If you had to guess how strongly a place supported Donald J. Trump in the election, would you rather know how popular ‘Duck Dynasty’ is there, or how George W. Bush did there in 2000? It turns out the relationship with the TV show is stronger.
That’s how closely connected politics and culture can be.
The cultural divide largely falls along urban/rural lines. We saw a similar divide in November, with Hillary Clinton winning in cities, college towns, Native American reservations and areas with black and Hispanic majorities. Mr. Trump earned more votes in rural areas.
When we looked at how many active Facebook users in a given ZIP code “liked” certain TV shows, we found that the 50 most-liked shows clustered into three groups with distinct geographic distributions. Together they reveal a national culture split among three regions: cities and their suburbs; rural areas; and what we’re calling the extended Black Belt — a swath that extends from the Mississippi River along the Eastern Seaboard up to Washington, but also including city centers and other places with large nonwhite populations.
In the 1960s and ’70s, even if you didn’t watch a show, you at least probably would have heard of it. Now television, once the great unifier, amplifies our divisions.
This reflects the business of television as much as it does a fracturing national culture. In the past, notes James Poniewozik, the chief television critic for The New York Times, big network shows like “The Beverly Hillbillies” “reflected a business where sheer audience numbers were more important.” Now, advertising money is driven less by volume and more by demographics. You make more ad money, Mr. Poniewozik explains, by appealing to younger, more affluent, urban viewers.
Still, there are shows that find broader appeal. We’ve created a fandom map for each of the top 50 shows, ranked in order of the difference between their highest and lowest fan percentages. As you get deeper in the page, you’ll find the shows with more consistent popularity — points of unity in a splintering culture.
1.Duck Dynasty
Men with long beards and Christian values center the most geographically divisive show in the data set. “Duck Dynasty,” a reality show on A&E, follows the over-the-top lives of a Louisiana family that makes the Duck Commander duck call.
It is the prototypical example of a show that is most popular in rural areas. The correlation between fandom and the percentage of people who voted for Mr. Trump was higher for “Duck Dynasty” than it was for any other show.
2.Love & Hip Hop
VH1’s “Love & Hip Hop” showcases real hip-hop and R&B musicians in several American cities. It is most popular in the Black Belt. Over all, the share of black and Native American residents in a county account for 90 percent of the variation in the level of “Love & Hip Hop” fandom. Controlling for the share of black and Native American residents, the show is especially popular in Humphreys County in Mississippi, and least popular in Prince George’s County in Maryland.
3.NCIS
“NCIS” is a police procedural on CBS about a team of special agents from the Naval Criminal Investigative Service. Similar to “Criminal Minds,” another police procedural, it is most popular in rural areas.
A Forbes article about Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, said that the Trump campaign may have specifically targeted “NCIS” viewers. It said data analysis “drove the scaled-back TV ad spending by identifying shows popular with specific voter blocs in specific regions — say, ‘NCIS’ for anti-Obamacare voters or ‘The Walking Dead’ for people worried about immigration.”
4.The Voice
“The Voice,” a singing competition, is most popular in North Dakota and least popular in New York. It was behind only “Duck Dynasty” and “Fast N’ Loud” in its correlation with Trump voters.
5.The Daily Show
“The Daily Show,” Comedy Central’s news satire and talk show, typically has a politically liberal point of view. It’s most popular in cities and other more liberal-leaning areas along the coasts. Peak popularity is in San Francisco; it’s least popular in Alabama.
6.106 & Park
“106 & Park,” on BET, used the classic radio countdown formula to showcase hip-hop and R&B music videos. The show was canceled in 2014, but it remains a popular digital-only brand. The show is popular in the Black Belt, generally. You can also see an increase in the show’s popularity on Indian reservations in South Dakota and Arizona, a pattern that repeats itself in several of the maps.
