Oscar Predictions: Best Actor — Joaquin Phoenix, Colman Domingo and Denzel Washington Among A-Listers Destined for Awards Season
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Weekly Commentary (Updated July 27, 2024): It’s only summertime, and I’m already excited by the prospects of the upcoming awards season.
A week ago, I thought the best actress race was the most competitive, with the lead actor category lagging. But dig a little deeper, and you’ll find that’s far from the truth.
The first trailer for Ridley Scott’s hotly anticipated “Gladiator II” dropped, sending casual pundits and cinephiles excited about what Paul Mescal, Denzel Washington and Pedro Pascal might deliver in their respective roles. Rumors are swirling that the two-time Oscar-winning Washington (“Glory” and “Training Day”) offers one of the strongest performances of his career. There’s even talk that his campaign might mirror the iconic runs of Daniel Day-Lewis in “Gangs of New York” or Meryl Streep in “The Devil Wears Prada,” potentially positioning him for a lead acting nomination instead of the presumed supporting run as we may have assumed. Could there be room for Washington and former nominee Mescal (“Aftersun”)? We’ll see if that possibility comes to fruition. Notably, the mere speculation alone is thrilling, especially considering “The Piano Lesson,” which he produced, stars his son John David Washington. Could we be looking at the first father-son duo nominated in acting categories? The mere thought is exhilarating.
But there’s a long road ahead.
Ralph Fiennes, who hasn’t been nominated since “The English Patient” (1997), is said to be remarkable in Edward Berger’s thriller “Conclave” from Focus Features. And let’s not forget Joaquin Phoenix. Coming five years off his win for portraying Arthur Fleck, a.k.a. “Joker,” in the 2019 awards juggernaut, Phoenix is rumored to be “even better” in Warner Bros’ “Joker: Folie à Deux,” where he stars alongside Lady Gaga. During awards season, the studio will undoubtedly push this film with all its might.
Then there’s Greg Kwedar’s powerful “Sing Sing” from A24, finally opening in theaters. This film is bound to thrust its star, Colman Domingo, back into the best actor conversation after he scored his first career nomination last year for “Rustin.”
Two-time nominee Andrew Garfield is set to steal hearts in John Crowley’s romantic drama “We Live in Time.” At the same time, Jesse Plemons is poised to gain momentum after his phenomenal work in Yorgos Lanthimos’ anthology dramedy, “Kinds of Kindness,” which won at Cannes.
Young actors like Elliott Heffernan from Steve McQueen’s World War II epic “Blitz” and Ethan Herisse from RaMell Ross’ adaptation of the best-selling novel “Nickel Boys” could also be in the running.
And let’s not overlook the potential game-changers from acquisition titles. Hot items like “Queer” with Daniel Craig, “The Apprentice” with Sebastian Stan, and “Eden” with Jude Law are still up for grabs, adding even more unpredictability.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the performer could be campaigned in lead or supporting, and/or the film could open in 2025.
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Image Credit: Courtesy of A24 And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer & Film 1 Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) 2 Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 3 Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) 4 Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24) 5 Joaquin Phoenix — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Paramount Next in Line
Rank Performer & Film 6 John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 7 Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) 8 Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) 9 Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24) 10 Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man” (A24) Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute Other Contenders
Rank Performer & Film 11 Daniel Craig — “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution) 12 Michael Keaton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) 13 Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 14 Michael Shannon — “The End” (Neon) 15 Jude Law — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment) 16 Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) 17 Jesse Eisenberg — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) 18 Tom Hanks — “Here” (Sony Pictures) 19 Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 20 Ethan Herisse — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Bryan Schutmaat/Focus Features Also In Contention
Rank Performer & Film 21 Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution) 22 Jharrel Jerome — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM) 23 Sean Penn — “Daddio” (Sony Pictures Classics) 24 André Holland — “The Actor” (Neon) 25 René Pérez — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films) 26 Missagh Zareh — “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) 27 Austin Butler — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) 28 Kingsley Ben-Adir — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) 29 Cillian Murphy — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate) 30 Glen Powell — “Hit Man” (Netflix) Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Eligible Performers (Best Actor)
Image Credit: A24 This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
** denotes could open in 2025 or compete in another category.
- André Holland — “The Actor” (Neon)
- Sebastian Stan — “The Apprentice” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Michael Keaton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) **
- Robbie Williams — “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
- Austin Butler — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)
- Barry Keoghan — “Bird” (Mubi) **
- Franz Rogowski — “Bird” (Mubi) **
- Channing Tatum — “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)
- Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) **
- Kingsley Ben-Adir — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
- Lakieth Stanfield — “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
- Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Mike Faist — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) **
- Josh O’Connor — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) **
- Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) **
- Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- Hugh Jackman — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Ryan Reynolds — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man” (A24)
- Izaac Wang — “Dìdi” (Focus Features)
- Timothée Chalamet — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Jude Law — “Eden” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Michael Shannon — “The End” (Neon)
- Hitoshi Omika — “Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow)
- Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) **
- Tom Hanks — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- Hugh Grant — “Heretic” (A24)
- Glen Powell — “Hit Man” (Netflix)
- Kevin Costner — “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.)
- Justice Smith — “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24)
- Nicholas Galitzine — “The Idea of You” (Amazon Studios)
- René Pérez — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)
- Joaquin Phoenix — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) **
- Adam Driver — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- Ethan Herisse — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- Brandon Wilson — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) **
- Nicholas Hoult — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Richard Gere — “Oh, Canada” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Anthony Hopkins — “One Life” (Bleecker Street)
- Jude Law — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)
- Gary Oldman — “Parthenope” (A24)
- John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- Joaquin Phoenix — “Polaris” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Daniel Craig — “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Jesse Eisenberg — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Kauchani Bratt — “Rez Ball” (Netflix)
- Gabriel LaBell — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Missagh Zareh — “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
- Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24)
- Cillian Murphy — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
- Jim Carrey — “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)
- Glen Powell — “Twisters” (Universal Pictures)
- Jharrel Jerome — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)
- Tom Hardy — “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony Pictures)
- Blake Cameron Jones — “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Gian Knight Ramirez — “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24)
- Demián Bichir — “Without Blood” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Daniel Zovatto — “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix)
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More Information (Oscars: Best Actor)
Image Credit: Variety via Getty Images 2024 category winner: Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
— — Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) 2024 Oscars Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.