The biggest X-factors for fantasy basketball 2024-2025: The Thompson twins, Paolo Banchero and more

X-factors are the players who end up being the biggest difference-makers for that season, whether negative or positive.

When you gamble on an X-factor and it pays off, you’re usually handsomely rewarded, like Kawhi Leonard’s fantasy managers were this year. But if things go south, like they did for Jordan Poole and his fantasy managers, it’s almost like you’ve flushed your fantasy season down the toilet.

So looking ahead, here are a dozen players who might make or break your NBA fantasy season for the 2024-25 campaign.

1. Joel Embiid, PHI

Embiid was carrying the Philadelphia 76ers, and countless fantasy teams, on his back for the first half of the season, but that weight became too much to bear. And the vast majority of those fantasy teams who were at the top of the standings thanks to him, also came tumbling down eventually, with Embiid’s April return being too little, too late for many.

Now in his eighth NBA season, Embiid has missed 14 games or more every year, without fail. Compare that to Nikola Jokic, who has missed 10 games or more just once during his nine-year career. Of course, it would be much easier to ignore Embiid in drafts next year if he hadn’t just had one of the most dominant (half) seasons we’ve ever seen. So where do we go from here? Well, first, let’s see how he looks now that’s he’s back, and if he can propel the 76ers into the second round of the playoffs.

We know that Embiid is going to put up MVP-caliber numbers whenever he plays, so it’s simply a matter of how many games he’s going to miss next season, and if you’re willing to stomach the risk involved with selecting him over other elite players. If he falls far enough, he’ll represent excellent value, but if he doesn’t give you 60+ games, it might be hard to win your league.

2. Anthony Edwards, MIN

Forget the cliche comparisons to Michael Jordan, how about prime Tracy McGrady instead? Edwards made his first All-Star appearance during his age 21 season, just like McGrady did after joining the Orlando Magic. Now in his age 22 season, Edwards is currently averaging 26.1 points and 6.3 free throw attempts per game. At the same age, McGrady averaged a very similar 25.6 points and 7.3 free throw attempts per game.

So, do you want to guess what T-Mac did in his age 23 season? Well, that’s when he earned his first scoring title by netting 32.1 points per game, which was buoyed by him getting to the foul line 9.7 times per game. Peak T-Mac was nearly unguardable, and Edwards appears to be on that same trajectory. Are you starting to like the player comparison now?

Unfortunately, you’ll probably need to use a Top 10 pick on Edwards in most drafts next year, and for him to return that kind of value, he’ll also need to boost his steals and assists, not just his scoring numbers.

3. Paolo Banchero, ORL

What do Banchero, LaMelo Ball, Luka Doncic, Ben Simmons, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, Brandon Roy and LeBron James have in common? Since the year 2000, they are the only players who’ve won Rookie of the Year and were also named All-Stars during their first two NBA seasons. So Banchero’s professional career is off to a great start, even if his fantasy ranking is still lagging behind.

Banchero is almost certain to take another leap in Year 3, but fantasy managers will want to ask themselves how large they think that leap is going to be. He has improved in two key areas this season: becoming a respectable 3-point shooter (36% 3P), and in finding and passing to his open teammates (5.4 assists per game). His free throw shooting has taken a step backwards, however, as he’s one of just three players currently shooting under 72% FT on 400+ free throw attempts, along with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Zion Williamson.

Hopefully Banchero will eventually transform into being an average foul shooter — the current league average is 78.4% FT — unlike Giannis and Zion, who still hover around 70% FT for their careers. That being said, Roto league managers who draft Paolo aggressively hoping he’ll shoot 76% FT or better next year will be sorely disappointed if he shoots in the 70-72% FT range again.

4. Zion Williamson, NOR

We may as well just place Zion on this list every year for the rest of his career, since he’ll likely always be high-risk, high-reward. He’s also an incredibly unique talent, as we haven’t seen too many players with his combination of size, skill and power. I’m one of those managers who stayed away from drafting Zion this past season, but seeing him play healthy rock solid ball over a prolonged period of time is definitely encouraging.

The issues with Zion are that his statistical weaknesses don’t represent much hope in terms of seeing some major improvements. His career-highs in steals and blocks are 1.1 and 0.6 per game, respectively, and he’s never shot better than 72% from the foul line. Simply being able to deliver a jump in one of those areas next year — either 1.5 steals, 1.0 blocks or 75% FT — would result in a strong fantasy season for Zion, but it’s hard for me to envision any of those outcomes happening. If any readers are overly optimistic about one of those jumps happening, I’d love to hear someone make a case for it.

5. Jalen Green, HOU

Green is on fire right now, but the reality is that his season has been full of more lows than highs. For example, during a 20-game stretch from mid-November to late-December, Green scored just 15.3 points and 1.8 threes per game on 37% FG and 29% 3P shooting. That’s pretty rough. Saying that Green’s 3-point shot is streaky would be an understatement, and he fails to make up for it by excelling on the defensive end. So when Green’s shots aren’t falling, he’s often doing more harm than good.

But the way that he’s finishing out this season is definitely encouraging, and fantasy managers would be wise to ignore whatever his final season ranking ends up being. Entering his fourth NBA season in 2024-25, and having turned 22 years old less than two months ago, the chances are pretty high that Green will have a breakout season next year. The question then becomes, how early are you willing to target him?

Also worth pointing out is that Green is thriving right now partly because he’s getting more touches and the paint isn’t as clogged, both the result of Alperen Sengun being sidelined. For Green to reach his full potential, and for the Rockets to build on their impressive 2023-24 season, Green and Sengun will need to figure out a way to not just coexist, but to flourish together moving forward.

