QueensGiant LLC’s Post

I love long term forecasts. The Fed can’t tell us when they will reduce rates this year nor can they tell us if they will raise rates. Projecting the Fed funds rate over 10 years appears to be a bit problematic. When Powell is asked the question about long term rates, he will never wager an opinion. Today’s 5.4 Fed Funds rate is way too high based upon all present data.

That sounds like a magic number, but it is basically driven from a stable inflation rate at about 2% plus a small spread to make a net positive real return. I hope we can accomplish this, it requires a functioning relatively stable economy.

Thanks for sharing - 0% fed rate has damaged the market to some extent, unsustainable business models for example. Rates at more normal levels should support a healthier market.

The idea of 3-3.5% as a broader stabilized rate is probably bang on. The fed keeping things so low for so long definitely over stimulated the economy as a whole and the return to normalcy is welcomed by most.

Smartest guy in the room.

This is amazing.

Howard thank you for sharing your outlook

I thoroughly enjoy listening to “The Memo” by Howard Marks. Always several great takeaways. Thank you!