SAN FRANCISCO -- The first thing the Giants will remind themselves of this weekend is that they were never worried about 2024.
When they made the shocking and controversial decision to back out of an agreement with Carlos Correa because of a failed physical, they knew there was a good chance that he would still be performing at a very high level for a few seasons, and as Correa prepares to visit Oracle Park for the first time since 2023 free agency, that's the case.
The shortstop is headed to the 2024 All-Star Game for the third time in his career, and as he comes to San Francisco with the Minnesota Twins, there is no argument about which side of the dispute has a better opportunity to win a title this year.
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The Giants are four games under .500 after a disappointing series against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Twins are 53-40, and while they trail the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central race, they have an 84 percent chance of making the postseason, per FanGraphs. If they do, Correa would be two-for-two since returning to Minneapolis.
It's not hard to picture that being somewhat reversed. The last time Correa was at Oracle Park, he was preparing for a press conference to announce a 13-year, $350 million deal. Giants executives were all set to look on proudly on Dec. 20, 2022 as Correa held up a No. 6 jersey and smiled for cameras. He was going to ride a cable car in downtown San Francisco, a photo op that would have set the tone for an organization ready to build around a new star.
But that morning, the organization put out word that the press conference had been postponed. What initially was supposed to be a brief delay turned into the wildest month-long saga in the history of MLB free agency, one that included the shortstop agreeing to three separate deals with three teams that totaled $865 million. Two -- the Giants and New York Mets -- raised red flags about the state of Correa's ankle, and ultimately he ended up back in Minnesota on a six-year, $200 million contract.
San Francisco Giants
Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi couldn't do much at the time but read the angry tweets and listen to the confused talk radio callers while taking arrows. The Giants couldn't publicly give clarity about their concerns while Correa was trying to find his nine-figure deal elsewhere, but after his contract to return to the Twins became official, Zaidi finally got to give his side.
"I'm happy for Carlos," Zaidi said back then. "He's one of the great players in the game, and he seems happy with where he's going. I think the whole situation was really unfortunate and (it was) way more public than it should be if things were running in an ideal way.
"We're going to stick to our process and the only vindication that we're seeking and that we put any credibility in is being a good team on the field and that's our focus right now."
Zaidi moved on, signing Taylor Rogers and Michael Conforto to cap what ultimately was a very disappointing offseason. The quantity-over-quality approach didn't work, and the other notable additions from that winter -- Mitch Haniger, Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea -- are all gone.
Correa initially called the failed physical "shocking" and pushed back on the Giants' doubts about his long-term outlook, but he has taken the high road, which doesn't surprise the Giants, who were buying into his character and leadership nearly as much as his bat and glove.
During a recent interview with USA Today, Correa said returning to Minnesota "is the best thing that could have happened" to his family. He now views the length of the Twins contract as a huge plus.
"You know, the six years and the options seem a lot better than 13 years with the kids growing so fast and requiring so much attention to them," he told USA Today's Bob Nightengale. "At some point, I've got to make the tough decision of, 'Hey do I want to keep doing this or do I want to be with my family?' So, it's a lot easier with the structure on this contract than it was with a 13- or 12-year contract. This is definitely the best thing that could happen to me and my family."
If there is any bitterness or "I was right," it hasn't really shown. This is sports, though, and the score isn't just kept on the field for 162 games. The Correa decision will be talked about for years in San Francisco, and it won't be until he finally hangs it up that you can make a true determination on whether the Giants made the right call.
But a year and a half later, a lot more is known.
The Giants Side
Baseball always provides storylines, and the Giants added fuel to the fire this week without intending to. On Monday of the week when Correa would return, they DFA'd veteran shortstop Nick Ahmed, turning the position over to rookies Tyler Fitzgerald and Brett Wisely. The two will be in the spotlight this month no matter what as the Giants decide whether they need to trade for a more experienced option, and they won't be able to avoid the comparisons this weekend when Correa is kicking at the same infield dirt.
Both young players have shown flashes of what they can do, but the Giants can't reasonably say they have a long-term solution at the position. Marco Luciano is now splitting time between short and second in the minors and the Giants are closer than ever to admitting that their top prospect might ultimately not be a big league shortstop.
In Fitzgerald, Wisely and Casey Schmitt, the Giants have other prospects who could grow into the role. But rival executives expect them to be back in the middle of the shortstop market this offseason, with San Diego's Ha-Seong Kim and Milwaukee's Willy Adames being the top potential options. Kim, who is close to Jung Hoo Lee and played for Bob Melvin in San Diego, is viewed as a particularly likely target.
When evaluating the Giants side of this, you can't only look at what happens on the field. The Correa decision came on the heels of Aaron Judge returning to New York. Last offseason, the Giants missed out on Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamato. They still are waiting for a superstar to take their $300-plus million check, and the fan base is well past the point of being fed up.
The Giants took a massive PR hit that has added to a general feeling of dissatisfaction, not just by missing out on Correa, but by the way they handled the situation with popular incumbent Brandon Crawford. That month helped dig a bigger hole for a regime that has struggled to excite fans, and the lack of clear communication certainly didn't help Gabe Kapler's cause when his job was on the line last September.
The Giants were firm in their evaluation of Correa's ankle initially, and their thoughts haven't changed. Had Correa been available to them on a four- or five-year deal after multiple tests revealed a situation they weren't comfortable with, he would be wearing orange and black. But a CT scan, X-ray and MRI all had them feeling the same way: The initial 13-year agreement just no longer made sense.
The Giants still feel they had the right process, but ultimately there's just one way to make everyone forget the way everything went down. They need to win, and in the two seasons since letting Correa go, they're 124-132.
Correa's Side
The Twins went 87-75 last year and won the AL Central, although it wasn't Correa's best season, and last year it was easy for the Giants to feel that maybe they were right on performance alone.
Correa had a .711 OPS and 18 homers, his fewest over a full 162-game season since 2018. His .230 average was the lowest of his career and he was below league-average as a hitter by wRC+. Correa finished with 1.9 Wins Above Replacement, which would have tied him for fifth among Giants position players.
It was on defense where eyebrows were really raised. He was worth negative Defensive Runs Saved for the first time in his career and was at one OAA, finishing well behind Crawford, who was worth six Outs Above Average.
This season has been a much different story for Correa, who turns 30 in September. He again rates as a plus defender and he'll dig in Friday night with a .905 OPS and 13 homers in 74 games. By wRC+, he is having his best season at the plate, and he is on pace to be worth about six Wins Above Replacement. The Giants haven't had a player reach that air since Crawford was an MVP candidate in 2021.
By fWAR, Correa has been one of the 10 most valuable players in the big leagues, and he is hitting in the heart of a strong Twins lineup that is fifth in the big leagues in runs.
Most importantly for Correa's case, he has mostly managed to stay healthy. He appeared in 135 games last year and started at shortstop in all but one of them. This season, he has made 74 starts, all at shortstop.
Correa went on the IL in April but that was for an oblique strain and he was back in two weeks. Last season, he missed time in late September with plantar fasciitis, although he returned in time for a strong postseason run.
The foot injury hampered Correa for most of the season, but it was the other leg that spooked the Giants. In a few years, they might feel like they got all of this right, but given where they are right now, and given Correa's current level of play, it's pretty clear that he has been the winner in all of this thus far.