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Desperately want my gay dads to get nominated! Make it happen Academy
Luke James is amazing in Them: The Scare (Amazon).
Next Best Picture published their final predictions podcast and spent a solid five minutes debating which True Detective actress (Kali Reis or Fiona Shaw) would be nominated in supporting, the latter of whom wasn’t even submitted.
Next Best Picture published their final predictions podcast and spent a solid five minutes debating which True Detective actress (Kali Reis or Fiona Shaw) would be nominated in supporting, the latter of whom wasn’t even submitted.
I pretty much never look at NBP’s tv predictions because they don’t care, they’re only doing it because there’s not much to talk about with the film season. This is also true to many major publications but oh well. I only really listen to Joyce and Christopher’s slugfest over here because while they’re wrong in somethings they at least do their homework and look invested in it.
It's all about the 3x Best Drama Series winner Succession!
The Astra limited and tv movie nominations
The 2024 Hollywood Creative Alliance (HCA) Astra TV Award Nominations
Are a little bad
Not too good
Downey being the sole nominee for the Sympathizer despite every category being a field of 10 is so deeply unserious.
Really surprised that a group of critics didn’t go for Expats.
Surprised nothing at all for Griselda, not even for Vergara.
Really wish they would’ve embraced the wider ensemble of Fellow Travellers – Aladdin, Brill, Ricketts, Roche and Williams all gave top tier performances and none of getting recognised anywhere is such a shame.
Wait is this really voted by actual critics?
The Astra limited and tv movie nominations https://nextbestpicture.com/the-2024-hollywood-creative-alliance-hca-astra-tv-award-nominations/embed/#?secret=yzJIXc4bty#?secret=04kmqdM7Bc Are a little bad Not too good
FEUD didn’t have 1 nomination? Even John Cena got a nomination…. Oh God. Naomi Watts needs a prayer chain lol
Wait is this really voted by actual critics?
No it’s pundits that weren’t allowed to be CC lol
Wait is this really voted by actual critics?
A few work freelance and cover for genre publications. But not really a majority.
It’s interesting to give space to cable and broadcast but inserting certain things and forgetting others makes it all less credible, if not ridiculous
Starting with the hardest categories as may not get time for them all so hoping to gain something by at least airing my thoughts on a few.
LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Jessica Gunning – This category is such a free for all that she should be locked and the only way she isn’t is if Baby Reindeer somehow just doesn’t register with voters.
2. Kali Reis – Voters will have seen this show, she’s basically a co-lead and, as mentioned above, this category is a real mindfuck.
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh – I know most of us would love her to be snubbed for her recent actions but I think that’s probably wishful thinking. Fargo will have been seen and her performance was for many the standout after Temple’s. I don’t think Hollywood is switched on enough to know about her behaviour nor brave enough not to vote for her just for that reason even if they have.
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4. Nava Mau – This year’s Ashley Park? I’m semi-confident in her but it’s hard not to be reminded of how last year’s Limited Series winner couldn’t get a second supporting actress into a similarly bizarre category. It’s also arguably an even harder feat given that both Reindeer contenders are previous unknowns to US audiences. I’d probably have talked myself out of this one already if I had a clue who to put in instead.
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5. Aja Naomi King – I am very uncomfortable with how widely predicted she is. Yes Lessons in Chemistry did okay at the winter awards but it’s still an Apple show. I’m sticking with her on the basis that even Blackbird got three acting nods (albeit much bigger names) and the CC nom, whilst pretty much meaningless, at least confirms that many people watching it are backing her and it’s not just a stan thing. Very wary on this one – especially as she also has a co-star two places away on the ballot and both of them are buried deep.
6. Richa Moorjani – Barring the small period between the Shogun finale and it moving to Drama, I’ve actually had her since the center opened. Mostly following the same premise of doubling down on what they will likely have seen and perhaps liked. I think the likeability of her character also fits in with other surprise noms the Emmys have gone for in the past.
