Medora Lee’s Post

The Real Story Behind the Numbers As we navigate the intricacies of the economy, it's vital to peel back the layers of data and understand the real impact on our lives. Recently, an article shed light on the latest US jobs report and its implications for our economic landscape. While the creation of 175,000 jobs in April is certainly a positive sign, it's crucial to recognize the broader context. The accompanying rise in inflation is leaving many hardworking Americans feeling the pinch, with everyday expenses like groceries and rent becoming increasingly burdensome. These aren't just numbers on a page; they're real challenges that affect our families, our communities, and our future. Beyond the political rhetoric and economic jargon, there's a human story here. It's about the single parent struggling to make ends meet, the recent graduate facing mounting student loan debt, and the small business owner navigating uncertain waters. #Inflation #EconomicAwareness #Jobs

Sign up to receive our monthly economic reviews and more at: https://lnkd.in/evuzePFd A survey suggests recession is already over. Official statistics released last month showed the UK economy fell into recession during the second half of last year, although more recent survey data does suggest the recession could already be over High interest rates ‘under review’. Last month, the Bank of England once again kept interest rates at a 16-year high, although policymakers did signal they were open to the possibility of lowering rates for the first time since the pandemic. Wage growth slows again. Earnings statistics published last month showed that nominal pay is now rising at the weakest pace for more than a year with survey data suggesting this decline looks set to continue. Retail sales rebound in January. The latest batch of retail sales statistics suggest consumers have recovered some of their appetite for spending, with much stronger than expected growth in sales volumes recorded at the start of the new year.

Two recent data releases increase the chance of an interest rate hike at the next Federal Reserve meeting.   First, employment data came in this morning much stronger than anticipated. Nonfarm payrolls increased nearly 340k compared to last month, about twice the median estimate. More jobs means people have more money to spend, which creates upward pressure on inflation.   Second, last week the Bureau of Economic Analysis published revised savings rate data on the years from 2017-2022. They found that, pre-pandemic, people saved less than previously estimated, and post-pandemic people saved more than previously estimated. The upshot of this is that the stock of pandemic-era excess savings may be higher than previously thought. While this excess stock is still in the process of being depleting, if it is higher than previously thought, this could buoy consumer spending power for additional time. See: https://lnkd.in/gSSTqAkR   https://lnkd.in/gAVUvNt4 BEA comprehensive update: https://lnkd.in/gbwCsqfc

Despite headwinds, the U.S. could experience structural changes in the labor market, residential real estate, and inflation as the post-pandemic economy progresses into the New Year. As markets adjust to a new regime, investors should recognize the economy is becoming less interest rate sensitive and they should focus on leading indicators such as the ratio of part-time workers and not on lagging metrics such as the headline growth stats mostly cited in the media. #Householder Group #Financial Planning #Market Commentary

https://lnkd.in/epPugkP6 A way to say that the rich are gouging the middle income and the poor. The issue is not that the poor can't be satisfied, it's that the rich can't be satisfied. Having more money than you can spend in a lifetime, they still want more wealth to compete with their fellow billionaires who also have more wealth than they could ever spend. Meanwhile, we are seeing a rise in global homeless families, people are being priced out of housing, global violent crime is rising, and global gun violence is at epidemic portions. So while the wealthy can afford to be isolated from the day to day challenges, overtime it will knock on their family members doors who are not wealthy. This is called diminishing returns and the folly of extreme wealth....

Data unveiled by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) today shows regular pay rose by 7.8% between April and June - the most substantial annual increase since comparable records began in 2001. Meanwhile inflation levels remain relatively high at 7.9%, the figures show, and unemployment has risen slightly to 4.2%. Darren Morgan, the ONS's Director of Economic Statistics, said that the evidence suggests a gradual recovery in people's actual pay, emphasising that basic pay growth is currently at its swiftest pace since existing records commenced. Despite these encouraging indicators, real pay growth continues to exhibit a modest decrease. The robust wage growth could pave the way for the Bank of England to consider raising interest rates in September, elevating them from the present rate of 5.25%. #pay #inflation #economy #hrsupport

Real News Now from Ramirez Financial Services LLC aka Ralph Roy Ramirez: Just to maintain the same standard of living that Americans had at the beginning of President Joe Biden’s term, households have to spend an additional $11,434 per year, according to CBS News. THIS IS EXACTLY HOW MUCH BIDEN’S INFLATION HAS COST AVERAGE AMERICANS Since January 2021, when Biden first took office, inflation has risen 17%, far outpacing the 2% per year that the Federal Reserve aims for, while average hourly wages have only increased 13.6%, according to the Congressional Joint Economic Committee’s (JEC) state inflation tracker. As a result, more Americans reported that they are struggling financially than they did before the COVID-19 pandemic as persistent inflation continues to take its toll, according to CBS News.

According to the latest Beige Book, economic activity in the Twelfth District softened slightly. Labor market tightness eased moderately, and employment levels remained generally steady. For more on prices, real estate, and other economic conditions, visit: https://sffed.us/3uFG7GE #BeigeBook #Labor #Employment #Prices #RealEstate

New data just released by the Bureau of Labor Stats indicate that employment numbers are starting to rise. American job openings went down to 8.8 million still over the pre-pandemic total of 7.3 million. The economic slowdown has finally materialize and job growth has slowed down by 22 percent. Employers are starting to layoff employees, cut salaries and even firing employees. It appears that the Federal Reserve is not either paying attention of what is going on or simply doesn’t care. The unemployment rate unexpectedly went up to 3.8 in August although the real unemployment rate is above 7.1 percent. Similar to real inflation which is not 3.3 as being reported it’s actually above 5 percent. Now it appears that interest rates for homes might not start to come down until the 3rd Quarter of next year. This will kill the housing market for sometime. So there you have it. And the Feds are still looking into raising interest rates once again. Hmm..Back in 2008 unemployment was 5% and within a year it went up to 9%. Therefore, if we use historical data we can see where we are headed to. A recession. The problem that I have with Americans is how quickly we forget history. Now going back to the Feds we would hope that bad and negative economic news would provide a signal for the Feds to pivot on increasing interest rates. And don’t let the stock market fool you either. Even Nexflex is taking a hit thier stock has lost 10 percent last month of its value. Eviction notices are starting to go up, and over 60% of Americans are living pay check to pay check and credit card debt is at an all time high. Once again it appears that the Feds are simply out of touch. It’s time to help the American people and the time is now. Goodnight.

A lot of American families are complaining about the economy. This is puzzling to lots of folks since the unemployment rate is quite low and employee compensation is growing at a good clip - 5.6 percent over the past 12 months, and 5.7 percent (at an annual rate) over the past 48 months. That growth is a lot faster than what we experienced between 2009 and 2019, when comp grew at a sluggish 4.1 percent annual rate (blue line below). The source of frustration, I think, is on the spending side. Household spending (personal outlays) have grown at a 6.8 percent average annual rate over the past 48 months (red line), more than a percentage point faster than compensation growth. We could spend more than we earned for a few years (red line above blue line) because of generous - by American standards - unemployment benefits during the lockdowns, "stimmy" checks, and expanded child tax credits. Those were great policies, but with those benefits exhausted, we need to bring spending back down in line with compensation. It was inevitable that this would happen. But I don't know too many folks that like to slow down their spending, do you ? Especially if businesses keep raising prices, even as the prices of many things we want and need are already high to begin with. I think it makes some sense - from an economic standpoint - that lots of Americans are feeling a bit grumpy right now.