AI darling Nvidia reports after the bell. What Wall Street is watching

Published Wed, May 22 20241:44 PM EDTUpdated Wed, May 22 20242:20 PM EDT

Wall Street will be keeping close watch on what Nvidia says about demand for its artificial intelligence chips when the market-moving chipmaker reports quarterly results after the bell Wednesday. Nvidia is expected to surpass expectations again, with analysts polled by LSEG calling for earnings of $5.59 per share on $24.65 billion in revenue. Even more critical is its forecast as the company reaches the anniversary of the groundbreaking print that set off the AI frenzy that tripled its stock over the past year. "While top-and-bottom-line surprises could be lower than they've been in recent quarters, we're most focused on F2Q25 revenue guidance," wrote Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek. "As long as it tops analyst expectations, NVIDIA is likely to remain a key tailwind for the overall U.S. stock market." NVDA 1Y mountain Shares over the last year For multiple quarters, Nvidia has shocked Wall Street with the robust demand for its tools. Analysts expect the outlook to show that demand is continuing, as the mania for all things AI shows no signs of easing. "We continue to expect a strong beat-and-raise quarter from NVIDIA as Hopper demand remains robust before the Blackwell transition," wrote Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore. Underpinning that upbeat expectation is Nvidia's H100 Hopper chips, which support large language models, and the upcoming launch of its latest Blackwell graphics processing units. Channel checks already suggest that demand for the new series appears strong, according to Piper Sandler's Harsh Kumar. Rosenblatt's Hans Mosesmann expects the new chip to be sold out for at least a year. Baird's Tristan Gerra increased his GPU shipment forecast for 2025 and data center outlook, expecting the company to ship around 4.7 million GPUs this year and more than 6 million the following year. Loop Capital's Ananda Baruah estimates that Nvidia's GPU opportunity could hit $150 billion in 2024 and between $160 billion and $200 billion next year. Along with the outlook revisions, several analysts raised their price targets on the stock heading into the print. Barclays analyst Tom O'Malley moved to $1,100 from $850 a share, implying 15% upside from Tuesday's close. Baird's Gerra lifted his target to $1,200 from $1,050, suggesting 26% upside. Potential 'air pocket' To be sure, some analysts are worried about a potential slowdown in growth from the previous quarter, or an "air pocket" in sales toward year-end, as the ramp in Nvidia's Blackwell chips gets underway and customers hold off on purchases in order to buy the more advanced technology. Bank of America's Vivek Arya expects this setup to potentially lead to a near-term deceleration heading into the transition. Arya also noted the fiscal first quarter also marks one of the first with single-digit quarter-over-quarter sales growth, which could provide fuel to the Nvidia bears. "While this probably doesn't get answered/addressed on this earnings call, we think these concerns are generally overblown following recent customer discussions and supply chain work suggesting Hopper remains sold out at least through the end of this year," wrote UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri. NVDA YTD mountain Shares this year Rosenblatt's Mosesmann said the company already faces steeper year-over-year comparisons relative to last year's blowout quarter, and as supply chains improve. But many analysts have brushed off those concerns, with Barclays' O'Malley noting that checks still point to greater than $1 billion upside in April and $2 billion for the July quarter. "Our view is that the Nvidia customer base has sufficient breath to effectively navigate the transition and the company's public confidence in the demand profile and accompanying supply ramp is indicative of that," said Morgan Stanley's Moore.