Anti-portfolio... 😅
We're familiar with the headline - "VC firm makes 50x return on its portfolio company!" We always hear about their impressive portfolio, full of unicorn companies they had the foresight to back early. But what about the companies that they overlooked? And why they did do so?
Bessemer Venture Partners has this page called "Anti-Portfolio". It's a candid list of massively successful companies that Bessemer decided not to invest in, despite having the opportunity. We are talking about the likes of Apple, Google, Tesla, Coinbase, PayPal!
While it's easy to focus on successes, Bessemer's candid catalogue of misses reveals important biases in investment decisions.
The Innovator's Dilemma...
Breakthrough ideas often seem underwhelming or even unappealing compared to the status quo way of operating. Bessemer missed the Coinbase opportunity. The round on offer was $500k on a standard SAFE at a $10m cap! Coinbase went public at ~$85.8bn – or just 8,580x the price Brian Armstrong had offered!
Anchoring bias...
It is the tendency to heavily rely on the first information received, failing to adequately adjust perspectives as new data emerges. This likely clouded their judgement on Airbnb after initially dismissing the "crazy" $40m valuation Brian Chesky quoted in January 2010. Revenues doubled every month till March and in April, Airbnb raised money at 1.5x the “crazy” price. 10 years later, Airbnb went public at $47bn.
Status quo bias...
Status quo bias is the tendency to resist change, even when it may bring benefits or improvements. Combined with Cushing's Law about ridiculing the unconventional, it appeared to have influenced them to pass on Zoom's Series B round in 2015. Video conferencing seemed too crowded with incumbents to see Zoom's transformative potential.
In all, Bessemer has its share of BIG misses. Hindsight bias may make these misses seem obvious now, but at the time of investing, a lot of other metrics and biases creep in. Also luck!
Bessemer deserves kudos for their transparency! What I love about this page is that Bessemer has cheekily made fun of how they missed these big names. At the end of the day, to err is human!
Have you come across any anti-portfolio names? Share in the comments below
#bias #venturecapital #investing #markets
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