Recruiting thoughts: Ohio State’s dominance, Kalen DeBoer’s statement, Texas’ expected surge

It used to be easy to figure out which teams had the most talent.

You could go to a recruiting website, add up the blue-chippers from the four previous signing classes and do the math. The transfer portal era ruined that.

Some teams will shuffle in and out upward of 40 players during the offseason, and recruiting classes from only two years prior look vastly different.

Remember that monster 30-man, No. 1-ranked class Jimbo Fisher signed at Texas A&M in 2022 that included 18 top-100 prospects? Ten of those top-100 players are gone and only 16 members of the class remain on the Aggies’ roster entering this fall.

Nick Saban’s 2022 class finished one spot behind the Aggies, but only 11 members of that 25-man class remain in Tuscaloosa.

Are Texas A&M and Alabama just bad examples because of the coaching changes at both schools? Hardly. Georgia’s 2022 recruiting class, the one signed by Kirby Smart in the midst of winning back-to-back national championships, ranked right behind Texas A&M and Alabama. Only 16 of the Bulldogs’ 30 signees from that class are still in Athens.

It’s not an anomaly. It’s college football today. Rosters flip quickly.

There are 61 players among a group of 341 who signed with the 17 current ACC programs in the 2023 cycle who are no longer with their respective schools. Go back to the 2022 cycle, and a combined 40 percent of the signing classes in the ACC are gone. In the 2021 cycle, that number is 57 percent.

This doesn’t mean we should stop tracking recruiting classes. We just need to change our perspective on what it means and what we should value. Talent accumulation still matters. It just comes in different forms, and sometimes simply being involved with a recruit in his first go-around is huge because you never know when he will be looking for a new home.

And now some thoughts and takeaways on what’s transpired on the trail to this point:

1. Ohio State sits atop the 247Sports Composite rankings with 10 top-100 players — four more than any other team — among its 19 commitments. That’s impressive and a testament to the program’s push to get back to the top in the Big Ten after watching Jim Harbaugh and Michigan own the league the past three seasons.

But as my editor, Mitch Light, pointed out in a recent Until Saturday podcast, what’s really noteworthy about the Buckeyes’ haul to this point is that it isn’t just front-loaded at receiver.

Over the last two signing classes, three of the Buckeyes’ five five-star signees were receivers. This year’s talent haul is anchored by five-star cornerbacks Devin Sanchez and Na’eem Offord, from Texas and Alabama respectively, and Ohio-born five-star quarterback Tavien St. Clair, who many thought was the best performer at the Elite 11 Finals last week.

The next blue-chipper expected to pick the Buckeyes is four-star defensive lineman Trajen Odom from North Carolina. There are already two top-100 edge rushers in the class in Zahir Mathis and Zion Grady.

Lets go Bucks 🌰 #R2Xfamily #Rushmen #Brotherhood @R2X_Rushmen1 @R2X_Rushmen1 @Hayesfawcett3 pic.twitter.com/KQIOUzpNLG

— Zion (Ziggy) Grady🦍 (@GradyZion) June 24, 2024

2. Kalen DeBoer is making $10 million a season at Alabama to replace Saban, and so far, I’d say he’s been worth it. Yes, he hasn’t coached a game yet. But the fact the Crimson Tide sit at No. 2 in the team standings and have six top-100 commitments (and another ranked No. 104) is awfully impressive.

Remember, DeBoer helped convince five-star receiver Ryan Williams to stay home late in the recruiting cycle after the coaching change, and the Tide haven’t skipped a beat with this year’s haul. They flipped Elite 11 MVP Keelon Russell, a Texas native, from his pledge to SMU earlier this month. And on Wednesday, the Tide picked up their ninth commitment this month from four-star linebacker Dawson Merritt, a top-100 recruit from Kansas who had been to Missouri, Oklahoma and Nebraska on visits.

I thought DeBoer, who is from South Dakota and hadn’t coached in the South to this point, would struggle some on the trail. It just hasn’t happened yet.

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3. There have been more than 480 commitments in June to the 70 Power 4 programs (I’m still including Oregon State and Washington State), and Notre Dame is the only school that has yet to pick up a pledge this month.

