Genesis Scottish Open 2024 Winners, Finishing Position Bets, 'One-And-Done' Pick
The Genesis Scottish Open 2024 at The Renaissance Club is the best non-major or "signature event" on the PGA TOUR this season. It's co-sanctioned by the PGA and DP World Tour. Due to rescheduling by the PGA and the British Open next week, six of the top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings are in the Scottish Open field.
This includes the past two Scottish Open champions, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele, the 2023 U.S. Open winner Wyndham Clark, rookie phenom Ludvig Åberg, the 2021 Champion Golfer of the Year, Collin Morikawa, and 2023 PGA TOUR champion Viktor Hovland.
The Renaissance Club is an American-Scottish hybrid course. The Sarvadi family from North Carolina purchased a 99-year lease from the Duke of Hamilton for the land to build The Renaissance Club on. It was designed by American golf course architect Tom Doak. His biggest influence was Alister Mackenzie, the original designer of the Augusta National Golf Club.
It is a Par-70 that plays 7,237 yards: Three Par-5s, five Par-3s, and 10 Par-4s. If the weather is calm, the Scottish Open can be a birdie fest. However, The Renaissance Club is a bear if the wind picks up." Length off-the-tee (OTT), strong long iron play, and reliable putting are the recipe for success at the Scottish Open.
As an example of how brutal golf betting can be, three of my picks for last week's John Deere Classic finished inside the top 10, and I was still -3.0 units (u). I have four second-place finishes this year, including Michael Thorbjornsen last week. These close calls keep me from throwing in the towel even though my PGA TOUR 2024 balance is -51.27u.
Genesis Scottish Open 2024 Betting Card
Starting 5
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks.
Min Woo Lee (+3000)
Lee won the Scottish Open in 2021 at +10000 odds before it was a co-sanctioned event on the PGA TOUR. However, the Scottish Open was STACKED with talent featuring Jon Rahm, who was World No. 1 then, Rory McIlroy, a young Scottie Scheffler, Xander, and Morikawa.
Furthermore, Min Woo and Rory winning last year’s Scottish Open suggests "bombers" play well at The Renaissance Club. Lee is sixth in Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee (OTT) on TOUR this season and fourth in Club Head Speed. He’s gained strokes OTT in all 13 starts on TOUR this year.
Also, The Renaissance Club has large greens with an above-average 3-putt rate. The Aussie is 10th in 3-Putt Avoidance on TOUR in 2024 and ninth in Approach Putting. Min Woo has gained strokes with his putter in three of his four Scottish Opens, according to DataGolf.com.
Lee’s iron-play can be sketchy. However, he’s better with his long irons than most golfers because of that fast Club Head Speed. Min Woo is 15th in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards and 37th from 200+ yards on TOUR this season.
Finally, Lee comes into the Scottish Open with good form. He’s finished T26 or better in six straight starts, including the first three majors this season. Min Woo tied for second in the Rocket Mortgage Classic and would’ve been in the playoff if he didn’t bogey the 72nd hole in the final round.
BET 0.75u on Min Woo Lee (+3000) to profit 22.5u.
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Hideki Matsuyama (+3500)
Keep in mind, due to nagging back and neck injuries, Matsuyama has played mostly in "signature events" this year. Hideki has made the cut in all 14 starts this year with four T8 or better finishes and a win at The Genesis Invitational.
The 2021 Masters champion is back to playing top-level golf because his driver is a weapon again this season. He has gained strokes OTT in 12 of his 14 starts this season, per DataGolf.com. This is despite Matsuyama being average on TOUR in both driving distance and accuracy.
Granted, Hideki will have to use his long irons for most second shots at The Renaissance Club since he is not long OTT. But, Hideki is sixth in approach shots from 175-200 yards out on TOUR this season and 29th from 200+ yards.
Hideki Matsuyama lines up a putt during the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Moreover, he’s also one of the best around-the-green (ARG) in the world, which is valuable no matter the course. If The Renaissance Club plays tough and it’s difficult to hit the green in regulation, Matsuyama can score from ARG.
Finally, Matsuyama sucks at putting. Yet, according to DataGolf.com, he’s gained strokes on the greens in five consecutive starts and eight of the last 10, including three majors, and four "signature events".
BET 0.6u on Hideki Matsuyama (+3500) to profit 21u.
- I'm adding a 0.5u top-10 bet on Hideki (+280) at DraftKings.
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Jordan Spieth (+6000)
Until this season, the driver has been the weakest club in Spieth’s bag. Over the last 40 rounds with shot-link data, Spieth is ninth among PGA TOUR players in this field for SG: OTT and 20th in Ball Speed, per Bet The Number. Again, elite drivers do well at The Renaissance Club and Spieth has gained strokes OTT in his first two Scottish Opens in 2022-23.
The 10-time PGA TOUR champion is having a down year with the putter. Regardless, Spieth is typically great with the flat-stick, so I’m expecting he will turn it around on the greens by season’s end. Plus, Jordan is still 35th in 3-Putt Avoidance and ninth in Approach Putting on TOUR this year.
