The Yankees have gone 6-17 in their last 23 games. The Dodgers have a virtual All-Star team on the injured list and were just swept by the Phillies. Philadelphia has the best record in baseball by 3.5 games with the Guardians having the second-best record, a half-game better than the Orioles.
And yet, here are the current odds to win the World Series:
What gives? Let's take a look.
Yankees
A general rule of thumb is the Yankees are always going to have bad odds due to them being the most popular and discussed team. It causes so many bettors to throw money on them and skews the odds. Just looking at the rosters right now, there's no way I'd say the Yankees have the best chance to win the AL pennant, and yet, they are the betting favorite. They certainly have enough talent to make a run, but I'd rather run with the Astros, Orioles or my sleeper team listed down below.
Dodgers
Similar to the Yankees, the Dodgers are never going to give us a good price due to their massive star power. So many casual fans/bettors are going to run with them that it tamps down the odds.
There's also this: The Dodgers are going through all kinds of injury adversity and still have a seven-game lead in the NL West. It's entirely possible they hit the playoffs with a healthy and fully functional rotation of Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler. Mookie Betts and Max Muncy will be back, deepening their already strong lineup.
All they have to do is make the playoffs and then, if everyone is healthy and playing well, the Dodgers could well be a juggernaut. I'm not averse to betting them to win it all. They are that loaded when everyone is off the injured list.
Phillies
Though it isn't L.A. or N.Y.C., Philly is a huge market and I'm surprised the Phillies haven't seen more of a bump in how well things are going for them this season. As things stand right now, I think they are the most likely team to win the World Series and the odds don't reflect that. It isn't like they haven't faced any adversity. They've had injuries to Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto. The rotation is the best in baseball and deep. The rotation has been so good that it's kept the bullpen rested and incredibly effective. We know how dynamic the offense can be. They are built exceptionally well for the playoffs with four All-Star-caliber starting pitchers, a powerful and deep lineup, and an outstanding back-end of the bullpen. They can cruise in October and I'm sticking with my preseason pick of the Phillies as World Series champions.
If you agree, jump on them.
Possible bargain plays
I like the Twins at +2500. They have the look of a playoff team and we've seen plenty of teams make deep runs from Wild Card spots. The offense can be great and if they can keep Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa in the lineup every day in October, it bodes well for their chances. The rotation could be really strong if Joe Ryan and Pablo López are at their best and the bullpen can be great.
Also, while I don't think they'll even make the playoffs, maybe the Pirates are worth a sprinkle? They are +17500. Let's say they sneak into a Wild Card spot and then run out a top three playoff rotation of Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Jared Jones? It's conceivable that they'd be able to make a run not unlike what the Diamondbacks did last year.
