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*Exit poll*🔥 An exit poll is a survey conducted immediately after voters have exited the polling stations. It is used to predict the outcome of an election before the official results are available. Here's how it works and some key points to consider: 🗣️How Exit Polls Work 💥Sampling Voters: Interviewers stand outside selected polling stations and ask a sample of voters whom they voted for. 💥Questionnaire: The survey may include additional questions about voters' demographics, motivations, and issues that influenced their votes. 💥Data Collection: The collected data is compiled and analyzed to estimate the vote share of each candidate or party. 💥Projection: Based on the sample data, statisticians make projections about the overall election outcome. 🗣️Key Points 💥Accuracy: Exit polls can be quite accurate but are not infallible. They are estimates and can be influenced by various factors, such as sampling errors or voters not being truthful about their choices. 💥Timing: Results of exit polls are typically released after polling stations close to avoid influencing voters who haven't yet cast their ballots. 💥Confidentiality: Participants' responses are anonymous to encourage honesty. 💥Regional Differences: Results can vary significantly by region, so national projections need to account for regional voting patterns. 🗣️Importance of Exit Polls 💥Media and Public: Provide an early indication of the election outcome. 💥Campaigns: Help political parties understand voter behavior and preferences. 💥Researchers: Offer insights into voter demographics and election trends. Controversies and Limitations 💥Misleading Results: Exit polls have occasionally predicted incorrect winners, leading to public confusion. 💥Sampling Bias: Inaccurate sampling methods can skew results. 💥Non-response Bias: If certain types of voters refuse to participate, it can affect accuracy. #exitpoll #2024election  #finance #knowledgesharing #newskills #learning #voters #vote #India #goldmansachs #sampling #reporting #media #work #hardwork #choice #result  

 What are the polls telling? The most recent poll by Fox Georgia News, cited as accurate by the Trump crowd, was conducted on July 16 and 17, two days after Trump's failed attempt. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote for president?" 47.2 % answered Trump, 44 % Biden, 4.8 % another candidate, and 4% said they were undecided. The sample has a 4.1% margin of error compared to the 3.2%  lead of Trump over Biden. The sample of 800 likely voters included 17 African Americans and 49 Hispanics, compared to 638 white voters. According to the 2020 Census Bureau, Georgia's African American population is 31%. Experts allege bad polling in this survey because you end up with 10x the weight of a single respondent. You cannot have an n=17 Black voter sample in an 800 LV poll in Georgia, whose electorate is usually 25%-30% Black! "This is awful data and just lousy science in general." The margin of error indicates the degree of uncertainty in the poll results. If a poll reports a margin of error of ±3%, the actual percentage of the population's response to a question could be three percentage points higher or lower than the reported results. For instance, if a candidate has 50% support in the poll, the actual support in the population could range from 47% to 53%.  To add more confusion and amusement to the poll, Donald Trump now claims that he does better with CNN polls and that the Fox News poll is a "fake poll." "What's up with FOX? I do better with CNN!" Nothing is new but more hilarious is that after demonizing CNN by his cult followers and Trump himself, he now claims higher numbers with the CNN poll. Fox News hosts Sandra Smith and John Roberts referenced a poll conducted by Bendixen & Amandi, a reputable company. The poll showed that Trump was defeating President Joe Biden by just one point, 43% to 42%, following the two candidates' first debate performance. When paired against other prominent Democrats who have been floated as a potential replacement for Biden, however, Trump trailed by a couple of percentage points. How will the assassination attempt against Trump on Saturday at his rally in Pennsylvania affect his polling lead? A national Morning Consult poll of 2,045 registered voters conducted Monday found Trump up by one point, a slight decline from a previous poll on July 12-14, when Trump was up by two points. Thirty-eight percent of voters said they blame Trump even though Trump would carry 77 electoral votes if he were to win the six states. 270 votes are needed to win the presidential election. In the 2020 election, Biden received 306 electoral votes vs. Trump's 232. What events will take place between now and November will affect future polls? Events such as the upcoming decision by Judge Merchen's new release of information on Trump's conspiracy of fake electors by the Michigan State attorney Jack Smith's appeal on Judge Cannon's decision will impact the polls. 

