Summer Movie Meltdown Math: Years of Box Office Data Reveal Discouraging Trends

One month into summer, 2024’s box office is in serious need of a rebound.

Only 20th Century’s “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” has passed the $100 million domestic mark that sequels to “Dune,” “Godzilla vs. Kong,” “Kung Fu Panda” and “Ghostbusters” did during the spring season.

Warner Bros.’ “Furiosa,” a follow-up to 2014’s “Mad Max: Fury Road” that carried the heftiest May budget at $160 million, was anything but furious when it came to ticket sales, despite positive reviews. The R-rated actioner barely passed $50 million by the end of its second weekend and was beaten by Sony’s animated “Garfield” movie.

Amid the broader years-long recovery from the pandemic, it’s a troubling outcome for theaters.

Excusing 2020 and 2021, this was the worst May at the movies in decades, per Comscore. The first summer month of 2024 was down more than 30% from May 2022, after summer 2023 as a whole beat that of 2017, thanks to the success of blockbusters like “Barbie,” “Spider-Verse 2,” “Guardians of the Galaxy 3” and “Oppenheimer.”

The rest of the summer isn’t looking much better, but June’s offerings might carry a stronger punch.

“Bad Boys 4” from Sony is the first June tentpole out today, alongside Ishana Night Shyamalan’s horror debut “The Watchers” from Warners, which will also release “Trap” from father M. Night Shyamalan in August. While there’s some speculation as to “Bad Boys” star Will Smith’s viability after the infamous Oscars slap two years ago, “Bad Boys 3” was a genuine hit and the last of its kind to come in 2020 before COVID shut down theaters.

May did not have as strong of an opener in Universal’s “The Fall Guy,” which net just under $28 million domestically in its first weekend. “Guardians” kicked off the summer last year but was followed by the Hollywood strikes and Disney’s decision to delay every Marvel title to 2025 except July’s “Deadpool & Wolverine,” bucking the trend of the summer season typically starting with one of Disney’s Marvel offerings.

When tallied, the number of wide releases from major studios this summer is grim. By the end of August, fewer than 20 films from the traditional studios will have played in theaters, the lowest amount of such Hollywood offerings since 2020.

Still, “Garfield” beating “Furiosa” is a likely indication of which films will deliver on the $100 million opening threshold. “Inside Out 2,” a sequel to 2015’s hit film from Pixar, releases next weekend with virtually no competition. “Garfield” isn’t the strongest performer, but Universal’s “Kung Fu Panda 4” is finishing its spring run at just under $200 million domestically, the best such haul for the franchise since the first film in 2008. “Inside Out” was a far bigger hit, grossing over $350 million stateside and close to $860 million globally.

Likewise, the best May film after “Apes” was another animated offering. Paramount’s “IF” from John Krasinski has grossed more than $80 million domestically after three weekends, a modest haul but decent for new animated IP.

Should “Inside Out 2” match or exceed “Kung Fu Panda 4,” it will build up substantial demand for Universal and Illumination’s fourth “Despicable Me” film, which will kick off July. That franchise includes “Minions” and has contributed two billion-dollar grossers to date.

Before then, Paramount’s “A Quiet Place: Day One” prequel may also deliver substantial turnout when it bows June 28. The last entry in 2021 played a crucial role in the post-COVID theater revival, though the lack of stars Emily Blunt or Cillian Murphy makes summer success less predictable.

More concerning is the rest of summer. The next “Deadpool” sequel already set record first-day ticket sales for any R-rated film ahead of its July 26 date, but other than that and “Despicable Me 4,” July is barren when it comes to new entries from established franchises. The same goes for August, where “Alien: Romulus” is the only title belonging to familiar IP, though its expected R rating won’t make it a major player.

To get the summer back on track with last year, June’s offerings will ultimately have to add about $1.5 billion to May’s diminished haul. “Inside Out 2” should help deliver a better outcome than last month, but with just the “Bad Boys” and “Quiet Place” titles to pad out the month, July tentpoles will need to do the heaviest lifting.