Two new ads on the Arizona airwaves are offering a preview of how Republicans plan to tie Democrats further down the ballot to President Joe Biden following last month’s disastrous debate performance.
“Arizonans witnessed Joe Biden incoherently try to defend his failed policies that allowed in millions of illegal immigrants, forced Arizonans to pay higher grocery and gas prices and made housing unaffordable,” a narrator says in a new TV ad from Senate Republicans’ campaign arm and Republican Kari Lake, as footage of the debate plays on screen. Lake and the National Republican Senatorial Committee launched a similar spot on Thursday.
The ads appear to be some of the first on TV to directly reference the debate, where Biden struggled at times to finish thoughts and provide coherent answers. After that brief reference, the ad goes on to stress Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego’s support for Biden’s policies.
Republicans had already been launching attacks against Democrats in House and Senate races that tied them to Biden prior to the debate, focusing on largely issues such as immigration and inflation. And that’s still the plan.
“In most of these Senate battleground states, Joe Biden is very unpopular. The Senate Democratic incumbents have voted with Joe Biden 95% of the time,” NRSC Chairman Steve Daines, R-Mont., told NBC News when asked this week how the debate will affect the GOP's strategy to tie Democrats to the president.
“So it’s difficult for these Democrats to defend that record with Joe Biden. And they’re going to have to either sink or swim with Biden’s record,” Daines later added, noting that Senate races have mirrored the presidential ballot in all but one state in the last two presidential election cycles.
In Arizona, Gallego's campaign shrugged off the ads from Lake and the NRSC. "Kari Lake is a power-hungry opportunist who will do or say anything to get power, including ban abortion without exceptions for rape or incest," Gallego spokesperson Hannah Goss said in a statement. "She is too extreme for Arizona, which is why Arizonans are going to reject her yet again."
Some GOP strategists did say that Biden’s debate performance has made it more likely that Republicans would target Democrats specifically on the president’s mental acuity, arguing that the debate reinforced voters’ longstanding concerns about Biden’s age.
After the debate, GOP operatives scoured White House visitor logs to see which vulnerable House and Senate Democrats had met directly with the president. Those meetings fueled a new round of digital ads from House Republicans’ campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee. The spots, targeting 10 Democrats, declare that Biden “lacks the mental fitness for office” and accuse Democrats of covering up “the scandal of a century.”
This week, a super PAC supporting Montana Republican Tim Sheehy — More Jobs, Less Government — launched a 15-second TV ad featuring footage of Democratic Sen. Jon Tester saying Biden “is absolutely, 100% with it.”
But spots focused mainly on Biden’s fitness for office have not yet hit the TV airwaves. Since the debate, Republicans have continued to tie Democrats to Biden on policy.
Wisconsin Republican Eric Hovde launched a new TV ad Friday featuring footage of Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin saying Biden’s presidency has been “one of the most successful administrations in generations.”
Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno launched a new digital ad featuring footage of Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown saying Biden’s politics are “not much different than mine.”
The NRSC and Sheehy also launched a new TV ad criticizing Biden and Tester on inflation and immigration.
Pennsylvania Republican David McCormick did launch an attack against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey featuring footage of the debate and footage of Casey praising Biden, ending with text on screen asking, “When will Casey finally tell the truth?” But for now, the ad is just airing online, backed by a five-figure digital buy.
“These digital ads are a way to road-test messages that might be used in broadcast later on,” said one GOP strategist, who is not connected to McCormick’s campaign and was speaking broadly of online messaging. The strategist noted that Republicans are in the process of testing possible messages in polls and focus groups, and those results will determine the content of the ads that end up on the airwaves.
“The debate among Republican operatives is how hard of an edge can you go with this,” the strategist said, noting some concerns about turning off voters with too harsh a message about Biden's personal capacities.
Another GOP strategist also expected more messaging focused on Biden’s mental acuity “now that Americans have seen it” in the debate. The strategist noted that tone will be key, to be careful not to offend older voters, who are a key part of the GOP coalition.
But, the strategist added, the debate “has opened the door for Republicans to use it.”
Democrats, though, have noted since Biden's debate that their down-ballot candidates had been faring better than the top of the ticket, as well-known incumbents have leveraged their bipartisan brands.
"Senate races are candidate vs. candidate battles, and Republicans' problem is that that they've got a roster of recruits with disqualifying vulnerabilities," Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee communications director David Bergstein said in a statement. "GOP Senate candidates have been caught lying about their biographies, ensnared in scandals stemming from their finances, and their toxic agenda on issues like reproductive freedom is a deal-breaker for voters."