🇺🇸 Social media will have an effect on the outcome of the 2024 elections— the question is, how much? In our latest piece, we explore what political topics audiences care about most and how Trump and Biden stack up... check it out!

Here is a detailed analysis and summary based on the contents of the document: Summary of the Lok Saba Election 2024 Report Overview The report outlines the political landscape, key candidates, parties involved, and voter demographics for the 2024 Lok Saba elections. It includes a thorough examination of historical voting patterns, current trends, and potential outcomes based on various scenarios. Key Sections and Insights 1. **Political Landscape:**   - **Major Parties:** The report details the main political parties contesting in the election, including their past performance, current standing, and strategies for the upcoming election.   - **Key Candidates:** Profiles of significant candidates from each party, highlighting their political careers, achievements, and public perceptions. 2. **Voter Demographics:**   - **Age and Gender Distribution:** Analysis of the voter base segmented by age groups and gender, identifying key demographics that each party is targeting.   - **Urban vs. Rural:** Comparison of voting patterns and preferences in urban and rural areas, showing distinct differences in political leanings. 3. **Geographical Analysis:**   - **State-wise Performance:** Breakdown of each party's performance in different states, highlighting strongholds and battleground states.   - **Regional Issues:** Identification of region-specific issues that are influencing voter preferences and party strategies. 4. **Historical Trends:**   - **Past Election Results:** Overview of results from previous Lok Saba elections, identifying trends and shifts in voter behavior over time.   - **Trend Analysis:** Examination of how past trends might influence the 2024 election, considering factors like economic conditions, social movements, and political developments. 5. **Campaign Strategies:**   - **Party Manifestos:** Summary of key promises and policy proposals from each party's manifesto.   - **Advertising and Outreach:** Analysis of the campaign strategies being employed, including social media presence, rallies, and advertisements. 6. **Predicted Outcomes:**   - **Poll Data:** Presentation of recent poll data and its implications for the election outcome.   - **Scenarios:** Different scenarios based on various factors such as coalition formations, voter turnout, and swing states. Conclusion The report provides a detailed and nuanced view of the 2024 Lok Saba elections, emphasizing the complexity of the political landscape and the multitude of factors that will influence the final outcome. It serves as a valuable resource for understanding the dynamics at play and the potential direction of the election. LINK : https://lnkd.in/dp_Dtqjm APP : https://lnkd.in/d6ugrRCC #PowerBI #DataAnalysis #SQL #Visualisation #DataScience #Election2024 #BJP

Your Vote Absolutely Matters It matters in terms of our local, state and national leadership. According to the 2020 Census, only 67% of potential voters in the U.S. actually voted in the 2020 Presidential race. And this was the highest voter turnout of the 21st century. Of those people who actually voted, President Biden won by 51% vs. Donald Trump’s 47%. In other words, in 2020, only 34% of the voters (51% x 67% = 34%) elected the current President. Only 31% voted for the former. How can that be when you think that people in many other countries are fighting and dying for the right to vote? According to the U.S. Census Bureau, older, more educated and people with higher incomes voted at a higher rate than younger, less educated and those with lower incomes. It matters in terms of our policies. Not surprisingly, many of our local, state and national policies and budget priorities reflect our voting demographics: Age: 65-74 years old -76% 18 - 24 years old - 51% Income: $30,000-$40,000 - 63% $100,000 - $150,000 - 81% Sadly, in the 2020 election a third of us chose not to fill out a ballot. While it is tempting to blame politicians for not doing their job, we also need to do our job. We all need to become informed and engaged voters. Please don't throw up your hands in frustration or cynicism...pay attention, get involved and vote. If you’re able to name the players on your favorite sports team or actors in your favorite movies then you’ll also be able to find and name the people who sit on your city and county boards, your state and federal representatives and senators. And like those in sports, if you're paying attention you'll be able to tell the qualified elected officials & candidates from the unqualified ones. Also, be aware that many people who run for a lower office, like water/sewer commissioner or school board, end up in higher office. So also be an informed voter for all the offices up for election. Here are two resources that will help you find them: - League of Women Voters “Find Your Elected Officials” https://lnkd.in/eBBGppJd - Your local public library resource folks Here are my 10 recommendations for what to look for in a candidate: 1. What is their employment, volunteer, education history? 2. If already in office, are their colleagues - from both parties or political persuasions supporting them? 3. Who else is supporting them - is it a good mix of people/businesses/other elected officials? 4. What are their accomplishments as a volunteer or in elected office? 5. How well and how much do they interact with all constituents? 6. Will they meet with you if asked? 7. What are their priorities, goals and concerns? 8. Are they willing to doorbell & attend community meetings? 9. Are they willing to come to the table with an open mind, listen to constituents, staff and colleagues before taking a position? 10. Most important...Why are they running for office? See less

