Conventional wisdom appears to be shifting towards the Red Sox buying at the trade deadline, and hooray for that. This team has earned some help.
But if there's any pushback, it's that we've seen this before. After all, the Red Sox were also 10 games over .500 in July of 2022, and they rolled into last year's All-Star break with eight wins in their last nine games. Both squads finished last, so what makes us so sure this one is any different?
Lots.
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It starts with personnel. The 2022 Red Sox were stumbling through the dying days of the previous era. Xander Bogaerts's botched contract negotiations cast a pall over the entire season, and he joined veterans J.D. Martinez, Christian Vazquez, and Nathan Eovaldi in wondering if they'd even finish the season in Boston, let alone return for 2023.
They rode a blistering 20-6 June into second place in the American League East, but it all fell apart in July. Shortstop Trevor Story, who had powered the team, broke his hand after being hit by a pitch and missed six weeks. The Red Sox went 6-19 in July and were out of it by the deadline.
Chaim Bloom famously tried to play the middle by selling off Vazquez but keeping everyone else, and that was the end of that. The Red Sox won 78 games.
The story last year was a little different. The Red Sox had played through some disastrous defense, particularly with veteran Kiké Hernández making the ill-advised move from center field to shortstop, and even though they seemed to find their footing in July, it was clearly tenuous.
With Chris Sale sidelined by a bum shoulder, Tanner Houck knocked out by a line drive to the face, Nick Pivetta shifted to the bullpen, and veteran Corey Kluber lurching towards retirement, the Red Sox found themselves with only three healthy starters. They made it work because the All-Star break came at exactly the right time, and then through a quirk of the schedule, they found themselves with three off days between July 20 and the trade deadline.
That allowed manager Alex Cora to finesse his way through two bullpen games per turn, but it wasn't going to last, especially as one of his three healthy starters, veteran James Paxton, showed signs of wear himself.
It all came crashing down around the deadline, as Bloom once again did very little. The Red Sox lost eight of 10, young sparkplug Jarren Duran broke his toe, and the Sox wilted, finishing last with 78 wins.
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So whereas the 2022 team was transitioning away from some of the last pieces of the 2018 championship, and the 2023 club was a mishmash of not-ready-for-prime-timers and short-term veteran stopgaps, this team is developing a clear identity.
The Red Sox are built around the next generation. Rafael Devers is the lone championship holdover, and he was joined on the All-Star roster by fellow homegrown standouts Houck and Duran. The Red Sox have already extended exciting young super utilityman Ceddanne Rafaela, as well as right-hander Brayan Bello, who could still yet salvage an inconsistent season by pitching like the man Cora tabbed to start opening day.
Add athletic catcher Connor Wong and speed merchant infielder David Hamilton, and we're looking at the most dynamic Red Sox team of the last 50 years, if not ever.
Cora considers their relentless, attacking style virtually slump-proof, because they can steal games like the one in Cincinnati when Duran tagged up on a foul-out to third to score the winning run, and then saved it with a leaping catch against the center field fence to rob a homer in the ninth.
Following another season-ending injury to Story, it took the Red Sox some time to find the right defensive mix. But since settling on Rafaela as the primary shortstop in late June, they own the best record in baseball at 23-8. They've soared back into wild card position, and are even pushing the Yankees, whose 14-game lead has been whittled to 4.5 in less than a month.
Since the start of June, the Red Sox have lost just one series in 11 tries. If there's an issue, it's that they lack starting pitching depth and can ill afford an injury to any member of their rotation, even though Houck just hit a career-high in innings and Kutter Crawford should join him later this month, too.
That makes their needs abundantly clear: another arm at a minimum. They've earned that much with their inspiring play, which should dispel notion that this is somehow just more of the same.