Insurance stocks with the most at risk from Beryl and the rest of this likely active hurricane season

Published Mon, Jul 8 20241:06 PM EDTUpdated Mon, Jul 8 20241:42 PM EDT

The insurance industry is bracing for a likely tough hurricane season as Beryl struck the coast of Texas early Monday. Wall Street analysts identified several insurance stocks with the most at risk from future dangerous storms. Over the past few days, Beryl cut a deadly path through parts of the Caribbean and Mexico before sweeping into Texas with heavy rains and powerful winds. The intensity and timing of Beryl served as an ominous sign that this hurricane season could be an active one, analysts said. "Hurricane Beryl was the earliest CAT-5 Hurricane on record over the past 100 years, confirming that 2024 Hurricane Season will be an active one, in our view," Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Jian Huang said in a note to clients. "We believe ocean surface temperature continues to be conducive for hurricane formation." Even mild storms can result in fatalities and injuries while wreaking havoc to energy, agriculture and financial assets. While difficult to predict insurance losses, analysts looked at the market share of catastrophe-prone carriers to assess their possible exposure to hurricane risks in Texas and elsewhere. Stocks with the most exposure Insurance stocks typically fall as a hurricane makes landfall and often rebound after the size of the insured losses become known. Meanwhile, a dangerous storm season often raises policy prices at the start of the following year amid a rise in demand. "Typically, if a weather event is large, the stocks with the most exposure react the most," Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler's insurance analyst, said in a note. "We would expect companies with market share in [catastrophe] prone lines like home insurance and commercial multiple peril in Texas to fall the most." Newsome said the companies in his coverage with significant weather catastrophe exposure include Allstate , Progressive, Chubb, AIG and Travelers . Meanwhile, companies with specific Gulf Coast exposure include some of the Florida specialists such as Heritage and Universal Insurance . Morgan Stanley looked at the top property and casualty insurers in Texas and named Allstate, Progressive, Travelers and Chubb as those with notable exposure. The Wall Street investment bank noted that they all cover commercial multiperil, farm, federal and private flood, fire, home, multiple peril crop inland marine exposure.