Playbook: Bibi bites back

Presented by ExxonMobil

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

THE UNDERCARD IS SET — “Ernst to run against Cotton for Senate GOP No. 3 this fall,” by Burgess Everett: “In an interview Sunday afternoon, [Sen. JONI ERNST] said she received encouragement from colleagues about running for higher positions in the party leadership. But after deliberating for about a week, Ernst decided that the conference chair position is the right fit; she would be the highest-ranking Republican female senator in 50 years if she wins.”

JUST POSTED — Senate Majority PAC, the biggest Democratic spender on Senate races, is placing $239 million in ad reservations, WaPo’s Michael Scherer reports this morning. The breakdown: $65 million in Ohio behind Sen. SHERROD BROWN … $42 million in Pennsylvania behind Sen. BOB CASEY … $14 million in Wisconsin behind Sen. TAMMY BALDWIN … $23 million in Arizona … $14 million in Michigan.

BIDEN VS. BIBI REDUX — Consider the past five days in the long, roller-coaster relationship between President JOE BIDEN and Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU:

— On Thursday, Biden uses his State of the Union address to announce he’s planning to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza by sea, in essence sidestepping an Israeli blockade. Afterward, he’s heard on a hot mic telling a senator and his secretary of State, “I told him, Bibi, and don’t repeat this, but you and I are going to have a ‘come to Jesus’ meeting.”

— On Saturday, in an interview with MSNBC’s Jonathan Capehart, Biden warns against an Israel invasion of Rafah, the Gaza border town where more than a million displaced Palestinians are massed, calling it “a red line”; tells Netanyahu to “pay more attention to the innocent lives being lost as a consequence of the actions taken”; and accuses him of “hurting Israel more than helping Israel.”

— And yesterday, speaking to our European cousins at Axel Springer, Netanyahu thumbs his nose at all of it. Asked about Biden’s Rafah “red line,” he says: “We’ll go there. We’re not going to leave. You know, I have a red line. You know what the red line is, that Oct. 7 doesn’t happen again. Never happens again.” He also rejected Biden’s repeated calls for a two-state solution to the conflict, saying Israelis “resoundingly reject the attempt to ram down our throats a Palestinian state.”

Yes, it’s just the latest episode in a long, dysfunctional (some might say abusive) relationship. But consider the stakes right now in politics and human lives: Tens of thousands of Palestinians are already dead, and international observers fear thousands more could be killed in an assault on Rafah. Netanyahu is fending off calls for elections as he bets a scorched-earth offensive can rebuild a reputation left in tatters after Oct. 7. And Biden continues to lose support from key constituencies as his early hug of Bibi gives way to … whatever this is.

As AP’s Aamer Madhani, Tia Goldenberg and Zeke Miller write, Biden’s recent tough-love campaign with Netanyahu doesn’t appear to be getting anywhere with him. There’s no cease-fire deal, for one, and the PM is seeming to pay no price for his defiance.

“Despite Biden’s increased displays of frustration, Israeli officials and Middle East analysts say no signs are emerging that Biden can push Israel, at least in the short term, to fundamentally alter how it’s prosecuting the conflict that is entering a new dangerous phase,” they write.

What does it all add up to for Biden? We spoke to MATT DUSS, the EVP at Center for International Policy and former BERNIE SANDERS aide, and he essentially said, nothing good.

“This does have a negative impact on the reputation of the U.S. to see the leader of this client state speaking this way,” he said. “And it’s not the first time he’s behaved so disrespectfully to a country that gives his country enormous support.”

He added, “We’ve been seeing these leaks for months about how Biden is really getting upset with Netanyahu. OK: Show me how upset you are. Do something. Don’t just keep leaking how upset you are. Stop sending the bombs.”

Inside the White House, however, key officials are giving Netanyahu room to vent — and posture. The tough talk isn’t really about embarrassing Biden, the thinking goes, it’s about putting pressure on Hamas to take the hostage deal that’s currently on the table and keeping his right-wing governing coalition off his back.

