Young voters are one crucial segment of the electorate for President Biden to convince – and survey results released by U.S. News and Generation Lab this week indicate the 81-year-old president has some work to do. https://lnkd.in/efUp38Y7
U.S. News & World Report’s Post
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Statistically Impossible American Research Group Poll has no reliability or validity. Manchester Based firm has some glaring errors. Undecided at 12% ...NH FITN Undecided has been at 1-2% for the last six months ..it would be statistically impossible for such a sudden transversal. Trump in the high-mid forty percent range for six months The demographics of his base are very monolithic ...the psychological and sociological mindset here does not suddenly change to 33% from a UMass Lowell # of 52% taken this week.......this is also beyond impossible RCP has Trump at 46% - Haley 24% https://lnkd.in/eBnFiqHz This is the reality of the facts on the ground The Establishment pushing this narrative are at risk of losing their own creditability .....which to those of us skilled in politics here .....is difficult to recover Be Careful..as you may harm your candidate more than help her https://lnkd.in/etEZCdn6
Trump rails after poll shows Haley within 4 points in New Hampshire
msn.com
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Dive into the latest insights on Hispanic voters in the U.S.! 🗳️📊 FIU's Annual Hispanic Public Opinion Survey reveals shifting trends, including eroding party affiliations and unenthusiastic support for 2024 presidential candidates. Explore the findings here: https://ow.ly/ILWz50Qixsx
FIU poll reveals Hispanic vote in the United States is up for grabs in next presidential election
news.fiu.edu
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Interesting observations are emerging from the political landscape in the United States. Despite a nationwide dip in their backing from nonwhite supporters, the Democrats appear to be demonstrating admirable resilience within the battleground states. Implications of the current electoral tightrope: • Democrat resilience in battleground states hints at a more complex demographic plurality and presents a fascinating political phenomenon. • Seeing that the appeal of the Democrats persists even amid sizable demographic headwinds reiterates that politics is a multifaceted realm far removed from single-factor analysis. Cue to new issues: • The shifting political dynamics could be due to the rise of new issues, catalyzing a paradigm shift in voting patterns. • The array demonstrates an evolving priorities spectrum among voters. • Long-lasting implications hover. They could potentially reimagine the political landscape. Predictions for the future: • Such an adaptive political landscape might suggest that parties could benefit from focusing on the issues closest to the evolving needs and values of the voters. • This resilience could reshape how future campaigns are strategized, with a renewed focus on issue-oriented politics. To summarize, • The resilience of the Democrats in battleground states despite losing nonwhite support nationwide adds a new layer to the understanding of the politics of representation. • The emergence of new issues could become a significant determinant for electoral patronage, paving the way for a new breed of issue-oriented politics. • The opportunity lies in harnessing this shift and employing strategy adjustments to meet changing voters' needs and priorities. #politics #demographics #changingdynamics #votingpatterns
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🍎Huh. I was doing some research yesterday, and now it is... 🤓Fun Fact Time: 🔵Did you know that there are 47.9M registered #Democratic voters in the 32 states that track party affiliations... ✖️versus 🔴36.4M registered #Republican voters? That's an 11.5M voter difference. It's true! 🤯When you compare #GOP w/ Ds, #Independents and Other Party, there is a 51.5M difference! 🗳️The registered #GOP voter makes up 14.7% of these 32 states that track voter registrations. Suddenly, things make a lot of more sense to me. Hopefully this data helps you too. 🤼♂️Also, as of 2020, there are ~117 million white men in the U.S. in a total population of 331.9 million. That's roughly 35.25% of the U.S. population. White men make up only 10% of the world's population. 🤔Fascinating. #America #USPolitics #statistics #research #researchmatters
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Exploring the complexities of polling young voters in America In a recent Financial Times article, John Burn-Murdoch uncovers why polls might be getting it wrong when it comes to America’s under-30 electorate. From a surprising 50-point discrepancy in voter preference to the challenges of sample representation, this article delves into why not all data points are created equal—and how they can mislead. Read the article, what are your thoughts on improving the accuracy of youth polling? #USElections2024 #AmericanPolitics #FinancialTimes
The problem with polling America’s young voters
ft.com
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31M👀views.Advocating for PEACE by Connecting the dots | Passionate about driving systemic change for a peaceful regenerative future #Mission2030 We must unite for #Peace 🙏☮️
🚨🇺🇸 Young Americans correctly recognize that the US is a "dying empire led by bad people" In the US, "Young voters overwhelmingly believe that almost all politicians are corrupt and that the country will end up worse off than when they were born" Young voters overwhelmingly believe that almost all politicians are corrupt and that the country will end up worse off than when they were born, according to new polling from Democratic firm Blueprint obtained exclusively by Semafor. The sour mood points to potential trouble for Joe Biden, who is struggling with Gen Z and younger Millennials in polls compared with 2020, and needs to convince them he can be relied on to improve their lives. As part of the online poll of 943 18-30-year-old registered voters, Blueprint asked participants to respond to a series of questions about the American political system: 49% agreed to some extent that elections in the country don’t represent people like them; 51% agreed to some extent that the political system in the US “doesn’t work for people like me;” and 64% backed the statement that “America is in decline.” A whopping 65% agreed either strongly or somewhat that “nearly all politicians are corrupt, and make money from their political power” — only 7% disagreed.
