Final Emmy Predictions: TV Movie – Will Jerry Seinfeld’s ‘Unfrosted’ and Hulu’s ‘No One Will Save You’ Overcome Bad Reviews and Genre Bias?
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Television Movie
Weekly Commentary (Updated: July 9, 2024): Don’t weigh critics’ reviews when predicting this race; they don’t really matter. The past two years have shown that voters don’t worry about genre bias or whether a movie is beloved.
I feel good about the top three—Netflix’s “Scoop,” Prime Video’s “Red, White and Royal Blue,” and Hulu’s “Quiz Lady”—having their titles called out on nomination morning. However, there’s always room for a surprise or two.
I’m going out on a limb and predicting Jerry Seinfeld’s directorial debut, “Unfrosted,” from Netflix to make the cut, alongside Brian Duffield’s horror flick “No One Will Save You” from Hulu. The latter could mimic its predecessor “Prey,” which was nominated here last year. That could push out something like HBO/Max’s late-dropper “The Great Lillian Hall” or Paramount’s “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial.”
____
The race for outstanding television movie has 42 films in the running, such as Netflix’s “Unfrosted: The Pop Tart Story” from debut director Jerry Seinfeld, Prime Video’s “Red, White and Royal Blue” from respected Broadway stage helmer Matthew López, and Hulu’s “Quiz Lady” from Oscar-winning short filmmaker Jessica Yu. The number of movies submitted decreased from 61, 48 and 41 in the past three years.
Also in the mix is Lifetime’s “Mary J. Blige’s Real Love,” a film inspired by the Grammy winner’s music, which could surprise.
Nominations-round voting is open from June 13 and closes on June 24 at 10:00 p.m. PT. Voting for peer group-specific top ten round panels (if applicable) takes place between June 28 and July 8. The Emmy nominations will be announced on July 17. The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will take place over two nights on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
-
Image Credit: Sam Lothridge And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Series 1 “Scoop” (Netflix) 2 “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video) 3 “Quiz Lady” (Hulu) 4 “Unfrosted: The Pop-Tart Story” (Netflix) 5 “No One Will Save You” (Hulu) Outstanding Television Movie -
Image Credit: Venice Film Festival Next in Line
Rank Series 6 “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+) 7 “The Great Lillian Hall” (Max) 8 “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock) 9 “Turtles All the Way Down” (Max) 10 “Mary J. Blige’s Real Love” (Lifetime) Outstanding Television Movie -
Image Credit: Courtesy of Prime Video Also In Contention
Rank Series 11 “Música” (Prime Video) 12 “Finestkind” (Paramount+) 13 “Ricky Stanicky” (Prime Video) 14 “Role Play” (Prime Video) 15 “Vacation Friends 2” (Hulu) 16 “Totally Killer” (Prime Video) 17 “First Time Female Director” (The Roku Channel) 18 “Heist 88” (Showtime) 19 “Upgraded” (Prime Video) 20 “Bosco” (Peacock) Outstanding Television Movie -
Eligible Titles (Television Movie)
Image Credit: ©Paramount+/Courtesy Everett Collection **Officially submitted and on the Emmy nominations ballot.
- “A Biltmore Christmas”
- “An American in Austen”
- “Bosco” (Peacock)
- “Country Hearts”
- “Dashing Through the Snow” (Disney+)
- “EXMas” (Freevee)
- “Finestkind” (Paramount+)
- “First Time Female Director” (The Roku Channel)
- “Genie” (Peacock)
- “Good Burger 2” (Paramount+)
- “Heist 88” (Showtime)
- “Kemba”
- “Ladies of the ’80s: A Divas Christmas”
- “Last Summer of Nathan Lee”
- “Little Wing” (Paramount+)
- “Love in Taipei” (Paramount+)
- “Mary J. Blige’s Real Love”
- “Megamind vs. the Doom Syndicate” (Peacock)
- “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock)
- “Música” (Prime Video)
- “My Christmas Hero”
- “No One Will Save You” (Hulu)
- “Pet Semetary: Bloodlines” (Paramount+)
- “Please Don’t Destroy: The Treasure of Foggy Mountain” (Peacock)
- “Prom Dates”
- “Puppy Love” (Freevee)
- “Quiz Lady” (Hulu)
- “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video)
- “Ricky Stanicky” (Prime Video)
- “Role Play” (Prime Video)
- “Scoop” (Netflix)
- “Self Reliance” (Hulu)
- “Shooting Stars” (Peacock)
- “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+)
- “The Great Lillian Hall” (Max)
- “The UnderDoggs” (Prime Video)
- “Totally Killer” (Prime Video)
- “Turtles All the Way Down”
- “Unfrosted: The Pop-Tart Story” (Netflix)
- “Upgraded” (Prime Video)
- “Vacation Friends 2” (Hulu)
- “Whatever It Takes”
- “Zoey 102” (Paramount+)
-
More Information (Television Movie)
Image Credit: Steve Wilkie/PEACOCK 2023 category winner: “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel) — Henry R. Muñoz III, Neil Shah and Zachary Halley, executive producers; Mike Farah, Joe Farrell, Whitney Hodack, Tim Headington, Lia Buman, Max Silva, Al Yankovic and Eric Appel, produced by
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Prediction Categories
2024 Primetime Emmy Prediction Categories About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.