What’s most important, an administration official told us last night, is what Netanyahu does, not what he says.

“We’re not seeing any signs right now that Israel is preparing a military operation to go into Rafah,” the official said. “Of course, that could change tomorrow. Of course, that could change at any point.”

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. What arcane federal bureaucratic drama will be at the center of next year’s Best Picture? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

INSIDE THE BIDEN BUDGET — It’s a tradition as old as it is meaningless: Budget Day at the White House.

You are correct to note that Congress still hasn’t finished passing fiscal 2024 appropriations, so please forgive us snarking our way toward fiscal 2025. But we still manage to pay a modicum of attention every year to glean how the administration is assembling and messaging its priorities — “show me your budget, and I’ll show you your values,” and all that.

Don’t expect any earth-shattering new policies today. Better to think of it as an appendix to last week’s State of the Union address, an opportunity to further emphasize the contrasts Biden laid out in the joint session.

The topline message, a White House official tells us, is that the Biden blueprint will “lower costs for families, protect and strengthen Social Security and Medicare, and reduce the deficit by about $3 trillion over 10 years by making big corporations and the wealthy pay their fair share.”

But current and former Biden officials counseled us to pay special attention to tax and housing policy amid today’s rollout — two areas where the administration could do more to ease Americans’ anxieties about the rising cost of living.

“The tax issue is a great contrast. It gives them the opportunity to do a little bit of bragging about what they’ve already accomplished and then focus on the future and what we want to do more of,” said former Biden economic aide MICHAEL LINDEN. “It’s a place where, frankly, the Republicans are very weak. It is very popular to raise taxes on rich people.”

As for housing, the administration is keen on sending the message to younger voters that it understands their struggle with housing prices and is working to address it.

“There’s a big segment of the population that rents or is trying to buy a house — and those are disproportionately young people and people of color,” one administration official told us last night. “We’re focused on speaking to them. … We’re doing everything we can via executive action. But we need Congress to act.”

Related read: “Biden is issuing a budget plan that details his vision for a second term,” by AP’s Josh Boak and Colleen Long

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: BIG WHCD PARTY NEWS — NBCU News Group has taken over as the media co-host of the coveted White House Correspondents’ Dinner afterparty held with French Ambassador LAURENT BILI at his Kalorama residence, a person familiar with the planning told our Daniel Lippman. The party was hosted for many years by Vanity Fair and Bloomberg before moving to Paramount and CBS News two years ago and then just CBS News last year.

The party takeover comes as NBC airs the Paris Olympics this summer, it celebrates the 50th anniversary of “Saturday Night Live” (with COLIN JOST as the comedian at the dinner), and senior White House correspondent KELLY O’DONNELL serves as White House Correspondents’ Association president this year. The party, always a hot ticket, is expected to be a much more intimate affair this year, Daniel is told.

THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Special counsel ROBERT HUR testifies before House Judiciary. Biden hosts Polish President ANDRZEJ DUDA and PM DONALD TUSK for a bilateral meeting at the White House. February CPI inflation numbers released. White House Budget Director SHALANDA YOUNG testifies before Senate Budget. Presidential primaries held in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington, as well as a Republican caucus in Hawaii and Democratic primary in the Northern Mariana Islands. … Wednesday: Biden travels to Milwaukee for official and campaign events. … Thursday: Biden travels to Saginaw, Michigan, for a campaign event. February PPI inflation numbers released. HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA testifies before Senate Finance. … Friday: Biden and Irish Taoiseach LEO VARADKAR hold a bilateral meeting at the White House and attend Friends of Ireland luncheon at the Capitol. Republican presidential caucus held in Northern Mariana Islands. … Saturday: Republican presidential caucus held in Guam. 139th Gridiron Club dinner. … Sunday: St. Patrick’s Day. Russian presidential election ends.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate is in. DNI AVRIL HAINES, CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS, FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY and others will testify before the Intelligence Committee at 2:30 p.m.

The House will meet at noon and at 2 p.m. will take up a variety of bills.