‘A dying empire led by bad people’: Poll finds young voters despairing over US politics | Semafor
semafor.com
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🍎 The fruits of several months of work are finally out. We have been working with our partners Onward on a granular, cross-sectional analysis of the Conservative Party's once-in-a-century defeat. We have surveyed upwards of 60,000+ respondents across the UK, probing the drivers of vote behaviour and switching across every demographic and political group. Key takeaways include: 🦀 The Conservatives suffered a catastrophic defeat with losses in every direction, thanks to a four-way pincer movement on age, income, geography and Brexit preference. 👑 A set of "super-demographics" — voters who might be some or all of the markers of being over 65, Brexit-supporting, homeowners, living outside of cities and C2 — explain a large cohort of voters who overwhelmingly backed the Conservatives in 2019 but defected in 2024. 🏗 In rebuilding, the Conservatives should focus first on winning back some proportion of Reform and Liberal Democrats supporters simultaneously. These defectors are the most likely to vote Conservative, dislike Keir Starmer, and are closer in economic beliefs and demographically to remaining Conservative voters. 👇 You can check out the summary report below. 👀 The full report will be out in the next few weeks. #report #research #UKGE2024
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The working class is a crucial demographic across the country & many of these voters feel that the last 40 years haven't been kind to them. Learn more about the Democratic party’s key challenges in a recent poll from PPI & YouGov on working-class America: https://lnkd.in/enAmZghX
Winning Back Working America: A PPI/YouGov Survey of Working-Class Attitudes - Progressive Policy Institute
progressivepolicy.org
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46% for 45 and 45% for 46. "The president’s popularity has ticked up slightly, though voters still view Donald J. Trump more favorably and have dour views of the economy." - - Shane Goldmacher The New York Times Dive into the stats here: https://lnkd.in/eeXKrGuK "Here are the key things to know about how this Times/Siena poll was conducted:" "We spoke with 1,059 registered voters from April 7 to 11, 2024." "Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. More than 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll." "Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, we placed nearly 127,000 calls to more than 93,000 voters." "To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample on the methodology page, under 'Composition of the Sample.' ” "The poll’s margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large." The New York Times Siena College poll #polls #bidenomics #inflation #economy #border #trump #biden
Biden Shrinks Trump’s Edge in Latest Times/Siena Poll
https://www.nytimes.com
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Election eve is upon us, the theorists, trackers and pollsters are all set …. but are young people? As part of Youth Employment UK's 2024 Youth Voice Census dataset, we asked young people aged 18 - 30 if they were likely to vote in the next election, we also asked if they thought their vote mattered. 🗳 63% of young people were likely or very likely to vote 🗳 Just over 20% (1 in 5) of young people are unlikely to vote. 🗳 Just over a quarter (26%) of young people think their vote doesn't matter. When we unpack the data a little more we can see that there are disparities in the votes: 🔸 Young women are more likely to vote than young men by around 12ppts 🔹 41% of Black, African, Black British or Caribbean respondents were unlikely or very unlikely to vote compared to their white and Asian peers who were half as likely to respond this way 🔸 A third of 18 - 21 year-olds are unlikely or very unlikely to vote, from 21 onwards over half of young people are likely to vote, from 23 onwards 4 in 5 of young people are likely to vote (80%) The years since the pandemic have felt frantic for young people, we have asked them to dig deep and bear with the disruption since 2020. This data set closed in mid-June so we will soon see if the last few weeks of debates, media coverage and terrible TikToks have people running to the polling stations or running from politics and news altogether….
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