If your current fantasy roster still even partially resembles the team you drafted, you’re likely in the minority. For the rest of us normal people, I’ll be using a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s MLB waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy baseball statistics in regard to control, batted ball quality, and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap gems to grab now before the squares figure it out next week. At the very bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, as well as two-start pitchers and speculative adds.
(Stats are courtesy of our friends at Trumedia and capture action through 7/10/24)
Advertisement
Here we go…
Starting Pitchers
As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are the ability to generate whiffs (first list below) and limit hard contact (second list below). While showing up on one of these two lists may be noise, I’m treating an appearance on both as a signal to immediately pull the trigger.
Available Starters: Multiple >30% Whiff Offerings (min. 20 Pitches, Since June 1)
- Hayden Birdsong, SF — Changeup 39.1%, Curveball 33.3%, Slider 32.3%
- Alec Marsh, KC — Slider 36.2%, Sweeper 33.3%, Curveball 31.9%
- Mitchell Parker, WAS — Split-Finger 34.5%, Slider 32.7%, Curveball 30.9%
- Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL — Split-Finger 51.9%, Changeup 46.2%
- Frankie Montas, CIN — Split-Finger 51.5%, Slider 33.3%
- Spencer Arrighetti, HOU — Curveball 46.9%, Sweeper 39.5%
- Tobias Myers, MIL — Changeup 45.2%, Slider 32.5%
- Hayden Wesneski, CHC — Sweeper 44.3%, Cutter 30.8%
- Ryan Feltner, COL — Changeup 41.3%, Curveball 30.4%
- Luis Medina, OAK — Curveball 40.7%, Slider 31.8%
- Dean Kremer, BAL — 4-Seam Fastball 39.3%, Split-Finger 34.6%
- Brayan Bello, BOS — Slider 38.6%, Changeup 36.5%
- Chris Flexen, CHW — Curveball 37.1%, Changeup 34.0%
- Andre Pallante, STL — Curveball 35.9%, Slider 34.1%
- Michael Lorenzen, TEX — Changeup 34.7%, Sweeper 30.8%
- Griffin Canning, LAA — Slider 32.4%, Curveball 32.0%
- Hogan Harris, OAK — Changeup 31.4%, Curveball 30.0%
- Patrick Corbin, WAS — Slider 31.3%, Cutter 30.6%
- Yariel Rodriguez, TOR — Curveball 30.8%, Slider 30.4%
Available Starters: ≤.350 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only (xwOBAcon, Since June 1)
- Yariel Rodriguez, TOR — 0.247 xwOBAcon
- Drew Thorpe, CHW — 0.295 xwOBAcon
- Ben Lively, CLE — 0.314 xwOBAcon
- Jake Bloss, HOU — 0.317 xwOBAcon
- Miles Mikolas, STL — 0.315 xwOBAcon
- Luis Medina, OAK — 0.334 xwOBAcon
- Tyler Anderson, LAA — 0.334 xwOBAcon
- Yilber Diaz, HOU — 0.335 xwOBAcon
- Kyle Harrison, SF — 0.348 xwOBAcon
Hidden Gem: We’ve officially entered the “add first, asks questions later” segment of the fantasy season if you’re in need of a lasting pitching solution. I’ve kept a hairy eyeball on Toronto’s 27-year-old righty Yariel Rodriguez since earning an opening day role out of spring training. Uncertainties surrounding overseas adjustments plus initial workload concerns proved enough to keep him at arm’s length — and off my rosters when thoracic spine inflammation sent him to the IL. Then, last week, the Jays reported a full recovery and immediate reinsertion into the rotation after proper rehab. After back-to-back single-inning outings, TOR removed the regulator and the result has been two straight gems — 12.2 IP, 1 Win, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 12 K. Rodriguez generates whiffs with both his slider and curve, creating an above-average complement to the four-seamer. I’d call his heater good but not great, though I love the fact he spins the heck out of the ball — Rodriguez’s 2416 rpm ranks top 15 among starters in fastball revolutions. He’s also shown the ability to pitch distance, completing at least six innings in each of the past two starts for a Blue Jays team that is going to at least compete for wins on a nightly basis. The fantasy ceiling is likely capped as a backend SP4… but who among us can honestly say that wouldn’t be a huge help right about now?