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7. Lily Gladstone – I could not have less of an idea from this point. I would love to be given the secret as to what is this year’s Welcome to Chippendales. And I guess that’s part of why I’ve flipped back to Gladstone because I think Hulu does have uncanny knack of being the one to deliver the shocks and I think that’s probably because, like Netflix, it’s a genuinely established streamer that all voters watch regularly. This also helped Tiny Beautiful Things after all. The main difference being that Under the Bridge actually arrived relatively late and April/May releases have been punished more than early ones in the peak TV era.
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8. Dakota Fanning – Netflix and only Netflix is really prompting me to place her here. I don’t really believe Ripley is going to land big but I could obviously be wrong about this. Fanning is established enough to coattail Scott in such a weak category. But I’m not compelled to predict her as it really does feel like his show in a way that none of the others do.
9. Sandra Oh – Just dropped her because it’s hard to justify at this point. Yes she’s a big name but that tends to be hit or miss with default noms so it’s impossible to know if it will matter. Sympathiser was relatively late to the game and lacked both buzz and viewership. Unlike Netflix and Hulu, HBO has also not been the recent recipient of extra noms for also-ran shows. She can get in if they have watched and because she’s who she is in a category of who cares. But I’m not predicting.
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10/11. Jessica Lange/Diane Lane – Feud in general definitely could be one I’m underpredicting and I totally could be blinded by how fundamentally crap I found it. Murphy has also been known to sneak actors in and this does have that early year release slot that means it might have got the eyeballs over time even if not all at once. But Murphy also hasn’t got lots of acting noms for any of his shows that haven’t been hits. It’s usually just the one or two nods at most and that would surely be Hollander and Watts if anything. I have Lange and Lane ahead due to their pedigree despite their poor ballot placement. Giving the edge to Lange as she’s not only the bigger name but also is pretty much the only Supporting performer to actual get even one great scene in the first two episodes so if many voters started then stopped that could help her.
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12. Alison Williams – I’m now just on the look out for coattails and I’m intrigued by Fellow Travellers possibly being this year’s little show that could. Given the collapse of most of the contenders debuting in 2024 it’s possible that even with it’s underwhelming winter performance, it got enough recognition there to get voters watching this year as they looked to consider. Showtime is of course what holds me back but if they have watched then Williams has a great ballot placement and is in the right period of her career for a first nod.
13. Isabella Star La Blanc – Following on again from comments above. True Detective should be a series nominee so it commanding two nods here makes some sense. Fiona Shaw would have been an easy prediction but was bizarrely not submitted. La Blanc is such an unknown that she will really need them to like the show. Last year I probably would have predicted her but then they kept too much to their character actresses for me to make that feasible this time round.
14. Another Feud actress – I’m lazy but take your pick. Any of them could be the surprise default that then everyone will go “oh it was obvious” for years to come.
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15. Gillian Anderson – Early in the ballot and easy name check. Netflix helps but TV movie sets back.
14. Juliana Aidén Martinez – Griselda still has the small potential for surprise Netflix impact. Aiden Martinez stood out to me because I was looking at who was at the forefront of the ballots. It’s a memorable enough role but I doubt we’re heading this way.
I’ll stop there but my last prediction is that this is category pretty much locked to nominate someone I haven’t mentioned.
Introducing the only Emmy category I think I could genuinely get zero on.
LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Finn Bennett – moved him to number one after recently starting True Detective. It’s gonna be a series nominee, he’s got great ballot placement and it’s a likeable and memorable role. Do I think he’ll win? No but it’s an easy number one placeholder for the noms. Previous unknown status would be reason to miss.