7.Modern Family
“Modern Family” is an ABC mockumentary about an extended and blended Los Angeles family. Jay Pritchett’s family includes his much younger second wife; his cerebral stepson; his two neurotic adult children, one a gay man with a family of his own; and their spouses and children. The show has won many Emmy Awards over its eight-season run, including for outstanding comedy five seasons in a row.
Its audience pattern is the prototypical example of a city show — most popular in liberal, urban clusters in Boston, San Francisco and Santa Barbara, Calif., and least popular in the more rural parts of Kentucky, Mississippi and Arkansas.
8.Family Guy
“Family Guy” is an animated sitcom created by Seth MacFarlane that sends up American culture. Like many satirical comedies on our list, it is most popular in cities. The show’s popularity was more correlated with support for Hillary Clinton than any other show.
9.Empire
Fox’s musical-drama series “Empire” tells the story of a hip-hop music company, Empire Entertainment, and the family members who fight for control of it. The show, which The New York Times described as “a double-edged variation on a familiar genre, mixing not just hip-hop music and R&B, but also adding a contemporary sensibility to Aaron Spelling-era melodrama,” is most popular in the Black Belt and in parts of the country with a high percentage of Native Americans.
10.Tosh.0
Comedy Central’s “Tosh.0” subjects viral internet videos and other aspects of pop culture to the snarky commentary of the comedian Daniel Tosh. It’s very much a Northern show, but not necessarily an urban one. It is most popular in Colorado; least so in Mississippi.
11.The Big Bang Theory
“The Big Bang Theory” is a comedy that follows the life of four socially awkward but brilliant young scientists at Caltech in Pasadena, Calif. The show is most popular in central Iowa — particularly Ames, home to Iowa State University — and University Park, Pa., the home of Penn State.
12.The Simpsons
“The Simpsons,” which has run for 28 seasons on Fox, is set in the fictional town of Springfield (in an unknown state). Of all of the Springfields in America, it is most popular in Springfields in Virginia, Minnesota and New Jersey, and least popular in Springfields in Louisiana, Arkansas and Georgia.
13.Ridiculousness
“Ridiculousness” is a comedy clip show on MTV co-hosted by Rob Dyrdek (see: “Rob Dyrdek's Fantasy Factory”). It grabs viral videos from the internet, which the hosts then mock. The show is most popular in rural Alaska, New Mexico and Montana, and least popular in Washington, D.C., Atlanta and San Francisco.
14.South Park
“South Park” is an animated sitcom on Comedy Central that is not for children. The show revolves around four foul-mouthed fourth-grade boys in a small Colorado town, and it’s that state where it’s most popular.
15.Game of Thrones
“Game of Thrones” is an HBO fantasy drama set in a quasi-medieval period of swords and sieges. The show is full of treachery, murder, nudity, sex, dragons and, yes, zombies. It’s much more popular in cities than it is in the countryside, probably the only show involving zombies that is.
16.The Walking Dead
Flesh-eating zombies, called “walkers,” pursue the still-alive characters of “The Walking Dead” across the South. Now in its eighth season, the show is most popular in rural areas, particularly southern Texas and eastern Kentucky.
17.Bad Girls Club
“Bad Girls Club” was described in a New York Times review as “the on-location equivalent of ‘The Jerry Springer Show’ at its rowdiest.” More popular in the Black Belt, it’s a reality show on the Oxygen network that just finished airing its 16th season.
18.Real Housewives of Atlanta
“The Real Housewives of Atlanta” is the third and most popular installment of Bravo’s “The Real Housewives” franchise. It follows the sometimes outlandish lives of several black women.
19.The Tonight Show
“The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon” is more popular in cities than in the surrounding countryside. It gained a reputation this past election cycle for being less politically minded than other late-night programming.
20.It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia
Danny DeVito is one of the gang in “It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia,” an oddball and satirical sitcom set in South Philadelphia. It’s generally more popular in college towns (and most popular in Philadelphia).
