Final Emmy Predictions: Lead Actress (Comedy) — Could Three Black Women Make History Once Again?
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated: July 11, 2024): The lead comedy actress race at the Emmys has 58 contenders this year, down from 76 last year and 91 in 2022. Among them is last year’s winner, Quinta Brunson from “Abbott Elementary,” who will face off against previous winner Jean Smart from “Hacks.” The category will deliver five nominees apiece.
Brunson, star and creator of “Abbott,” has made history at the Primetime Emmys. In the show’s first season, she became the first Black woman nominated for comedy series, writing, and acting in the same year and the second Black woman to win the writing award. Despite not being nominated for writing in the second season, she won the acting award, becoming the second Black woman to do so after Isabel Sanford for “The Jeffersons.” This third season is her best yet as the charismatic teacher Janine Teagues. Can she win again this year?
Edebiri of “The Bear” won the supporting comedy actress award last year for her role as chef Sydney Adamu. This year, she shifted to the lead category for the show’s second season, which has already been celebrated with Golden Globe and SAG awards.
If Brunson or Edebiri wins, they would be the second Black woman to win an Emmy for the same character twice. Uzo Aduba won two Emmys for her role as “Crazy Eyes” on “Orange is the New Black,” but in different categories—guest comedy actress in 2014 and supporting drama actress in 2015. While Edebiri would follow a similar path, Brunson would be the first to win in the same category twice. Regina King won two Emmys for “American Crime” in 2015 and 2016, but for different characters.
If Brunson and Edebiri are recognized alongside Emmy darling Maya Rudolph (“Loot”), it will mark the most Black women nominated for lead comedy actress in the same year. Other notable contenders include Jaz Sinclair (“Gen V”), Renée Elise Goldsberry (“Girls5eva”), Diarra Kilpatrick (“Diarra from Detroit”) and Fọláḱẹ Olówófôyekù (the final season of “Bob Hearts Abishola”).
Nominations-round voting is open from June 13 to June 24. Voting for peer group-specific top ten round panels (if applicable) takes place between June 28 and July 8. The Emmy nominations will be announced on July 17. The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will be held on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
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Image Credit: Apple TV+ And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer and Series 1 Jean Smart — “Hacks” (Max) 2 Ayo Edebiri — “The Bear” (FX) 3 Quinta Brunson — “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) 4 Maya Rudolph — “Loot” (Apple TV+) 5 Kristen Wiig — “Palm Royale” (Apple TV+) Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series -
Image Credit: Hulu Next in Line
Rank Performer and Series 6 Selena Gomez — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) 7 Patricia Arquette — “High Desert” (Apple TV+) 8 Devery Jacobs — “Reservation Dogs” (FX) 9 Natasia Demetriou — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX) 10 Patricia “Ms. Pat” Williams — “The Ms. Pat Show” (BET+) 11 Jaz Sinclair — “Gen V” (Prime Video) 12 Kaley Cuoco — “Based on a True Story” (Peacock) 13 Diarra Kilpatrick — “Diarra from Detroit” (BET+) 14 Renée Elise Goldsberry — “Girls5eva” (Netflix) 15 Sarah Lancashire — “Julia” (Max) Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series -
Image Credit: Lisa Tomasetti/Paramount+ Also in Contention
Rank Performer and Series 16 Harriet Dyer — “Colin From Accounts” (Paramount+) 17 Rose Byrne — “Platonic” (Apple TV+) 18 Courteney Cox — “Shining Vale” (Starz) 19 Michelle Yeoh — “The Brothers Sun” (Netflix) 20 Kaitlin Olson — “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” (FX) 21 Sara Bareilles — “Girls5eva” (Netflix) 22 Amy Schumer — “Life and Beth” (Hulu) 23 Rose McIver — “Ghosts” (CBS) 24 Sarah Jessica Parker — “And Just Like That” (Max) 25 Fọláḱẹ Olówófôyekù — “Bob Hearts Abishola” (CBS) Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series -
Eligible Performances (Lead Comedy Actress)
Image Credit: Kyle Terboss/BET+ **Officially submitted and on the Emmy nominations ballot.