Available Hitters: >106.5 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Jesús Sánchez, OF, MIA — 110.3 m.p.h. EV
- Jake Burger, 3B, MIA — 109.9 m.p.h. EV
- Michael Conforto, OF, SF — 109.1 m.p.h. EV
- Mark Vientos, 3B, NYM — 108.8 m.p.h. EV
- Rowdy Tellez, 1B, PIT — 108.9 m.p.h. EV
- Brent Rooker, OF, OAK — 108.5 m.p.h. EV
- Lawrence Butler, OF, OAK — 108.3 m.p.h. EV
- Colton Cowser, OF, BAL — 108.1 m.p.h. EV
- Jack Suwinski, OF, PIT — 107.3 m.p.h. EV
- Heliot Ramos, OF, SF — 107.2 m.p.h. EV
- Hunter Goodman, C, COL — 107.0 m.p.h. EV
Available Hitters: <25% Chase Rate And >.395 xwOBAcon (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Ben Rice, 1B, NYY — 18.1% Chase, 0.497 xwOBAcon
- Rowdy Tellez, 1B, PIT — 22.2% Chase, 0.444 xwOBAcon
- Daniel Schneemann, OF, CLE — 20.4% Chase, 0.438 xwOBAcon
- Jack Suwinski, OF, PIT — 19.2% Chase, 0.419 xwOBAcon
- JJ Bleday, OF, OAK — 24.9% Chase, 0.407 xwOBAcon
- Michael Toglia, 1B, COL — 25.0% Chase, 0.400 xwOBAcon
- Justyn-Henry Malloy, OF, DET — 22.8% Chase, 0.399 xwOBAcon
- Chris Taylor, OF, LAD — 17.8% Chase, 0.396 xwOBAcon
Available Hitters: ≥17% Pulled Fly Ball/Line Drive Per Plate Appearance (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Ernie Clement, 3B, TOR — 26.6% Pulled FBLD%
- Dylan Carlson, OF, STL — 19.4% Pulled FBLD%
- Adam Duvall, OF, ATL — 19.0% Pulled FBLD%
- Harrison Bader, OF, NYM — 18.2% Pulled FBLD%
- Eugenio Suárez, 3B, ARI — 18.1% Pulled FBLD%
- José Caballero, SS, TB — 17.7% Pulled FBLD%
- Jake Fraley, OF, CIN — 17.6% Pulled FBLD%
- Mickey Moniak, OF, LAA — 17.8% Pulled FBLD%
- Kyle Isbel, OF, KC — 16.9% Pulled FBLD%
Hidden Gem: In this week’s edition of striking while the fantasy iron is hot, I’m not sure another star has burned brighter since June 1 than Pittsburgh’s 1B Rowdy Tellez. The power has always been legitimate for the big man, peaking at 35 ding-dongs in 2022, but we should be careful labeling him as a one-trick pony. Tellez is only 29 years old and he’s honestly put together an incredibly strong set of underpinning stats the past five weeks. Over his past 104 PA, it’s not just top 40 hitter returns GMs are reaping — .351 BA / 16 R / 22 RBI / 7 HR / 1 SB, 1.023 OPS, .392 xwOBA — as it’s built on a strong foundation of strict discipline (12.5% K-BB, 5.9% Swinging Strike, 24.7% Chase) plus elite contact skills (92.6% Zone-Contact, 40.8% Pull) and the top-shelf power that has always been baked into Rowdy’s cake (13.2% Barrel, .466 xwOBAcon). Tellez currently sits at 15% rostered across multiple sites, and that must change for anyone falling behind in the HR category — he could hit 20 bombs in the second half on a pure runout.
Advertisement
Relief Pitchers
Targeting roles over skills is something I’ve always preached when drafting closers, but zeroing in on stat combinations like elite command plus swing-and-miss-ability could help us identify the potential next men up, especially in more vulnerable bullpens. If you want to go deeper on RPs, I also strongly suggest Greg Jewett’s weekly column — nobody does relievers better.
Relievers: >13.5% Swinging Strike And <34% Ball Rates (min 30 IP)
- Dylan Lee, ATL — 18.7% SwStrk%, 29.4% Ball
- Enyel De Los Santos, SDP — 16.0% SwStrk%, 32.1% Ball
- Ryne Stanek, SEA — 14.5% SwStrk%, 33.6% Ball
- Andrew Nardi, MIA — 14.4% SwStrk%, 33.8% Ball
- Joe Jimenez, ATL — 14.0% SwStrk%, 33.5% Ball
- Hunter Stratton, PIT — 14.0% SwStrk%, 31.1% Ball
- Matt Strahm, PHI — 14.0% SwStrk%, 27.6% Ball
- Cam Booser, BOS — 13.9% SwStrk%, 29.2% Ball
- Adrian Morejon, SDP — 13.8% SwStrk%, 31.5% Ball
- Hunter Harvey, WSN — 13.5% SwStrk%, 32.0% Ball
Top waiver wire adds by position
Catcher
- Alejandro Kirk, TOR — +10 teams
- Hunter Goodman, COL — 10/12 teams
- Patrick Bailey, SF — +12 teams
- Kyle Higashioka, SD — 12/15 teams
- Freddy Fermin, KC — +15 teams
First Base
- Rowdy Tellez, PIT — +10 teams
- Nate Lowe, TEX — 10/12 teams
- Michael Toglia, COL — +12 teams
- Nolan Schanuel, LAA — 12/15 teams
- Jon Singleton, HOU — +15 teams
Second Base
- Luis García Jr., WAS — +10 teams
- Zack Gelof, OAK — 10/12 teams
- Spencer Horwitz, TOR — +12 teams
- Lenyn Sosa, CHW — 12/15 teams
- Max Schuemann, OAK — +15 teams
Shortstop
- Zach Neto, LAA — +10 teams
- Brooks Lee, MIN — 10/12 teams
- Jeremy Peña, HOU — +12 teams
- Geraldo Perdomo, ARI — 12/15 teams
- Ernie Clement, TOR — +15 teams
Third Base
- Colt Keith, DET — +10 teams
- Michael Busch, CHC— 10/12 teams
- Jake Burger, MIA — +12 teams
- Eugenio Suárez, ARI — 12/15 teams
- Justyn-Henry Malloy, DET — +15 teams
Outfield, +10/12 Team
- James Wood, WAS
- Heliot Ramos, SF
- Alec Burleson, STL
- MJ Melendez, KC
- Cedric Mullins, BAL
- Trevor Larnach, MIN
- Jake Meyers, HOU
- Lawrence Butler, OAK
- Matt Wallner, MIN
- Bryan De La Cruz, MIA
Outfield, +12/15 Team
- Jose Siri, TB
- Angel Martínez, CLE
- Leody Tavares, TEX
- Andy Pages, LAD
- Luke Raley, SEA
- Will Benson, CIN
- Brenton Doyle, COL
- Tommy Pham, CHW
- Jesús Sánchez, MIA
- Jesse Winker, WAS
Outfield, +15 Team/Only
- JJ Bleday, OAK
- Michael Conforto, SF
- Kyle Isbel, KC
- Alex Verdugo, NYY
- Rece Hinds, CIN
- Adam Duvall, ATL
- Harrison Bader, NYM
- Daniel Schneemann, CLE
- Wenceel Pérez, DET
- Hunter Renfroe, KC
- Gavin Sheets, CHW
- Justyn-Henry Malloy, DET
- Sal Frelick, MIL
- Mickey Moniak, LAA
- Alek Thomas, ARI
- Jo Adell, LAA
- Josh Palacios, PIT
- Brent Rooker, OAK
- Heston Kjerstad, BAL
- Jacob Young, WAS
- Johan Rojas, PHI
- Dominic Canzone, SEA
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC
- Masataka Yoshida, BOS
- Jack Suwinski, PIT
- Connor Joe, PIT
- Richie Palacios, TB
- Trent Grisham, NYY
- Andrew McCutchen, PIT
- Miguel Andujar, OAK
- Andrew Benintendi, CHW
- Jake McCarthy, ARI
- Nick Gordon, MIA
- Tyrone Taylor, NYM
- Blake Perkins, MIL
- James Outman, LAD
- Garrett Mitchell, MIL
- Jonny DeLuca, TB
- Michael Siani, STL
- Mark Canha, DET
- David Peralta, SD
- Tyler Freeman, CLE
- Jake Cave, COL
- Jhonkensy Noel, CLE
- Chas McCormick, HOU
Hitter Stashes
- Colby Mayo, BAL
Starters
- Shane Baz, TB
- Taj Bradley, TB
- Yariel Rodriguez, TOR
- Gavin Stone, LAD
- Simeon Woods-Richardson, MIN
- Hayden Birdsong, SF
- Hayden Wesneski, CHC
- Kyle Harrison, SF
- Christian Scott, NYM
- Drew Thorpe, CHW
- Luis L. Ortiz, PIT
- José Soriano, LAA
- Yilber Diaz, ARI
- Cade Povich, BAL
- Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL
- Mitchell Parker, WAS
- Michael Mercado, PHI
- Frankie Montas, CIN
- Andre Pallante, STL
- Spencer Arrighetti, HOU
- Michael Lorenzen, TEX
- J.P. Sears, OAK
- Tobias Myers, MIL
- Ben Lively, CLE
- Joey Estes, OAK
- Griffin Canning, LAA
- Luis Medina, OAK
- Jonathan Cannon, CHW
- Alec Marsh, KC
- Colin Rea, MIL
- Carson Spiers, CIN
- Dean Kremer, BAL
- Slade Cecconi, ARI
- Davis Daniel, LAA
- Germán Márquez, COL
- Ryan Feltner, COL
- Adam Mazur, SD
- Trevor Rogers, MIA
- Hogan Harris, OAK
- Logan Allen, CLE
- Mitch Spence, OAK
- Bailey Falter, PIT
- Roddery Muñoz, MIA
- Landon Knack, LAD
Starting Pitcher Stashes
- Robbie Ray, SF
- Jeffrey Springs, TB
Relievers
- Aroldis Chapman, PIT
- Yimi García. TOR
- Jeff Hoffman, PHI
- Jason Adam, TB
- Jalen Beeks, COL
- Yennier Cano, BAL
- Justin Slaten, BOS
- Nate Pearson, TOR
- John Brebbia, CHW
- Griffin Jax, MIN
- Chad Green, TOR
- Bryan Hudson, MIL
- Andrew Kittredge, STL
- Daniel Hudson, LAD
- Hunter Harvey, WAS
- A.J. Puk, MIA
- Luis García, LAA
- Joe Jiménez, ATL
- Colin Holderman, PIT
- Jeremiah Estrada, SD
- Ryne Stanek, SEA
- Tyson Miller, CHC
- Hunter Gaddis, CLE
- Luke Weaver, NYY
- Tyler Rogers, SF
- Fernando Cruz, CIN
Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand new best-selling Substack page for all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.
(Top photo of Yariel Rodriguez: David Richard-USA TODAY)
