Bankrate reposted this
LinkedIn Top Voice. Economic analyst, survey maven, and trusted resource for Bankrate, Red Ventures, and beyond. Former president of two associations of journalists, The National Press Club and SABEW.
What's the outlook for the U.S. economy over the next 12 months? The outcome is important for individuals, households, and businesses, as we look to achieve financial goals. That's what we asked many of the nation's top economists for our quarterly survey at Bankrate. I'm extremely grateful to the experts who've participated in this effort since I started it a decade ago. Here are some of the main takeaways (looking at the averages among respondents): -Unemployment will increase slightly to 4.3%. -Hiring will slow more considerably, averaging 115k jobs added a month. -Interest rates, including on mortgages, should decline. -The odds of a recession are about 1-in-3 or 32%. -They're divided between saying inflation should hit the Fed’s desired 2% level by the end of 2025, or by the end of 2025 or later. Of course, the actual outcomes could be much different. We must acknowledge the high uncertainty around the U.S. election, monetary policy (as governed by the Federal Reserve and other central banks), and geopolitical developments when two wars are raging. Kudos to my tremendous colleague Sarah Foster who does a terrific job taking complex subjects, and breaking them down for us to understand. Let's keep the conversation on this going! Feel free to share, and please let us know your thoughts on the outlook, including your career, finances, and the broader economy.
Terry Oswald
1mo
Thanks Mark. With all due respect, I feel we already are in a recession if you look at the real job numbers which were in the latest BLS jobs report for June. We have negative job growth for those already here. Almost all of the new jobs are driven from government spending. This is a recession that is silent. Sure, GDP may be growing. But the reality for individuals is we are in a contracting economy when considering wage growth, job losses, inflation and more...
Andrew Whatley
1mo
It's interesting to hear what the experts are saying. Thanks for sharing.
US NFP report which showed hiring slowed last month, coincides with a survey of manufacturing firms which showed activity weakened noticeably in July. Hurricane Beryl, however, hit Texas during the same week the government compiles its job data and could have held back job gains. The U.S. economy used to earlier flash reliable signals when it was in or near a recession. But those red lights have gone haywire since COVID struck and upended normal business activity. Over the past 2 or 3 years, they’ve signaled downturns that never arrived as the economy just kept rolling along. Worries about a recession are politicized as the Presidential election intensifies. Recession fears are overblown and all in all it certainly doesn't look like the U.S. economy is headed for a recession.