DONALD TRUMP TO MINORITIES AND YOUNG PEOPLE - “WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?” Polls have consistently suggested Biden—and the Democratic Party as a whole—have been losing support among key demographics, including Black, Latino and younger voters, which largely backed the party in the past. A May NPR/PBS/Marist survey found voters under 45 prefer Biden over Trump by just four points and Biden leads among Gen Z/millennials by six points in a head-to-head matchup, but the vote swings in Trump’s favor among the two groups (by six points among Gen Z/Millennials and eight among voters under 45) with third-party candidates in the mix. The April Times/Siena/Inquirer poll also found Biden is tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in six battleground states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada) and trailing him by four points in those states among 18- to 29-year-olds, two groups which voted for Biden with more than 60% support in 2020, according to the Times. Biden also appears to be losing support in Democratic strongholds, such as New York, where he’s up nine points over Trump, according to a May Siena College survey, after beating Trump there by 23 points in 2020. - Forbes Maybe they would come back. Or maybe not. It’s difficult when people have high expectations. Even Barack Obama, who worked hard to be President for all the people, was accused of not doing enough for blacks. But would minorities and young people really be better of with Donald Trump? What have they got to lose? A lot.

AAOC's Voter Registration Initiative: Why it Matters to the Multi-Family Industry   Since the start of 2023 we have been reaching out membership wide to ask that you communicate with your tenants about voter registration. Our ask has been quite simple and consistent -   Provide new residents with information about updating their voter registration  Encourage existing residents to make sure their voter registration is current  Remind residents that are moving out to make sure they change their registration  This is a major initiative of AAOC’s as we move forward. Having current and up to date voter rolls is essential to a representative democracy – which is the core of our reasoning behind this effort. However, there are many other considerations behind this effort, and we want you to better understand the reasoning behind this initiative.  CHANGING FACE OF CALIFORNIA VOTERS  Some of you will remember the mantra that James Carville repeated throughout the Clinton Administration - “Demographics are Destiny.” The quote predates the Clinton Administration by over 150 years originally quipped by French philosopher Auguste Comte. Despite its age, the quote has repeatedly proven to be an accurate predicter of election outcomes. To Read More, Please Visit - https://lnkd.in/gUeAuB3B

