Bitcoin investors see sideways trading in June as focus turns to Washington

Published Sat, Jun 1 20248:44 AM EDTUpdated Mon, Jun 3 20243:48 PM EDT

Markets are nearing the official start of summer, but bitcoin may languish in June. The flagship cryptocurrency jumped 13% in May, according to Coin Metrics, its eighth monthly gain in the past nine months and its best month since February, when it soared 44%. That's thanks to last week's ether-led rally ahead of the SEC's approval of a rule change allowing ether ETFs in the U.S., when ether surged 20% in two days. Now, aspiring sponsors of ether ETFs need to file their S-1 registration forms for the individual funds. Until then, crypto is without a clear catalyst, with bitcoin ETFs and the halving in the rear view window. "Once these new products are fully rubber-stamped by the SEC, possibly as soon as late June, you can expect that to act as a catalyst for ether and the wider altcoin space, with bitcoin coming along for the ride," said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto exchange Nexo. BTC.CM= 3M mountain Bitcoin has traded in a tight range since retreating from its March record "Bitcoin has barely budged in the past three months and more of the same isn't necessarily a bad thing as long, and dull, periods of consolidation usually precede violent moves – just look at the last halving year in 2020 when Bitcoin sat on its hands for five months before exploding upwards," Trenchev added. Bitcoin has added $5400 or 8.7% in the past three months. June looks precarious for bitcoin — the cryptocurrency has an average return in the month of just 0.25% over the last 10 years, according to CoinGlass. Trenchev noted that the return is skewed by two particularly bad years in 2022 and 2013. In the month ahead, traders will be watching the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting on June 11 and 12, especially after Friday's reading of the central bank's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% in April, as expected . As a result, "bitcoin could continue to fluctuate within the descending channel," said Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Japanese bitcoin exchange Bitbank. Furthermore, "bitcoin could quickly give up about a half of its gain in the past two weeks and decline to around $65,000." Beyond Fed policy, Washington "will continue to be the center of the world for crypto in June" with investors listening closely to U.S. presidential campaign messaging, after the SEC's embrace of ether ETFs highlighted crypto's shifting political fortunes , Trenchev said. "The last month has witnessed the improbable and unlikely sight of both sides of the U.S. political divide warming to crypto ahead of the U.S. election," Trenchev said. "Witnessing that narrative continue to play out in June will be a riveting sport and has huge implications for long-term regulation of the space." Bitcoin miners struggle after the halving Elsewhere, the bitcoin price could see some pressure from miner selling. Hasegawa said the average time it takes miners to find and process a new block is rising, while the network's hash rate – the combined computational power required by miners to mine bitcoin and process network transactions – is declining. That suggests that their profitability is weakening as their ability to mine new coins wanes. "This indicates that bitcoin mining profitability is declining and miners are struggling to mine," Hasegawa said. "If the price keeps sliding, they might have to sell their bitcoin holdings to [maintain] cash flow, which could cause a vicious cycle." Market watchers anticipated this would hppen after April's bitcoin halving, which slashed a key revenue source – the block reward – for bitcoin miners. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, attributes their current struggle to a decline in transaction fees after the halving. That said, there's been no heavy selling yet from miners, he said.