When North Carolina State tipped off in the ACC tournament three weeks ago, the Wolfpack had a 17-14 record and an infinitesimal chance of making the NCAA tournament. But they ripped off five wins in five days to steal an automatic berth to March Madness. Then they went on a wild run even by the standards of an event known for insanity. Now they’re easily the most improbable Final Four team of the past decade.
What were the odds of the Wolfpack getting this far?
To find out, you can take the win probabilities for each of the past four games from the college-basketball statistical website kenpom.com, then multiply those percentages to quantify the rough likelihood of a Final Four run. N.C. State was a 1-in-88 long shot.
But even that number doesn’t accurately convey how unexpected this Final Four romp has been. That’s because the Wolfpack really had to survive and advance nine times.
The chance of that happening wasn’t 1 in 88.
It was more like 1 in 23,512.
To put that .004% probability in context, the National Weather Service says you’re more likely to get struck by lightning during your lifetime.
How can you not love underdogs & March Madness!
#statistics #marchmadness #underdogs
https://lnkd.in/eYYfjg3E
Fitness Specialist “Not Easily Broken Fitness”
5moI would love to come be apart of you alls events and connect with great people