Hurricane Beryl system expected to enter Gulf of Mexico, impact on Texas coast and Houston still uncertain

NOAA

Hurricane Beryl, which formed in the Atlantic Ocean and quickly grew into the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico in the upcoming weekend, but its impact on the central Texas coast is still uncertain.

Beryl grew into a massive Category 5 hurricane overnight, and the major system with winds up to 155 miles per hour is on a path to pummel Jamaica on Wednesday and touch down in the Yucatán Peninsula later in the week, according to the National Weather Service.

“It’s really unprecedented to see storms this strong this early in the season and that’s due to the very warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea,” Eric Berger, a meteorologist with Space City Weather told Houston Matters Tuesday.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica where the storm is expected on Wednesday. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are expected over Jamaica. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the south coast of Hispaniola, and a hurricane watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, according to the National Weather Service.

“My sense of what will happen is we will see enhanced rain chances Saturday and especially Sunday but I am not anticipating a hurricane to form in the Gulf and move into the central Texas coast,” Berger said.

“Beryl has certainly been unpredictable in the sense that it’s strengthened further than forecasters anticipated but right now I don’t expect a large hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico to threaten us,” he said.

Beryl could significantly weaken in the coming days as it encounters strong wind shear and drier air, potentially downgrading the storm into a category two hurricane by Thursday. But the system is on track to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend, likely as a tropical storm, Berger said.

Its impact on the Texas coast is still largely unknown.

Forecasts show the hurricane trending north after the system erupted into a massive Category 5 storm, enabling it to gain latitude. Despite an uncertain path for the major storm, Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are warmer than normal, adding to the storm’s unpredictability, according to Space City Weather.

“If you look at the history of storms rapidly intensifying, Beryl went from a depression to a major hurricane in 48 hours,” Berger said. “That kind of thing does happen from time to time in like September, but it has never happened in late June or early July.”

“It’s pretty much off the charts,” he said.