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Blogger Bruce Charlton said...

@John - An inspired piece!

It made me also think of Jonathan Strange and Mr Norrell with its wonderful depiction of The Raven King as a sacred (Medieval) monarch of the North of England (with his magical, and now disappeared, castle supposedly located just a couple of hundred yards from where I type this). I am sure that Susanna Clarke was (literally) inspired when she wrote that book - and she intuited a profound need in the English soul.

23 March 2016 at 10:28

Blogger Bruce Charlton said...

@John - Another aspect that struck me was to consider the other major Western nations and their 'regicide'/ republican moments - and to suppose that the Washington (USA), Bismarck (Germany), and Garibaldi (Italy) were architects of the (less-qualitative, less abrupt) equivalents of the huge steps towards the current void that you mention.

In the post-medieval world, at least, any republic (whatever its short term nature and explicit aim) is intrinsically secular in the long run (and, of course, the supposed 'constitutional' monarchies that still survive are also de facto republics).

23 March 2016 at 10:45

Blogger Dexter said...

It's worth remembering as well that the course of History is a very deep and mysterious thing. Who in late 1941, for instance, would have predicted that the all-conquering Nazi hegemon would be (literally) dust and ashes a mere three and a half years later? Similarly, no-one in the late-80s, as far as I can remember, apart from the great Alexander Solzhenitsyn, predicated the downfall of Soviet Communism.

There was nothing deep or mysterious about either of those. In late 1941, Germany was at war with two great powers (the British Empire and the USSR) who had the backing of the world's mightiest industrial power (the USA). As many authors have noted, Operation Barbarossa failed in August 1941 and to defeat the USSR was likely beyond Germany's power under any circumstances. The subsequent defeat of Germany did not require any mysterious divine spark, merely the intelligent application of national power by the (then) non-suicidal British, American, and Soviet leaderships.

Similarly, in the early 1980s, the United States leadership developed an intelligent plan to apply national power to ensure the downfall of Soviet Communism. The question was not whether this would happen, but when. The writing was on the wall for the USSR and that is why Gorbachev came to power.

You don't need a divine spark as much as you need the will to win, the resources to win, and a plan to win. But Bruce hates talk about strategy, so I shall say no more.

23 March 2016 at 17:14

Blogger Bruce Charlton said...

@Dexter: "You don't need a divine spark as much as you need the will to win, the resources to win, and a plan to win. "

Without the divine spark (ie religion of some types) there is no will to win - and without the will, resources and plans don't make any difference at all, they are 'just talk' - because they will not be implemented - as we see daily.

John's point is that big things happen quickly sometimes - with a timescale of weeks or months. The fall of the USSR and the entire Eastern Bloc was a *big* surprise to most people.

23 March 2016 at 18:33

Blogger Dexter said...

Were Britain, the USA, and the USSR motivated by a divine spark from 1941 to 1945?

At that time, at least, seems to me the imperative to avoid enslavement and extermination was sufficient.

23 March 2016 at 21:14

Blogger Bruce Charlton said...

@Dexter - I don't know where you get this 'divine spark' idea from! But the US and the UK were still strongly Christian countires, and the USSR was still in the first generation of post-religious idealistic communism/ nationalism (after which they always fade) and indeed Christianity was powerful in the USSR in an underground sense - and Stalin lifted the savagery of repression during WWII to exploit this. There is no imperative to avoid enslavement and extermination in the modern West - indeed the imperative of the modern Western elites is precisely to do this to their national populations.

23 March 2016 at 21:39

Blogger Seeker said...

Sparks need not always be divine. Hell is reportedly very good at it too. Hitler caught them up and set the German people on fire.

Spiritual passions can be satanically inspired.

Seeker

23 March 2016 at 23:47

Blogger Bruce Charlton said...

LEO COMMENTS:

It is often the task of the historian to explain why events could not have turned out otherwise than they did. Of course, writing in retrospect, the historian always appears to be right. The true test of historical explanations is their ability to predict the future. But no historian or historical theory has had anywhere near a perfect track record. Predictions of solar eclipses have had a very good record. Predictions about the weather are pretty good for a few days and become more random after that. The safest assumption about human history is that there will be surprises. I believe it was Lord Melbourne who said, "What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damn fools said would happen has come to pass."

And a lot of people have looked back on the past and concluded there have been a lot significant near run things.

As for divine sparks, in general people either believe the world is full of them or they don't believe in them at all. I am in the former camp.

24 March 2016 at 05:54