3 things to watch …

  1. After last week’s State of the Union reset, expect House Republicans this week to try to return public focus to Biden’s, um, frailties with Hur’s Judiciary Committee appearance tomorrow. Watch as well for next steps in what could be an escalating tiff between the House GOP and the Justice Department, which has yet to turn over tapes or transcripts from Hur’s interviews with Biden. More on Hur’s testimony from WSJ
  2. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Former Capitol Police officer HARRY DUNN is picking up endorsements this morning from Reps. COLIN ALLRED (D-Texas), JOYCE BEATTY (D-Ohio) and EMANUEL CLEAVER (D-Mo.) in his bid to succeed retiring Rep. JOHN SARBANES (D-Md.). The nods from the prominent Congressional Black Caucus members lend new credibility to Dunn’s run as he seeks to turn a post-Jan. 6 crusade for democracy into an electoral political career.
  3. Another one of the “McCarthy Eight” is facing a primary challenge: Rep. ELI CRANE (R-Ariz.), the only freshman among the small group that voted with Democrats to oust KEVIN McCARTHY as House speaker last year, will go up against a former county supervisor, JACK SMITH, for the GOP nomination in Arizona’s 2nd District, the Arizona Republic’s Laura Gersony reports. It’s a moderately tall order for Smith, who, among other things, will have to overcome GOP voters’ potential name confusion.

At the White House

Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will return to the White House from Wilmington, Delaware, this morning. Afterward, Biden will deliver remarks at the League of Cities. Later, Biden will travel to New Hampshire to deliver remarks at YMCA Allard Center in Goffstown and attend a campaign event in Manchester. Biden is scheduled to return to the White House in the evening.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel to San Francisco today. Later, Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will deliver remarks at a campaign reception.

PLAYBOOK READS

CONGRESS

CROCK OF BRITT, CONT’D — The woman whose story Sen. KATIE BRITT (R-Ala.) shared in the GOP response to Biden’s State of the Union last week confirmed to CNN’s Rafael Romo and Melissa Alonso that she was trafficked before Biden’s presidency and said politicians “lack empathy” when wielding the issue of human trafficking for political agendas. KARLA JACINTO, whose trafficking story was previously featured in CNN’s Freedom Project, told reporters: “I hardly ever cooperate with politicians, because it seems to me that they only want an image. They only want a photo — and that to me is not fair.”

The details: “Jacinto said she met the senator at an event at the southern border with other government officials and anti-human-trafficking activists, instead of one-on-one as Britt stated. She also said that she was never trafficked in the United States, as Britt appeared to suggest. She was not trafficked by Mexican drug cartels, but by a pimp who operated as part of a family that entrapped vulnerable girls to force them into prostitution. … Jacinto said she was kept in captivity from 2004 to 2008, when President GEORGE W. BUSH was in office and when Biden was a senator.”

ICYMI: “Katie Britt offers explanation for sex trafficking story … kind of,” by Kelly Garrity

TRUMP CARDS

PASS THE PLATE — A large evangelical conservative group led by RALPH REED intends to put more than $60 million behind DONALD TRUMP in an effort to close the former president’s fundraising gap heading into the general election, Alex Isenstadt reports this morning. The organization, Faith & Freedom, intends “to spend $62 million registering and turning out evangelical voters, texting and calling supporters, and door-knocking — $10 million more than it spent four years ago. The group is expected to, among other things, hand out 30 million pieces of literature in 125,000 churches.”

Nota bene: While Trump has been vague about “whether he would endorse a national abortion ban … Reed said his organization would maintain its backing for Trump, despite his equivocation on the issue.”

Speaking of Trump’s money crunch … CHRIS LaCIVITA is tapping RNC vet SEAN CAIRNCROSS to come back and manage the party’s operations and spending in the lead-up to November as the committee faces pressure to curb spending, Axios’ Sophia Cai reports: “Cairncross is a lawyer with a reputation of enforcing financial discipline — someone who can ‘watch the money,’ a top Trump adviser told Axios.”