Jordan Spieth tees off at the 2nd hole the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club (Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
Spieth has a proven track record on links-style courses. He is the 2017 Champion Golfer of the Year. Jordan has four additional T9 or better finishes at The Open: T8 in 2022, second in 2021, T9 in 2018, and T4 in 2015. Even Spieth’s 2015 U.S. Open victory was at more of a "links-style" course. He did miss the cut at the 2023 Scottish Open but finished T10 two years ago.
Spieth’s Scottish Open will come down to how well he’s hitting his irons. Unfortunately, this season, he ranks 110th in SG: Approach (APP) on TOUR. Nonetheless, according to DataGolf.com, Jordan has gained strokes with his irons in four of his last six starts, including the U.S. Open and PGA Championship.
BET 0.4u on Jordan Spieth (+6000) to profit 24u.
- I'm adding a 0.5u top-20 bet on Spieth (+200) at BetMGM.
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Tom McKibbin (+9000)
This is an absolute "dart" because I've never seen this kid play and he is a full-time DP World Tour pro. Either way, I must include a DP golfer on my 2024 Scottish Open betting card. McKibbin won the 2023 Porsche European Open and has six top-10 finishes this year, with a sixth at the KLM Open and a second at the Italian Open in his last two starts.
The 21-year-old from Northern Ireland grew up playing at the same home club as Rory, the Holywood Golf Club. McKibbin is second in SG: OTT this season among full-time DP World Tour players. He's gained strokes with his irons in four straight starts. Plus, McKibbin was T35 at the 2023 Scottish Open, picking up strokes on the greens and on approach.
BET 0.25u on Tom McKibbin (+9000) to profit 22.5u.
- I'm adding a 0.5u top-20 bet on McKibbon (+250) at DraftKings.
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Nicolai Højgaard (+9000)
It’s been a rough rookie season on TOUR for Højgaard. After finishing second at the Farmers Insurance Open in his first start of the year, Højgaard missed 15 cuts and his best finish was a T16 at The Masters. He finished with a +2 at Augusta, but Højgaard got as low as -7 through 46 holes, which was the final score of Ludvig Åberg who finished second.
Nevertheless, his impressive finish at The Masters is part of the reason why I like Højgaard and I am using him again, even though he’s cost me money this year. He has a "major-winning ceiling". Højgaard got to the PGA TOUR, and the European 2023 Ryder Cup team, by winning the 2023 DP World Tour Championship.
That isn’t some bullsh*t European golf event. Several of the best golfers in the world played in last year's DP World Tour Championship, such as Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, Rahm, Tom Kim, Rory, etc. So, Højgaard won a "big boy" tournament and a Ryder Cup, and he is only 23 years old.
Not only does he have true "win equity", but Højgaard bombs it OTT and hits his long irons well, a recipe for success at The Renaissance Club. Nicolai is 16th in driving distance on TOUR this season, first in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards, and 30th from 200+ yards out.
Per DataGolf.com, Højgaard has gained strokes with his irons in three straight starts and four of the last five, including the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Ultimately, Højgaard is going for 90-to-1 odds when he should be closer to 60-to-1 odds.
BET 0.25u on Nicolai Højgaard (+9000) to profit 22.5u.
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Additional Finishing Position Bets
Make placement bets at BetMGM, DraftKings, or FanDuel. BetMGM never applies "dead heat" rules. DraftKings and FanDuel have top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties" for the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open.
Xander Schauffele Top-10 (-105): 1.05u to win 1u at DraftKings
The 2024 PGA champion has finished in the top 10 in 11 of 18 starts this season. Xander is the top golfer in my power rankings and won the 2022 Scottish Open. There isn’t a hole in Schauffele’s game currently. He is ninth in SG: OTT, fifth in SG: APP, 28th in SG: Around-the-Green, and 11th in SG: Putting on TOUR this year. He has the lowest rate of 3-Putts as well.
Xander Schauffele poses with the trophy after winning the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open. (Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
Tom Kim Top-10 (+230): 0.5u to win 1.15u at DraftKings
I’m sticking with my pre-season plan of betting on Kim at the Scottish Open this week and most likely The Open Championship next week. Kim was T6 and third in the past two Scottish Opens and T2 at The Open last year. He’s gained strokes on APP and with his putter in all four of his career Scottish and British Opens.
Tom is starting to play better after struggling to start the season. The South Korean lost to Scheffler in a playoff at the Travelers Championship ("signature event") a couple of weeks ago. He tied for fourth at the RBC Canadian Open last month too. The 22-year-old has gained strokes with his driver in seven consecutive starts.
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Genesis Scottish Open 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Tommy Fleetwood
After 25 tournaments, I have $11,578,835 and rank 1,477th in the 2024 Mayo Cup One-And-Done league. I've used my first three Genesis Scottish Open picks and my two finishing position bets in earlier events. Besides Åberg, who I'm saving for The Open Championship or one of the FedExCup playoff events, Fleetwood is the highest-ranked player I have available.
Fleetwood is a seven-time DP World Tour winner in good form. The Englishman has seven top-20 finishes on TOUR in 2024, including a T3 at The Masters and T16 at the U.S. Open. He was T6 at last year's Scottish Open, T4 in 2022, and second in 2020. Ultimately, this is a use-it-or-lose-it scenario since I'm not picking Fleetwood in the remaining "big boy" events.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.