U.S. News & World Report’s Post

Interesting observations are emerging from the political landscape in the United States. Despite a nationwide dip in their backing from nonwhite supporters, the Democrats appear to be demonstrating admirable resilience within the battleground states. Implications of the current electoral tightrope: • Democrat resilience in battleground states hints at a more complex demographic plurality and presents a fascinating political phenomenon. • Seeing that the appeal of the Democrats persists even amid sizable demographic headwinds reiterates that politics is a multifaceted realm far removed from single-factor analysis. Cue to new issues: • The shifting political dynamics could be due to the rise of new issues, catalyzing a paradigm shift in voting patterns. • The array demonstrates an evolving priorities spectrum among voters. • Long-lasting implications hover. They could potentially reimagine the political landscape. Predictions for the future: • Such an adaptive political landscape might suggest that parties could benefit from focusing on the issues closest to the evolving needs and values of the voters. • This resilience could reshape how future campaigns are strategized, with a renewed focus on issue-oriented politics. To summarize, • The resilience of the Democrats in battleground states despite losing nonwhite support nationwide adds a new layer to the understanding of the politics of representation. • The emergence of new issues could become a significant determinant for electoral patronage, paving the way for a new breed of issue-oriented politics. • The opportunity lies in harnessing this shift and employing strategy adjustments to meet changing voters' needs and priorities. #politics #demographics #changingdynamics #votingpatterns

Just a poll - do with it what you like. But it may explain the insane focus on Orange Man Bad instead of policies. This poll conducted by Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies/NBC News - so no right wing bias here. But is it an outlier? What do other polls (none from right wing outlets) say: - NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist: A majority of independent voters believe Biden is a greater threat to democracy than Trump. - ABC News/Ipsos: Trump is in a dead heat with Biden among suburban women. - USA Today/Suffolk University: Among Hispanics, Trump leads Biden by five points (39-34 percent). - Wall Street Journal: 30 percent of black men and 11 percent of black women intend to vote for Trump. - New York Times: Trump and Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds. What it suggests is that people are starting to focus on policies, not party. That is a good thing for America - who could disagree with that? If you like things the way they are then by all means vote for politicians that support current policies, that is what freedom is all about. Stay strong, stay free

The generational divide of voter intent. With this graph, we combined overlaid three datasets to see where the ages of party alignment intersect. The thick line is party support by age at the 2022 federal election. It's not surprising that conservative voters skew older, (the grey line) as they have more assets to conserve. The age group most likely to vote conservative are in their early 80s and under. This generation born before the end of WW2, and then includes the 'baby boomers' born immediately after the war. That does not, of course, mean that everyone 80 and under votes for either the Liberals or Nationals, it's just the strongest cohort of support. Labor support is strongest in those aged 50 and under. This is the older group of 'Gen X'. Greens support is strongest in the 25 and under group. More people are adding to that younger cohort, and, naturally, more people are leaving us from the older cohort. We sourced the data from here: ANU https://lnkd.in/gezxfrMZ)

In case you were wondering. "Although the majority of Black voters across education levels are Democrats, there has been a slight decrease in affiliation with the Democratic Party among those with college degrees in recent years. While 93% of Black voters with college degrees identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party in 2012, that number had decreased to 85% in 2020 and then 79% in 2023.  Overall, older voters have tended to be more Republican than younger voters in recent decades, but this is not true for Black voters. While 7% of Black voters 50 and older currently identify as or lean Republican, 17% of Black voters under 50 are aligned with the Republican Party. This is not new, as younger Black voters have tended to be more Republican than older Black voters over the last 25 years. "Black voters prefer Biden in 2024 election, but some would replace both candidates"

With the #RNC kicking off, here are some facts about Republicans from Pew Research Center: - 79% of Republican voters are White, though this is down somewhat from 93% nearly two decades ago - 64% of Republican voters do not have a four-year college degree -- modestly higher than the share among all U.S. voters (60%) - 51% of Republican voters are White adults without a college degree, making them the single largest bloc within the party - Just 8% of Republican voters are under 30. (For comparison, 16% of Democratic voters are under 30) - 81% of Republican voters identify with a Christian denomination, compared with 67% of all registered voters More here: https://lnkd.in/eQrRiWik #research #data #republicans #survey

Interesting new look from Pew Research Center about Black voters: - Black voters broadly support Biden and are highly critical of Trump -- but still about half of Black voters say they would replace both Biden and Trump with different candidates if they had the ability to decide (similar to the share of all voters who say this). - Older voters tend to be more Republican than younger voters, but this is not true for Black voters. While 7% of Black voters 50 and older currently identify as or lean Republican, 17% of Black voters under 50 are aligned with the Republican Party. - For Americans overall, the economy (73%) sits at the top of the list of policy priorities for the president and Congress in 2024. However, for Black Americans, improving the education system (79%) and ensuring Social Security is financially sound (74%) are just as important as strengthening the economy (76%). More here: https://lnkd.in/ejDA2aF3 #survey #data #research #election

Last week, Harvard’s IOP Poll of 18-29 year olds was released and it is ringing alarm bells around youth and democracy: - Relative to this point in the 2020 presidential election cycle, the number of young Americans between 18- and- 29 years old who “definitely” plan on voting for president has decreased from 57% to 49%. - The decline in voting intention is most pronounced among younger Black Americans and Hispanic Americans Active high school civic education is linked to a higher propensity for voting in the poll. Two-thirds (67%) of young Americans who plan to “definitely vote” in the 2024 general election say that their high school education taught and prepared them to understand the “importance of my vote,” compared to 47% of less committed voters who say the same. But overall, most young Americans do not believe that their high school education taught and prepared them to understand practical aspects of voting and civic education. If we care about a thriving democracy, we have to care about how each generation is participating in it. Low voter engagement amongst youth wouldn't just be bad news in 2024, it would exacerbate an existing crisis of trust. We have some serious work to do.

Fresh data from our latest Publitics InfluenceIQ survey. Young Americans are generally casually engaged with politics and political content. Reaching them credibly in 2024 will be a challenge. https://lnkd.in/etFRDg3Z

46% for 45 and 45% for 46. "The president’s popularity has ticked up slightly, though voters still view Donald J. Trump more favorably and have dour views of the economy." - - Shane Goldmacher The New York Times Dive into the stats here: https://lnkd.in/eeXKrGuK "Here are the key things to know about how this Times/Siena poll was conducted:" "We spoke with 1,059 registered voters from April 7 to 11, 2024." "Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. More than 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll." "Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, we placed nearly 127,000 calls to more than 93,000 voters." "To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample on the methodology page, under 'Composition of the Sample.' ” "The poll’s margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large." The New York Times Siena College poll #polls #bidenomics #inflation #economy #border #trump #biden

📢 Survey Spotlight: The Voting Age Debate. In our recent survey, we asked a crucial question: "Should the legal voting age be dropped to 16 years old?" The results are in, and it's quite the conversation starter! 🤔 👥 81% STRONGLY DISAGREE that the voting age should be lowered. What are your thoughts on this? Do you agree or disagree? We want to hear YOUR voice! Take our survey and let us know where you stand on this important issue. Your opinion matters. 🗣️ Click the link below to share your perspective: https://lnkd.in/d4Ph-_nG #YourVoiceMatters #SurveyResults #VotingAgeDebate #DontBlameMe