2. Robert Downey Jr. – Was uncomfortable with his default win status but much happier now I’ve moved him down a slot. He could miss but my attitude here is that if The Sympathiser is getting in anywhere it’s here. The category is also barren enough to support him as a sole nominee for the show if it comes to that. Recent HBO shows to be shutout had worse critical receptions but did have not incomparable ratings…
3. Lewis Pullman – I can’t tell if I’m being totally blinded on this one by how much I would nominate him. But in such a WTF category, I’m taking the approach that we know the industry has watched the show and he just dazzles in the first two instalments as well as having an episode to himself. Could just be Larson but that would make all of our series predictions for the show more questionable so easier just to keep him in.
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4. Tom Goodman-Hill – Can easily be snubbed as Reindeer does not need to get in everywhere. But it’s the presumed frontrunner and he’s the only contender for this category. Would be dumb not to predict given I have no idea what I’m doing here.
5. John Hawkes – I feel pretty confident in True Detective being our series runner up and it aired at a great time for visibility across the past few months. Hawkes is an established face so even if his role doesn’t jump out like Bennett’s does, he suits the profile of who voters lean towards when they are unsure.
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6. Joe Keery – could really have put any Fargo supporting actor here but Keery has the biggest and most digestible role so defaulting to him. I do think there’s a chance that Fargo underperforms on nomination day but these categories lack other options for me to actually predict that.
7. Sam Spruell – Following that thought, Fargo should have visibility. And if voters watched all the way through then Spruell would be an obvious beneficiary.
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8. Jonathan Bailey – This year’s “I’m not predicting him because if I predict him he won’t get in”. When Shogun was here, it was a lot easy to justify a snub. Without it, I’m clinging onto Showtime being useless. But he is a star on the rise, and already won a televised award (albeit the worst one) so is 8th at the lowest. I have too much love for this show to let the Emmys have the privilege of disappointing me, however.
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9. Christopher Eccleston – We have seen how the removal of the unlimited ballot hasn’t stopped them just going for a couple of shows. With True Detective as a potential big player and Eccleston as another familiar character actor, I could easily see him as a slight surprise inclusion.
10. Johnny Flynn – Similar to how I spoke about Fanning except Flynn’s is obviously a more significant and memorable role. This category is just more competitive (just) hence his lower ranking than hers. It comes to the same reasoning: don’t believe enough in Ripley to predict but can see the potential coattail.
11. Lamorne Morris – I’ve predicted him on and off because of all the characters on this season of Fargo his has the purest morality which voters can sometimes fawn over if they’re going overboard on a show. Instinct says they would really need to love Fargo to go for him but in this field maybe they just need to have actually watched it.
12. Treat Williams – Stubbornly do not understand why everyone is predicting him at all. He has no role and posthumous noms happen so much less than anyone thinks they do. But yeah Feud may have the visibility and he has good ballot placement and the sentimental narrative due to his passing so it’s clearly a possibility.
13. Mark Ruffalo – Spoiler alert for my series predictions but I am definitely taking All the Light We Cannot See seriously in this barren field. Most likely to me is that it contends for Series and techs but maybe the lack of options and high viewership can even score it an acting nod despite the pans.
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14. Patrick Walker – Don’t really see Lessons in Chemistry as a show to get multiple acting nods in a single category but stranger things have happened. He has a great ballot placement and a warmth that may make him memorable to voters who are either struggling to select or start by checking off everyone they liked.
Thanks for your work forwadswill, i really appreciate reading it and makes me think about my own predictions.
Keep them coming.It's all about the 3x Best Drama Series winner Succession!
Forwardswill our supporting actor predictions are so similar it’s almost like you hacked into my Google drive and stole my draft haha (although I do have Bailey in instead of Keery)! I’m very grateful that I now have no need to post my ranking for that category.
TV FYC: Juno Temple ("Fargo"), Tony Shalhoub ("Mr. Monk's Last Case"), Rashida Jones ("Silo"), The Curse, Expats, The Gilded Age and Slow Horses in all categories.
The topic ‘2024 Emmy Awards Limited/Movie Categories (Part 6)’ is closed to new replies.
