Multiverses, flying jets and a film that speaks to the horrors of our political reality make up only some of the movies from the first half of 2022. As we approach the midway point, the return to movie theaters has become a hopeful development for the biggest blockbusters. At the same time, studios are already strategizing their plans for the fall festival circuit.
Handicapping the coming movie awards season is an annual tradition at Variety. While there have been clear festival standouts (i.e., Ruben Östlund’s Palme d’Or-winning “Triangle of Sadness”), this list doesn’t include films that have yet to open for the public, nor films like Marvel’s “Thor: Love and Thunder” which had its premiere but doesn’t open until July 8.
You will find an eclectic mix of genres and mediums, which could whet the appetites of the Oscar voters, including the 397 new members that have been invited to join. Features to choose from include big blockbuster spectacles (“Top Gun: Maverick”), martial arts flicks (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), sci-fi allegories (“Crimes of the Future”), meta comedies (“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”), timely movies on abortion (“Happening”), transformative biopics (“Elvis”), animated gems (“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”) and small independent movies hoping to stay in the conversation (“Montana Story”).
There are categories already brimming with talent that could offer bridges to mainstream audiences and voters, such as Netflix’s “Hustle” with Adam Sandler (still looking for his first nom after “Uncut Gems”) or films that will be attractive to artisan branches such as Universal’s “Jurassic World: Dominion” and Sony Pictures’ “Uncharted.”
Box office has often been used as a talking point throughout the season, but unfortunately, that won’t help films like “Scream” or “The Lost City” with voters. However, it could perhaps offer a road into one of the races for films like “Jackass Forever” and “The Bad Guys.”
Sometimes reviews and critics’ scores don’t matter, which is why we shouldn’t count out entries like “Morbius,” “Death on the Nile” or “Ambulance.”
To offer an opportunity to name as many films as possible, a movie is only mentioned once as a top highlight, even though it could be competing in several categories.
The first prediction chart for best picture can be found here and updates of the top contenders on the Oscars Collective are here.
Read the list of the contenders, one from each of the 19 feature Oscar categories, below:
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Best Picture: 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' (A24)
Also in the discussion: “Elvis” (Warner Bros), “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
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Director: Audrey Diwan ('Happening')
Academy voters often select films that reflect the time in which we’re living. So with the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court, Audrey Diwan’s harrowing and brutal depiction of a college student living in France in 1963, battling the difficult choice to end an unwanted pregnancy, is as timely as it is moving. Already dabbling on the European awards circuit last year, nabbing a well-deserved BAFTA nom for best director, perhaps the film could replicate an awards trajectory similar to Fernando Meirelles’ “City of God” (2003).
Also in the discussion: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24), Joseph Kosinski, “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
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Best Actor: Austin Butler ('Elvis')
Baz Luhrmann’s Warner Bros. biopic has garnered diverse reactions from critics and audiences, but Austin Butler’s embodiment of the famed rock and roll musician has been the common denominator. It’s arguably the best performance given by any actor from the first half of the year, and the Academy has been known to welcome a newcomer to the party in the leading category (Timothee Chalamet in “Call Me by Your Name”). If the momentum continues into the season, he could manage to pull the film with him for the ride, similar to “Bohemian Rhapsody” and Oscar-winner Rami Malek.
Also in the discussion: Mark Rylance, “The Phantom of the Open” (Sony Pictures Classics), Adam Sandler, “Hustle” (Netflix)
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Best Actress: Haley Lu Richardson ('Montana Story')
Also in the discussion: Penélope Cruz, “Official Competition” (IFC Films), Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
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Supporting Actor: Pedro Pascal ('The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent')
The action-comedy from Tom Gormican continues the renaissance of actor Nicolas Cage playing a fictionalized version of himself, with standout Pedro Pascal stealing the show as Javi, the billionaire super fan. The Chilean actor has been rising over the past years, especially with his role in Disney+’s “The Mandalorian,” for which he was close to nabbing an Emmy nom. While the film underperformed at the box office, a few regional critics’ prizes seem in his future and he could be a worthy consideration.
