin Macken — “La Brea” (NBC)
- Jesse L. Martin — “The Irrational” (NBC)
- James McArdle — “Sexy Beast”
- Zahn McClarnon — “Dark Winds” (AMC)
- Dylan McDermott — “FBI: Most Wanted”
- Ted McGinley — “The Baxters”
- Christopher Meloni — “Law & Order: Organized Crime”
- Ben Mendelsohn — “The New Look” (Apple TV+)
- Shemar Moore — “S.W.A.T.”
- Jeffrey Dean Morgan — “The Walking Dead: Dead City” (AMC)
- Anson Mount — “Star Trek: Strange New Worlds” (Paramount+)
- Chad Michael Murray — “Sullivan’s Crossing” (The CW)
- Gary Oldman — “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
- Babs Olusanmokun — “Star Trek: Strange New Worlds” (Paramount+)
- Timothy Olyphant — “Justified: City Primeval” (FX)
- Lee Pace — “Foundation” (Paramount+)
- Mandy Patinkin — “Death and Other Details” (Hulu)
- Scott Patterson — “Sullivan’s Crossing” (The CW)
- Norman Reedus — “The Walking Dead: Daryl Dixon” (AMC)
- John C. Reilly — “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
- George Rexstrew — “Dead Boy Detectives” (Netflix)
- Alan Ritchson — “Reacher” (Prime Video)
- Ramón Rodríguez — “Will Trent” (ABC)
- Kurt Russell — “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters” (Apple TV+)
- Hiroyuki Sanada — “Shōgun” (FX)
- Pablo Schreiber — “Halo” (Paramount+)
- Tom Selleck — “Blue Bloods” (CBS)
- Joseph Sikora — “Power Book IV: Force” (Starz)
- Morgan Spector — “The Gilded Age” (Max)
- Lakeith Stanfield — “The Changeling” (Apple TV+)
- Corey Stoll — “Billions” (Showtime)
- Wilmer Valderrama — “NCIS” (CBS)
- Ken Watanabe — “Tokyo Vice” (Max)
- Titus Welliver — “Bosch: Legacy” (Freevee)
- Dominic West — “The Crown” (Netflix)
- Zeeko Zaki — “FBI” (NBC)
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More Information (Lead Drama Actor)
Image Credit: Netflix 2023 category winner: Kieran Culkin as Roman Roy — “Succession” (HBO) — Season 4
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Prediction Categories
2024 Primetime Emmy Prediction Categories About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.