6. Jonathan Kuminga, GSW

You’re welcome to the fantasy managers who benefited from me drafting Kuminga, then dropping him early in the season due to Steve Kerr’s reluctance to play him major minutes early in the year. After going scoreless in game 18 and then scoring just six points in game 20, Kuminga has scored in double-digits in 50 of his past 52 games played.

He’s still not much of a 3-point threat, but besides the early season hiccup, Kuminga has taken the leap forward that fantasy managers were hoping for. But now that he’s broken out, you’ll need to be much more aggressive when trying to draft him next season. A fair question to ask is, in which areas are Kuminga going to improve next? Defensively, it’d be nice to see his 4.8 rebounds and 1.2 stocks per game jump up to 6.0+ and 1.7+, respectively. But the overall point is, fans of Kuminga will be expecting more than just minor improvements next season.

7. Jordan Poole, WAS

One thing I know about fantasy breakout seasons is that the only thing worse than wrongly predicting a breakout year, is seeing that same player have his breakout season the following year, but you had completely written him off by then.

So this could be the quintessential case of just that: a young player having a disappointing fantasy season because he wasn’t ready for a starring role, then falling far in drafts the next year due to almost all fantasy managers souring on him as a result, then responding by having a much better year the next season, providing superb value to those who were willing to draft him. That’s the narrative I’m suggesting for Poole, now all he has to do is deliver.

If you believe in this narrative, then you’re hoping Poole has been humbled by scoring just 17 points per game on only 41% shooting from the field, and that he’ll lock himself in the gym over the summer to become a better version of himself. And perhaps the Wizards will even draft a game-changing point guard or big man come June, who will develop a nice one-two punch with Poole.

Or perhaps he’ll just flounder again next season, and soon fizzle out of the league, like a guard version of Chandler Parsons.

8. Scoot Henderson, POR

Among players who’ve played 1,000+ minutes, only Killian Hayes had a worse True Shooting mark than Henderson has this season. That might be a grim statistic for Scoot, since Hayes is now out of the NBA, but he was also a former Top 10 draft pick, who also played the point guard position. So for Henderson’s NBA future to go differently, he’ll need to learn how to score more efficiently.

It might be wishful thinking to think that Scoot will be a much improved player in Year 2, but if it happens, he’ll likely provide excellent value towards the end of drafts. If you want to be encouraged, consider that Hayes attempted less than 10% of his shots within three feet of the basket in three out of his four seasons in the league, whereas 26% of Henderson’s shot attempts this season have come from that distance. So we know that Scoot is much more capable of creating his own shot and getting into the paint, and it’s more a matter of finishing once he gets there.

9. Amen Thompson, HOU

10. Ausar Thompson, DET

I had plenty of trouble figuring out where to draft the Thompson twins before this season began, and after seeing them play as rookies and learning what they’re capable of stat-wise, I’m still not quite sure how to assess and evaluate them for next year. It took Amen 50 games before he truly cracked Houston’s rotation, and a big reason for him earning a larger role was Tari Eason going down with a season-ending leg injury.

Speaking of health issues, Ausar’s rookie season was shut down early due to his doctors discovering a blood clot. Until we know for sure that Thompson’s blood clots are a thing of the past, it’s something that we’ll want to keep in mind when deciding how to rank and draft him. After all, we’ve seen Chris Bosh’s career end prematurely due to blood clots in one of his lungs and his legs.

At just 21 years young, the Thompson twins are still several years away from reaching their primes, meaning continued growth should be expected over the next five seasons or more. A major leap forward will also likely happen in one of their next five seasons, but I tend to lean towards their breakouts happening later rather than sooner.

My thinking here is that both Amen and Ausar have a long way to go in terms of their shooting ability, from both the free throw line and behind the 3-point arc. Those are crucial categories for fantasy managers, and neither twin is even close to being considered average in either shooting zone. As such, I don’t project their fantasy values to truly soar up the rankings until they get their shooting strokes dialed in.

That being said, you’ll still need to be aggressive when targeting the Thompson twins next season, because their big statistical games and their highlight reels tend to be very eye-opening. So they won’t be falling far in drafts because they’re boring players, and I’m guessing at least one person in every draft will be willing to pick them a round or two too early, just in case that major breakout year is on the horizon.

11. LaMelo Ball, CHA

12. Mark Williams, CHA

Ball and Williams were one of the most disappointing dynamic duos this season, due to them playing just 41 games combined! For Ball, he has now played in just 184 regular season games over four NBA seasons, while sitting out 134 games. That means he’s missed over 42% of his team’s games since entering the league, making it hard to argue with anyone who’s calling him injury-prone. On paper, Ball is still a first round fantasy talent, but his injury history suggests that he shouldn’t be a Top 20 pick unless you’re in a rare league that uses per game stats, rather than totals.

For Williams, he hasn’t played since early December, which is concerning because he’s missed multiple months now due to a mysterious back injury. If Williams had suffered an injury that required surgery, with a more concrete timetable to return to action, fantasy managers would be more optimistic. But even noted NBA injury expert, Jeff Stotts, seems to be a little perplexed by Williams’ back issue, making the following statement:

“It’s hard to tell if this is muscle, bone, or anything else because we don’t really know. It’s not overly surprising to see a back issue linger, but to have it called a back contusion and continue to linger suggests maybe there’s something more going on there.”

As a result of their injury-plagued seasons, both Ball and Williams could be seriously discounted in fantasy drafts next year, allowing for major ROI (return on investment) opportunities. One of this season’s biggest X-factors was Kawhi Leonard, because he’s sat out just six games thus far, after missing 30 games the season prior. Based on his previous injury history, lots of risk-averse fantasy managers allowed Leonard to fall further than he should have in fantasy drafts, while managers who pounced on Leonard this season were rewarded. Perhaps we’ll see the same thing happen next season with LaMelo?

(Top photo of Amen and Ausar Thompson: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)