Also in the discussion: Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), Juancho Hernangómez, “Hustle” (Netflix)
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Supporting Actress: Léa Seydoux ('Crimes of the Future')
After debuting at the Cannes Film Festival, David Cronenberg’s newest body horror allegory generated plenty of conversation. Still, it may be too “out there” for Academy voters. Nonetheless, there are strong performances among the cast, most notably Léa Seydoux as the emotionally and sexually complex Caprice, Saul Tenser’s (Viggo Mortensen) artistic partner. The French star has shown the depth of her talents over the past decade with critically acclaimed turns in “Blue is the Warmest Color” (2013) and, most recently, “The French Dispatch” (2021). In addition, distributor Neon has become exceptionally good at highlighting exceptional performances from auteur filmmakers (i.e., Kristen Stewart in “Spencer”). Perhaps they can do it once again.
Also in the discussion: Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), Dakota Johnson (“Cha Cha Real Smooth”)
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Original Screenplay: 'Cha Cha Real Smooth' (Apple Original Films)
After premiering at the Sundance Film Festival, writer, director and star Cooper Raiff’s dramedy about a party starter was acquired by Apple Original Films, which is fresh off its first best picture win for “CODA.” The movie has captured the hearts of critics and audiences, featuring a touching story that establishes Raiff as one of our most exciting filmmakers. With a standout turn from Dakota Johnson, who’s hot on the heels following “The Lost Daughter,” a robust awards campaign could get this film in front of voters.
Also in the discussion: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24), “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent” (Lionsgate)
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Adapted Screenplay: 'Marcel the Shell with Shoes On' (A24)
Very few movies bring as much joy, especially in this dark political time, as Dean Fleischer-Camp, Jenny Slate and Elisabeth Holm’s whimsical and inventive expansion of their short films that were huge on YouTube. Slate voices the anthropomorphic shell who lives with his grandmother Connie (voiced impeccably by Isabella Rossellini). The Academy has historically had a poor track record of embracing the animation medium outside its own category. The coming-of-age mockumentary’s story becomes a moving allegory on fame, mental health and life, while never once hitting the viewer on the head. Beginning its journey at the 2021 Telluride Film Festival, the A24 flick is worthy of the big-league awards attention (and yes, the Oscars should still vote for it for best animated feature).
Also in the discussion: “The Phantom of the Open” (Sony Pictures Classics), “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
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Animated Feature: 'Lightyear' (Pixar)
Pixar’s spinoff may not have lived up to the “Toy Story” universe of quality, but the charm of Chris Evans voicing our favorite Space Ranger Buzz Lightyear is well worth an entry on the list. With the terrific new additions such as Keke Palmer as Izzy Hawthorne, Taika Waititi as Mo Morrison, and Peter Sohn as the infectious robot cat SOX, the film directed by Angus MacLane stands out as one of the highlights of the first six months.
Also in the discussion: “Apollo 10 ½: A Space Age Childhood” (Netflix) and “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24)
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Production Design: 'Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore' (Warner Bros)
The box office may not have lit up with the third installment of this spin-off series from the world of “Harry Potter.” However, three-time Oscar-winning production designer Stuart Craig (“Gandhi,” “Dangerous Liaisons” and “The English Patient”), along with Oscar-winning set decorator Anna Pinnock (“The Grand Budapest Hotel”) is sure to capture the eyes of branch members (if enough remember it).
Also in the discussion: “Crimes of the Future” (Neon), “Death on the Nile” (20th Century Studios)
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Cinematography: 'The Northman' (Focus Features)
Robert Eggers’ epic Viking drama boasts an all-star cast (Alexander Skarsgård, Nicole Kidman, Anya Taylor-Joy) with impeccable crafts from its artisans team, notably sound, score and cinematography by Jarin Blaschke. Reunited again with Eggers following “The Witch” (2015) and his Oscar-nominated work in “The Lighthouse” (2019), the California-born DP frames an action thrill-ride that brings the unconventional story to life, and keeps the viewer thoroughly engaged.
Also in the discussion: “The Batman” (Warner Bros), “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
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Costume Design: 'Death on the Nile' (20th Century Studios)
Spanish costume designer Paco Delgado has assembled an exceptional resume that includes fantasy (“A Wrinkle in Time”), contemporary (“Glass”) and his two Oscar-nominated period films “Les Misérables” (2012) and “The Danish Girl” (2015). With a one-two punch, this year he has both “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent,” and Kenneth Branagh’s “Death on the Nile,” the second installment of his Detective Hercule Poirot film series. The early release date may be hard to overcome, but it could, at minimum, bring him to the conversation for a Costume Designers Guild mention.