21.Fast n’ Loud
“Fast N' Loud” is a reality show set in the Gas Monkey Garage, with the crew searching for run-down cars to restore. It’s the show most favored by men on our list, by far — 83 percent of “likes” came from men — and it is also one of the most Trumpian, second only to “Duck Dynasty.” While the Gas Monkey Garage is located in Dallas, the show is most popular in the area around the city, rather than in Dallas itself.
22.The First 48
“The First 48” is a documentary series that follows big-city homicide investigators in the first days after a killing. It has a classic Black Belt audience pattern.
23.Criminal Minds
“Criminal Minds” is a police procedural drama on CBS involving the F.B.I.'s Behavioral Analysis Unit in Quantico, Va. Like several of the other police procedurals, it is more popular in rural areas, particularly in the southeastern half of the country. It hits peak popularity in Alabama and rural Tennessee and is least popular in Santa Barbara, Calif.
24.Deadliest Catch
“Deadliest Catch” is a reality show on the Discovery Channel set among fishing vessels in the Bering Sea searching for crab in often dangerous conditions. It’s most popular in areas that are rural, cold and close to the sea, particularly Alaska and Maine.
25.Teen Mom
“Teen Mom,” recently renamed “Teen Mom OG,” spun off from the “16 and Pregnant” reality show. Now the young women featured have to deal with raising a baby. It’s most popular in rural Kentucky and least popular in New York City. As with “16 and Pregnant,” it’s much more popular among women — 94 percent of “likes” come from women, second only to “Pretty Little Liars.”
26.Pawn Stars
The setting of “Pawn Stars,” a reality show on the History Channel, is a 24-hour family-owned Las Vegas pawn shop. The deal making is “a cross between ‘Antiques Roadshow’ and ‘Let’s Make a Deal,’ ” a New York Times review said.
27.America’s Funniest Home Videos
The long-running “America's Funniest Home Videos” on ABC features humorous homemade videos submitted by viewers. If you could pick a safe show that appeals to almost everyone, this might be it.
28.Grey’s Anatomy
“Grey's Anatomy” is a long-running medical drama series on ABC, with reruns on the Lifetime network. The doctors and staff play around, fall in and out of love, struggle with personal demons and somehow find time to treat sick people. It has also elevated many an actor and actress to movie stardom during its 11-year, and counting, run. It’s most popular in a swath of the middle of the country, particularly in areas with a lower percentage of college graduates.
29.Keeping Up With the Kardashians
“Keeping Up with the Kardashians” on the E! cable network follows the Kardashian-Jenner family. It has been keeping up with Kim, Khloe, Kourtney and the others since 2007. The show tends to be most popular in areas with large Hispanic populations, particularly in the Southwest.
30.Scandal
“Scandal,” produced by Shonda Rhimes, who also produced “Grey’s Anatomy,” displays the classic pattern of a show popular with a black audience. The show follows the story of Olivia Pope, a crisis manager and independent consultant in Washington, D.C.
31.Saturday Night Live
“Saturday Night Live,” the 41-year-old late-night live comedy show, is very much an urban show. It’s most popular in cities throughout the country, and college towns. Amherst, Mass.; Madison, Wis.; and Ithaca, N.Y., are all among the top 10.
32.Bones
“Bones” is a crime procedural drama on Fox. Its twist: Each episode involves forensics on decomposed bodies. It’s most popular in areas scattered around the West Coast, and tends to be less popular in places with large nonwhite populations.
33.Dancing With the Stars
“Dancing With the Stars” on ABC pairs celebrities, often of the B-list variety, with professional dancers in a multi-week dance competition. Unlike “So You Think You Can Dance,” which is generally more of a city show, “Dancing with the Stars” is most popular in the countryside. It also has a higher share of “likes” from viewers aged 65 and up than any other show.
34.Rob Dyrdek’s Fantasy Factory
“Rob Dyrdek's Fantasy Factory” on MTV is a reality series following Mr. Dyrdek’s life running a giant warehouse designed for skateboarding. The map is very similar to that of “Ridiculousness.”