Disparate Racial Impacts of Shelby County v. Holder on Voter Turnout - pDF: https://lnkd.in/gcpiJzrq In Shelby County v. Holder (2013), the Supreme Court struck down a core provision of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) that enabled federal electoral oversight in select jurisdictions. We study whether this decision disproportionately impacted ballot access for Black and Hispanic registered voters. We use a rich dataset on voter behavior for the universe of registered voters combined with Census block-level socio demographic attributes to document a decrease in turnout for Black, relative to white, individuals. These effects are concentrated in counties with larger Black and Hispanic populations, consistent with strategic targeting of voter suppression. This paper examines the differential impacts of the 2013 Shelby v. Holder decision, which invalidated the preclearance provision in the Voting Rights Act, on turnout across racial and ethnic groups. We aim to complement recent work (e.g., Komisarchik and White (2021)) – which documents mechanisms which might impact turnout – by drawing on a rich dataset that is well suited to identifying these differential changes. Our main analysis measures changes in turnout amongst registered voters at the Census Block level. Our estimates suggest that turnout declines by roughly one percentage point in Census blocks with a high share of Black residents relative to blocks with zero Black population. There is significant heterogeneity in our results, with a decline in turnout of two percentage points in Census blocks with a larger Black population in counties with larger Black and Hispanic populations. Such heterogeneity is consistent with the notion that voter suppression is costly to implement and more likely to be employed where the targeted group is larger in number and more politically powerful (Epperly et al., 2020). What specific policy changes lead to the changes in turnout that we observe? As already noted, there is existing evidence of increased implementation of Voter ID laws and voter roll purges in previously covered jurisdictions (Komisarchik & White, 2021). “Voting changes at the local level, such as moving a polling place or switching from district-based to at-large voting, have garnered less attention, but are no less problematic. In fact, more than 85% of preclearance work previously done under Section 5 was at the local level.” In short, we expect that the turnout changes we observe are the result of the accumulation of a variety of state and local actions, many of which are difficult to observe in data, and that there is unlikely to be single primary driver. Thus, while we cannot speak to specific drivers of changes in turnout, we view our paper as providing evidence on the impacts of the accumulation of suppression tactics that have occurred in the absence of Federal oversight.

Let’s run the clock back… ⏰⏳ In 2022, VPC commissioned a team of social science researchers to measure the gaps and opportunities in voter turnout and registration of the New American Majority (NAM) - people of color, young people, and unmarried women. For the sake of this research, we honed in on two populations within the New American Majority, people of color and young people. We asked these researchers to: ➡️ Locate where NAM voting eligible populations are largest, and where they are growing most.  ➡️ Provide estimates of voter turnout and gaps compared to non-NAM groups.  ➡️ Highlight registration opportunities for the NAM. We are revisiting this research today to remind people what we learned, and so you can bring these findings into your work in 2024. 💪🗳 We learned so much about the NAM from this research and discovered that, unfortunately, turnout gaps between NAM and non-NAM populations were larger than even we had previously thought. This means that our work, and the work of other third-party organizations, is more important than ever. Here are some of our findings: 🔹The New American Majority make up over half the citizen voting-age population in 39 states and D.C., and no less than 40% in the rest. 🔹While NAM turnout has increased in recent elections, sometimes dramatically, generally non-NAM turnout has increased as much or more in recent elections. 🔹 A promising exception to these voting turnout trends is Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (AAPI) and young people’s turnout, which has increased markedly over the past few elections, increasing their representation in the electorate. 🔹 Five states–Alaska, Hawaii, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas– show especially high opportunity on all dimensions of NAM turnout and registration efforts, given sizable NAM population share and large gaps in turnout and registration. Democracy works best when those who participate reflect the population as a whole.  As this work underscores, the New American Majority are underrepresented in the share of Americans who cast ballots but make up the strong majority of Americans.  However, we also found multiple trends that made us optimistic and gave us opportunities to bridge the gaps in representation in 2024 and beyond. ✨ Read our full report here: https://lnkd.in/grDrpaPs ✨ STAY TUNED as we share more of our segmentation research and talk about the new and innovative ways we are reaching out to, and bringing democracy to the doorstep of the New American Majority. Let us know what you think about these findings in the comments ⤵️ -Tom Lopach, President and CEO of the Voter Participation Center #research #study #election #elections #voting #votingrights #vote #gotv #civicengagement #voter #voterrights #votersuppression #yourvote #yourvotematters #yourvotecounts #voterparticipation #voterparticipationcenter #votebymail

One of the more interesting developments in this polling season is more pollsters, strategists, and journalists are acknowledging that the polls are neither "good" nor "bad" at predicting the horse race — but they're still instrumental in telling us about what's going on with the electorate. There's some thinking to be done about how we link voters' changing demographics, behavior, and mindsets with the performance of any campaign. Still, this conversation with Aaron Zitner of The Wall Street Journal is a great start to understanding why reporting the polls is important, and what it can teach us about ourselves and the nation. https://lnkd.in/dpgtDN8S (And thanks to Carla Zanoni for introducing us!!)