Also in the discussion: “Elvis” (Warner Bros), “The Northman” (Focus Features)
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Film Editing: 'Top Gun: Maverick' (Paramount Pictures)
There’s plenty of chatter about whether Joseph Kosinski’s action-packed sequel can snag a nom for best picture. While that will likely continue leading up to Oscar noms, one thing that seems undeniable is the technical achievements, including cinematography, sound, visual effects, and, most notably, film editing. The categories for editing and sound have gone to the same movie in the last decade (no two categories have a more extended correlation in the 94-year Oscar history). That tradition could continue with editor Eddie Hamilton (“Mission: Impossible – Fallout”) at the forefront. With Tom Cruise’s undeniable charm, the pulse-pounding pace will keep the long-awaited title at the top of voters’ minds.
Also in the discussion: “Ambulance” (Universal Pictures), “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
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Makeup and Hairstyling: 'Jackass Forever' (Paramount Pictures)
“Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa” (2013) shocked many when it captured an Oscar nom in this category, ahead of best picture nominee “American Hustle,” and even made the shortlist. Our favorite bunch of pranksters’ long-awaited return for the fourth installment could bring it back to the party, especially after an impressive $80 million haul on a $10 million budget. (The final names for Oscar submission have not yet been determined.)
Also in the discussion: “The Batman” (Warner Bros), “Crimes of the Future” (Neon)
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Sound: 'Ambulance' (Universal Pictures)
Director Michael Bay has created many movies that have been cited in the sound categories (through all of its iterations). Films like “The Rock” (1996), “Armageddon” (1998), “Pearl Harbor” (2001) and “Transformers” (2007) were all able to overcome genre bias and mixed reviews. This remake of the 2005 Danish film, with Jake Gyllenhaal, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Eiza González, could get the proper push from Universal to contend for one of the shortlist spots, and perhaps go further in the race. (Final names for Oscar submissions have not yet been determined.)
Also in the discussion: “The Batman” (Warner Bros), “Lightyear” (Pixar)
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Visual Effects: 'Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness' (Marvel Studios)
Aside from a very worthy mention for Danny Elfman’s best score in decades, Marvel’s “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” assembles an unconventional horror superhero film with outstanding visuals on display. Marvel films have mostly found room to be embraced in visual effects categories, and the Benedict Cumberbatch vehicle could be another example, especially since the 2016 feature also made the lineup. (Final names for Oscar submission have not yet been determined.)
Also in the discussion: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24), “Jurassic World: Dominion” (Universal Pictures)
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Original Score: 'The Batman' (Warner Bros)
If there’s one technical aspect of any film from 2022 so far that stands above everything in any category; it’s composer Michael Giacchino’s career-best work in Matt Reeves’ “The Batman.” Giacchino showcases more of his range on Pixar’s “Lightyear” (which also showcases luminous joy), and he’s no stranger to the music branch, landing noms for “Ratatouille” (2007) and winning for “Up” (2009). Despite that, he also has a couple of egregious snubs under his belt, including “Inside Out” (2015), “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” (2016) and “Coco” (2017). Nevertheless, it’s the one element that deserves all the accolades that (hopefully) will come his way.
Also in the discussion: “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” (Marvel Studios), “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
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Original Song: 'Nobody Like U' from 'Turning Red' (Pixar)
After winning the Oscar earlier this year for “No Time to Die” from the final James Bond outing with Daniel Craig, Grammy-winning superstars Billie Eilish and Finneas offered their talents this time to the coming-of-age animated film “Turning Red” from Pixar. Disney has always had a knack for ruling this category with its animated gems, and you can expect a push for the songwriting duo to come in the fall awards season.
Also in the discussion: “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
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Documentary Feature: 'Cow' (IFC Films)
Playing the festival circuit in 2021 by debuting at Cannes before stopping at Telluride, the doc feature from Andrea Arnold already has its fans with its cinéma vérité shooting style that follows the life of Luma, a dairy cow in England. It’s Arnold’s first doc after strong narrative films such as “Fish Tank” (2009) and “American Honey” (2016), and branch members would be misguided if they didn’t warm up to its allure and emotional tale that feels even more relevant today.
Also in the discussion: “Descendant” (Netflix), “Fire of Love” (Neon)