35.Law & Order: SVU
“Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” is set in New York. Like the original “Law & Order,” from which it was spun off, episodes often take inspiration from real crimes. The pattern of the show’s popularity is atypical: generally slightly more popular in rural areas and the Black Belt, but largely restricted to the eastern half of the country. It’s most popular in Albany, N.Y.; least in Colorado and Utah.
36.SpongeBob SquarePants
Nickelodeon’s “SpongeBob SquarePants” is a cartoon series that is safe for children and that has wide appeal.
37.Adventure Time
The West Coast seems to relish “Adventure Time,” a quirky animated series on Cartoon Network that works on an adult and child’s level. It is the most popular show among the young in the data — just over two-thirds of “likes” come from viewers ages 18-24.
38.MythBusters
“MythBusters” is a science show on the Discovery Channel in which the hosts perform experiments, often involving blowing things up or dropping things from great heights. It has the second-highest share of “likes” from men of any show in the data, after “Fast N’ Loud.”
39.American Horror Story
Each season of FX’s often-disturbing “American Horror Story” tells a story involving witches, ghosts or monsters. Unlike a lot of shows about the supernatural, it’s more popular in cities, but also throughout parts of the Southwest.
40.16 and Pregnant
“16 and Pregnant” was a reality series on MTV that followed pregnant teenage girls. Each episode featured a different high schooler dealing with the challenges of looming single motherhood. Similar to “Teen Mom,” it is more popular in rural parts of the country.
41.So You Think You Can Dance
“So You Think You Can Dance” is another dance competition show, this one on Fox. It was created by the same people who made “American Idol,” the musical talent show. In general, it’s more popular in cities, though it hits peak popularity in Utah.
42.Pretty Little Liars
“Pretty Little Liars,” with lots of kicky fashion, is a teen drama loosely based on a teen book series. Its popularity is tilted toward women more than any other show in the data — over 94 percent of “likes” come from women.
43.Cake Boss
“Cake Boss,” a reality series on the cable network TLC, takes viewers inside Carlo's Bake Shop in Hoboken, N.J., owned and operated by Italian-American siblings. But the audience is generally not urban; in fact, one hot spot is Appalachia.
44.Wipeout
“Wipeout,” which ran from 2008 to 2014, was a game show in which contestants tried to complete a race requiring them to do things like swing over flames or avoid falling into murky water. It’s most popular in Northern, rural areas with a large percentage of whites: Idaho, Utah, Wisconsin and Maine are all on the top of this show’s list.
45.Supernatural
In “Supernatural,” two brothers pursue a never-ending procession of demons and other otherworldly things. It exhibits a nonurban white audience pattern.
46.American Dad!
“American Dad!” is another animated sitcom created in part by Seth MacFarlane. Dad is a Republican C.I.A. agent; he has a hippie daughter and a dorky son. It is not popular in Utah or much of the South.
47.The Tom and Jerry Show
A series of short cartoons starring the animated adversaries Tom, a cat, and Jerry, a mouse, was first created in 1940 by the prolific team of William Hanna and Joseph Barbera. In 2014, the Cartoon Network revived “Tom and Jerry” as a series. It has that rare appeal for all three groups of Americans.
48.Once Upon a Time
ABC’s “Once Upon a Time” takes place in a fictional Maine town where residents are characters transported from classic fairy tales – Snow White, Rumpelstiltskin, etc. It’s most popular in Utah and eastern Idaho, where Mormons are populous.
49.Orange Is the New Black
“Orange Is the New Black,” very loosely based on a memoir by Piper Kerman of her year at a low-security prison, features a minority-rich ensemble cast. But it appeals more to a white audience.
50.The Vampire Diaries
“The Vampire Diaries” is based on a book series for adolescents and young adults. A teenage girl becomes involved with vampires in a small Virginia town full of supernatural beings. As with several other shows that focus on the supernatural, it’s slightly more popular outside of cities. That said, the show’s fandom has the smallest amount of spatial variation of all 50 shows.
Find which cultural bubble your town or city falls into by using this handy tool: