Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, with ballots out and voting underway, we’re taking a look at drama.
Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! Emmy voting is happening right now and we’re here to continue the conversation we started Thursday about the 2024 ballots — this time focused exclusively on the drama categories. No big surprises here, unless you count Alexander Skarsgard not being submitted for guest actor on “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” a “big surprise,” but this year’s submissions helped clarify that the race is really simply a battle between three shows with one huge frontrunner well ahead. In fact, as you mathed out for us, if “Shōgun” hadn’t moved here from the limited series race, the drama lead acting races would be stuck with five nominees like it was comedy. The dual Best Actor submissions for “Shōgun” for #theboys Hiroyuki Sanada and Cosmo Jarvis put that category at 81 entrants, the absolute floor for six slots — and thanks to mandated gender parity across categories, that got a sixth slot in Best Drama Actress, which, as you counted, had significantly fewer options. So good news for all the contenders at the back of the predictions list. Less good news for the supporting categories, which contracted to seven slots from last year’s eight, meaning choices must be made in those races. We’ll do our updated picks next week in full, but for the purposes of typing, I’ll note that I dropped Karen Pittman for “The Morning Show” and Nathan Lane for “The Gilded Age” from my supporting picks only because I was forced to do so. I could see a world where they get in, but I also think in a competitive year with a voting body that just focuses on shows they like and watch, it might be hard. That’s also why I’ve done something out of character: In Best Drama Actress, I dropped Maya Erskine, who I interviewed and I love, and added in Ella Purnell, who you interviewed and I love, basically because… vibes? Those are two great Amazon shows, but while the “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” team has been pounding the campaign pavement, I just get the sense “Fallout” is the bigger deal. I kind of think Purnell is this year’s Jenna Ortega in a different genre. There haven’t been a great many breakout hits — and “Fallout” is no “Wednesday” even when judged by today’s inscrutable and borderline phony streaming metrics — but the video game adaptation did make an impact in a way “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” maybe did not. That’s a shame because I liked “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” more, but such is life. I guess I can keep Erskine in there too, but I’m back on the Reese Witherspoon bandwagon because #campaign. Witherspoon shut me right the hell up after I suggested she wasn’t doing a lot of glad-handing for “The Morning Show.” She’s kind of everywhere now and it’s a good reminder that everyone loves her. I’ll probably make another six changes to that category before this sentence is out, so let me toss it over to you so you can tell me how foolish I’m being and also give me your take on the ballots.
joyceeng: Wow, what’s next? You’re not going to predict a single person you’ve interviewed? Could you ever show such restraint? I felt better about Purnell before “Fallout” premiered — and I had her in then — because she seemed poised to carry the young “breakout” nominee torch from Ortega and Bella Ramsey. She’s fantastic and I would vote for her, but despite its massive vague numbers, it never felt like “Fallout” and/or Lucy cracked the zeitgeist broadly the same way “Wednesday” and “The Last of Us” did. That ultimately might not matter in such a weak field, but it’s enough for me to question her status rather than lock her in. Plus, as we’ve discussed many times, it’s hard to gauge how voters will respond to the “Fallout” actors. It could get anywhere from zero noms to, like, nine. It’s ironic you’ve been so dismissive of Witherspoon because of her comparatively soft campaign — lbr, Jennifer Aniston has always out-campaigned her (no shade) and Witherspoon got in over her for Season 2 — when the contender who’s been completely absent from the circuit is Imelda Staunton. Witherspoon has been nominated for her show before, which is more than Staunton can say. Miss Laura Jean Reese Witherspoon is also the only drama actress nominee from the past two years who is eligible this year. Staunton was the big snub last year, so why can’t she miss again? Especially by your metric of #campaign. It kind of feels like we all have Staunton in by default because of the lack of depth of the field and “The Crown” wrapping up its run with a season that was slightly better than its forgettable fifth outing. Staunton didn’t campaign last year either and it’s totally cool for her not to — you do you, girl! — but Netflix‘s campaign isn’t centering her. The streamer could certainly craft a “this is your last chance to honor Imelda Staunton” narrative like it did for Claire Foy for Season 2 (and she won), but the campaign seems to be playing up the legacy of the series as a whole. So if you wanna get both of your Amazon ladies in, why not dispatch the person who’s been MIA on the trail and has been snubbed already?
SEE Experts slugfest: Breaking down the 2024 Emmy ballots
Christopher Rosen: Much to consider. I have had Staunton at the bottom of my picks and I don’t think she’d be anyone’s top choice. Another snub feels real — or maybe it’s not even a snub if she’s not actually a top competitor? I like your thinking here! Let’s shift over to actor where the “Shōgun” fellas are sure to get in and we’ve both got Walton Goggins, who’s finally passed Colin Farrell in the odds (our favorite martian is still hanging around in seventh). Gary Oldman, Donald Glover and Dominic West all feel… fine? I don’t really have a lot of passionate alternate ideas for this category so I’ll probably go chalk. What are you thinking in terms of actor? Will Nathan Fielder make it in alongside his Oscar-winning co-star?
joyceeng: I never had Fielder in before the “Shōgun” breach and — no offense to him — I’m not going to start. I already feel terribly uneasy about Emma Stone getting in for a weird esoteric maze of a show that we probably wouldn’t even be heavily considering were it not for the barren nature of the drama field. Sanada and Jarvis entering the chat made it easier to fill out the category and I’m pretty sure nearly everyone will have the same six by July 17. That feels too neat and tidy, but I don’t know if I’d roll the dice on any of the fringe contenders. Not to dunk on “The Crown,” but it’s expected to collect a bunch of acting nominations — a year after it flatlined and only got one acting bid (down from nine for Season 4), for Elizabeth Debicki, who is all but certain to deliver its biggest win this year. I think it’ll definitely get more than one this time (Foy says hi), but are we over-estimating voters’ willingness to return to the show? At the same time, there are not a lot of “obvious” alternatives. Olivia Williams also added a wrinkle by not submitting in supporting actress.
SEE Emmy Experts Typing: What comedy series are we underestimating?
Christopher Rosen: We certainly could be — I have Staunton, West, Debicki, Lesley Manville and Khalid Abdalla — but I’m just not sure where the alternatives might come. This is why — contrary to our odds — I have multiple “Shōgun” actors in the supporting races, including assumed long shots Tokuma Nishioka and Takehiro Hira (who also co-stars on my favorite show “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters”). We’ve seen Emmy voters go big on shows when they love the shows. We all assume they love “Shōgun” — even if by default in this drama race. Why won’t it place a significant amount of actors? I’ll let you have the last word here as I go figure out what I want to do with my other Emmy picks.
joyceeng: I’d be shocked if most people don’t have various combos of actors from “The Crown,” “The Morning Show” and “Shōgun” in the supporting categories. Again, too neat and tidy. I want there to be a left-field nominee from an underdog show, but I’m not holding my breath, especially with the loss of a slot. Our only hope is for voters to be loving a show on the D-L. What is this year’s “Welcome to Chippendales”?
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?