The busiest programs on the trail in June? Rutgers (20 commitments), Georgia Tech (16), Arizona (15), Minnesota (15), Mississippi State (14), West Virginia (13), Boston College (13), Duke (12) and Indiana (11). None of those programs, though, had a top-100 player among those pledges.

Give Rutgers and Greg Schiano credit. Their 2025 class includes six blue-chippers (they signed only four in 2024). Among them are four top-250 players in safety Tariq Hayer from Washington D.C., and three New Jersey natives — receiver Michael Thomas III, linebacker DJ McClary and offensive tackle Jaelyne Matthews.

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4. Clemson has the top class among ACC schools, and Dabo Swinney deserves some praise for landing five top-100 players to this point. The Tigers signed five in the 2024 cycle but finished outside the top 10 in the rankings for the second year in a row.

This cycle, Swinney has plucked the two best players in the state of Virginia in four-star edge rusher Ari Watford and four-star running back Gideon Davidson (Georgia signed the top two players in Virginia in 2024). And the Tigers have the No. 2 player in North Carolina committed in four-star defensive lineman Isaiah Campbell and are a front-runner to land five-star offensive tackle David Sanders Jr., the top player in the state.

5. Ole Miss had three players decommit this week — four-star receivers Jerome Myles (No. 182 overall) and Dillon Alfred (No. 357) and three-star linebacker Corey Amos (No. 422) — and tumbled down into the 50s in the team rankings.

This is not out of the norm for this program. In the 2024 cycle, the Rebels had 10 players decommit from June on, and they still signed a top-25 class. Lane Kiffin shuffles the deck quite a bit.

6. It’s not exactly a crime anymore if you don’t sign a quarterback every recruiting cycle. But going two in a row without a high school QB probably isn’t smart.

That makes the battle between USC and Colorado for five-star quarterback Julian Lewis intriguing. Neither signed a high school quarterback in 2024. Lewis has been committed to USC since August but visited the Buffaloes last weekend after making stops at Auburn, USC and Indiana before that.

There are 28 blue-chip quarterbacks in the 247Sports Composite, and only one remains uncommitted: four-star Malik Washington from Severn (Md.) Archbishop Spalding. The Elite 11 Finalist is set to announce his commitment Friday, with Maryland considered the favorite over Virginia Tech, UCF and Syracuse.

Auburn, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Maryland, Ole Miss, SMU and UCF are the only P4 schools that do not have a quarterback commitment in their 2025 classes.

7. Miami, Florida State and Florida finished fourth, 12th and 13th, respectively, in the 2024 cycle but are off to relatively slow starts in the 2025 cycle. There’s no reason to panic yet.

The Hurricanes picked up commitment No. 13 on Thursday in four-star cornerback Chris Ewald to move up to No. 16 in the rankings. He is the eighth blue-chipper in the Canes’ class. Surely, Mario Cristobal will be adding more star power to his 2025 class.

Florida also added to its class Wednesday, landing four-star receiver Joshua Moore out of West Broward High School in Pembroke Pines, Fla. The Gators have only seven commitments, but four are ranked among the top 400 nationally. They are trying to use DJ Lagway, the five-star QB who headlined their 2024 class, to attract elite receivers and other offensive weapons.

Florida State sits 64th with only six commitments but is expecting to go on a run soon. The reigning ACC champions hosted most of their top targets on the final recruiting weekend. They’ve also got an average player rating of 94.1, second only to Ohio State. That’s high-quality recruiting.

8. Who is going to make the biggest leap in the rankings in the weeks and months ahead? The safe bet is Texas.

The Longhorns are currently ranked 17th but are very much in it for a host of five-stars — receivers Dakorien Moore, Jaime Ffrench and Kaliq Lockett, safety Jonah Williams and offensive tackle Michael Fasusi. There’s also a bunch of uncommitted recruits in-state whom the Longhorns are in on. I’d be stunned if the Longhorns don’t sign a top-six class for the fourth cycle in a row.

(Photo of Ryan Day: Adam Cairns / Columbus Dispatch / USA Today Network)