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Articles by Orphe
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Here's Why Mortgage Rates Won't Fall in 2024...
Here's Why Mortgage Rates Won't Fall in 2024...
By Orphe Divounguy
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The Yield Curve Finally "Un-inverts". What are Implications for Mortgage Rates?
The Yield Curve Finally "Un-inverts". What are Implications for Mortgage Rates?
By Orphe Divounguy
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More Construction is Good News. But , Supply Still Lags.
More Construction is Good News. But , Supply Still Lags.
By Orphe Divounguy
Contributions
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What are the most effective ways to forecast unemployment rates?
The most straightforward way to forecast monthly changes in the unemployment rate is to pay close attention to weekly unemployment insurance (UI) claims published by the U.S. Department of Labor. The DOL estimates labor flows from the ranks of the employed to the ranks of the unemployed (initial claims) as well as the total number of people currently unemployed who are eligible to receive unemployment insurance benefits (continuing claims). When comparing these two weekly series, data on continuing claims does a better job of predicting monthly changes in unemployment rate, payroll jobs and hours worked. Weekly claims data are also helpful to get a sense of changes in aggregate output well in advance of the official government sources.
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How do you measure the trade-off between inflation and unemployment?
Economists are continuing their re-examination of the Phillips Curve. This is because the relationship between inflation and unemployment can change a lot over time. From 10/2009 to 09/2019 the unemployment rate fell from 10% to 3.5%, the largest drop of any economic expansion since 1950. Yet, the inflation rate was roughly 1.7%. From 04/2020 to 05/2022, the unemployment rate fell from 14.7% to 3.6% and inflation soared above 9%. Research shows labor market policies that shift worker bargaining power can play a key role in explaining this shifting relationship. That view would suggest that an increase in the bargaining power of workers could be partly responsible for the inflation surge and for why inflation may be slow to come down.
Activity
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We analysed data on the labour market, company earnings, economic activity and inflation. This is what we found https://econ.st/3WV4BHA
We analysed data on the labour market, company earnings, economic activity and inflation. This is what we found https://econ.st/3WV4BHA
Liked by Orphe Divounguy
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Our book on "Applied Time Series for Macroeconomics" is now selling on Amazon. It shows how to formulate time series models, carry out forecasting…
Our book on "Applied Time Series for Macroeconomics" is now selling on Amazon. It shows how to formulate time series models, carry out forecasting…
Liked by Orphe Divounguy
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If you have survived this real estate market, you are an Olympian and you deserve a hug.
If you have survived this real estate market, you are an Olympian and you deserve a hug.
Liked by Orphe Divounguy
Experience & Education
Volunteer Experience
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Board Member
Housing Connector
- Present 2 years 1 month
Economic Empowerment
Working to lower barriers to housing
More activity by Orphe
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Our Principal and Senior Investment Strategist Mona Mahajan joined CNBC's Squawk on the Street this week to discuss her thoughts on the recent market…
Our Principal and Senior Investment Strategist Mona Mahajan joined CNBC's Squawk on the Street this week to discuss her thoughts on the recent market…
Liked by Orphe Divounguy
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Love the idea of challenging ourselves and our teams to rethink presentations. Below are some fresh alternatives to PowerPoint that can help us…
Love the idea of challenging ourselves and our teams to rethink presentations. Below are some fresh alternatives to PowerPoint that can help us…
Liked by Orphe Divounguy
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To all those who are saying that the jobs that are being created now are low paid ones... look at this chart. The share of management and…
To all those who are saying that the jobs that are being created now are low paid ones... look at this chart. The share of management and…
Liked by Orphe Divounguy
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Well, that settles it folks... Based on my analysis of the latest CPS microdata, the surge in July '24 temporary #layoffs - which accounted for…
Well, that settles it folks... Based on my analysis of the latest CPS microdata, the surge in July '24 temporary #layoffs - which accounted for…
Liked by Orphe Divounguy
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Come work with my colleague Nicole on the Zillow Government Relations team as we reshape real estate and make home a reality for more and more people!
Come work with my colleague Nicole on the Zillow Government Relations team as we reshape real estate and make home a reality for more and more people!
Liked by Orphe Divounguy
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While concerns about the US labor market are escalating, one positive sign is that businesses aren't really laying people off. A key question now for…
While concerns about the US labor market are escalating, one positive sign is that businesses aren't really laying people off. A key question now for…
Liked by Orphe Divounguy
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Notable disconnect between price and #earnings: -> US earnings are tracking 14% vs. 9% expected at the beginning of q2 reports; -> #Tech tracking…
Notable disconnect between price and #earnings: -> US earnings are tracking 14% vs. 9% expected at the beginning of q2 reports; -> #Tech tracking…
Liked by Orphe Divounguy
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The past ten days in the financial markets have been incredibly intense. I've written two blogs that summarize the key events from the perspective of…
The past ten days in the financial markets have been incredibly intense. I've written two blogs that summarize the key events from the perspective of…
Liked by Orphe Divounguy
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