- Andy Allo — “Upload” (Prime Video)
- Andrea Anders — “Bookie” (Max)
- Patricia Arquette — “High Desert” (Apple TV+)
- Sara Bareilles — “Girls5eva” (Netflix)
- Stephanie Beatriz — “Twisted Metal” (Peacock)
- Beth Behrs — “The Neighborhood” (CBS)
- Quinta Brunson — “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
- Rose Byrne — “Physical” (Apple TV+)
- Rose Byrne — “Platonic” (Apple TV+)
- Journey Christine — “The Upshaws” (Netflix)
- Miranda Cosgrove — “iCarly” (Paramount+)
- Courteney Cox — “Shining Vale” (Starz)
- Siobhán Cullen — “Bodkin” (Netflix)
- Kaley Cuoco — “Based on a True Story” (Peacock)
- Natasia Demetriou — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
- Gabrielle Dennis — “The Big Door Prize” (Apple TV+)
- Harriet Dyer — “Colin From Accounts” (Paramount+)
- Ayo Edebiri — “The Bear” (FX)
- Kim Fields — “The Upshaws” (Netflix)
- Isla Fisher — “Wolf Like Me”
- Sara Gilbert — “The Conners” (ABC)
- Renée Elise Goldsberry — “Girls5eva” (Netflix)
- Selena Gomez — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
- Tiffany Haddish — “The Afterparty” (Apple TV+)
- Marcia Gay Harden — “So Help Me Todd” (CBS)
- Louisa Harland — “Renegade Nell” (Disney+)
- Devery Jacobs — “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
- KaMillion — “Rap Shit” (Max)
- Diarra Kilpatrick — “Diarra from Detroit” (BET+)
- Kila Kitu — “Cooper’s Bar” (AMC)
- Sarah Lancashire — “Julia” (Max)
- Mayan Lopez — “Lopez vs. Lopez” (NBC)
- Justina Machado — “The Horror of Dolores Roach” (Prime Video)
- Rose Iver — “Ghosts” (CBS)
- Kaitlin Olson — “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” (FX)
- Fọláḱẹ Olówófôyekù — “Bob Hearts Abishola” (CBS)
- Aida Osman — “Rap Shit” (Max)
- Claudia O’Doherty — “Killing It” (Peacock)
- Sarah Jessica Parker — “And Just Like That” (Max)
- Edi Patterson — “The Righteous Gemstones” (Max)
- Nasim Pedrad — “Chad” (TBS)
- Camila Perez — “Acapulco” (Apple TV+)
- Maitreyi Ramakrishnan — “Never Have I Ever” (Netflix)
- Melissa Rauch — “Night Court” (NBC)
- Miranda Richardson — “Good Omens” (Prime Video)
- Gina Rodriguez — “Not Dead Yet” (ABC)
- Maya Rudolph — “Loot” (Apple TV+)
- Amy Schumer — “Life and Beth” (Hulu)
- Rhea Seehorn — “Cooper’s Bar” (AMC)
- Saycon Sengbloh — “The Wonder Years” (ABC)
- Jaz Sinclair — “Gen V” (Prime Video)
- Jean Smart — “Hacks” (Max)
- Sara Tomko — “Resident Alien” (Syfy)
- Emeraude Toubia — “With Love” (Prime Video)
- Anjana Vasan — “We Are Lady Parts” (Peacock)
- Kristen Wiig — “Palm Royale” (Apple TV+)
- Patricia “Ms. Pat” Williams — “The Ms. Pat Show” (BET+)
- Michelle Yeoh — “The Brothers Sun” (Netflix)
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More Information (Lead Comedy Actress)
Image Credit: HULU 2023 category winner: Quinta Brunson as Janine Teagues — “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — Season 2
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Prediction Categories
2024 Primetime Emmy Prediction Categories About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship, and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.