INTEL REPORT — Rep. ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) is hoping that intelligence agencies would “dumb down” their standard national security briefings for Trump, he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” Kelly Garrity notes “it would be the first time an administration has willingly shared classified information with a candidate who is facing criminal charges related to their handling of classified material.”

ALL POLITICS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Two members of Washington state’s congressional delegation are backing state Sen. EMILY RANDALL in her bid for retiring Rep. DEREK KILMER’s seat in the 6th District’s Democratic primary. Reps. MARILYN STRICKLAND’s and MARIE GLUESENKAMP PEREZ’s endorsements are notably pitted against Kilmer, who’s backing state Public Lands Commissioner HILARY FRANZ in the race. Randall has already received endorsements from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, Latino Victory Fund and Planned Parenthood Action Fund, and would be the first woman, LGBTQ person and person of color to hold the seat.

CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER — Election officials have been battling an increasingly poisonous atmosphere for the past several years fueled by disinformation, threats and public mistrust of the electoral system. But with the rise of artificial intelligence and the 2024 election just months out, they’re now “worried AI will make that challenge even more unmanageable,” Zach Montellaro reports this morning: “Election administrators are preparing their responses for when the AI-driven attacks do come. … Many have plans for public education campaigns. They also plan to double down on the misinformation-fighting programs and tactics they’ve developed in recent years.”

2024 WATCH

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The progressive group MoveOn Political Action is launching a new six-figure ad buy attacking No Labels for “help[ing] Trump win” and urging voters not to support the third-party group. The 30-second ad, run in partnership with Way to Lead, the American Federation of Teachers and SEIU, will run once a day starting tomorrow during MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” and will stream on Hulu and YouTube in Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona. Watch the full ad

POLICY CORNER

TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK — As legislation that would ban TikTok in the U.S. or force its sale hurtles toward a vote in the House this week, executives at the helm of the social media company were caught by surprise, and “[a]lready, U.S. tech and media titans are circling” for a potential buyout, WSJ’s Natalie Andrews, Georgia Wells, Kristina Peterson, Stu Woo, Keach Hagey and Jessica Toonkel report: “In recent days, some executives have discussed buying TikTok if ByteDance agrees to sell. BOBBY KOTICK, the former chief executive of videogame publisher Activision, has expressed interest to ByteDance co-founder ZHANG YIMING, according to a person familiar with the situation. Any price tag is estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars.”

MEDIAWATCH

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The union representing WSJ journalists on Friday filed two grievances alleging the paper violated their collective bargaining agreement when it laid off 17 Journal reporters in the D.C. bureau on Feb. 1, Daniel Lippman has learned. The NewsGuild-CWA Local 1096 said in a statement that it believes none of the firings were justified amid “record profits and subscriber growth” at Dow Jones and that when layoffs are made for economic reasons, more junior employees are supposed to be affected first.

The union’s grievances charge the paper with violating a job-security provision of the contract by retaining two employees out of seniority order and trying to re-hire three other employees in violation of seniority rules. (The three journalists, BRODY MULLINS, TED MANN and JULIE BYKOWICZ all declined the offers.) The paper has 20 days to reply to the grievances before the union can submit the complaints for binding arbitration.

Journal editor EMMA TUCKER told employees last month that the layoffs were not about cost-cutting but instead about ensuring the right structure of the paper. A Dow Jones spokesperson told Playbook that the paper is reviewing the union’s allegations: “We, however, believe the company’s actions were entirely consistent with the provisions of the parties’ labor contract.”

WAR IN UKRAINE

UP IN THE AIR — “Ukraine Could Deploy F-16s as Soon as July, but Only a Few,” by NYT’s Lara Jakes: “Twelve pilots so far — fewer than a full squadron — are expected to be ready to fly F-16s in combat by this summer after 10 months of training in Denmark, Britain and the United States. But by the time the pilots return to Ukraine, as few as six F-16s will have been delivered out of about 45 of the fighter jets that European allies have promised.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

TAKING NAMES — Supporters of the campaign to oust Wisconsin state Assembly Speaker ROBIN VOS over his opposition to Trump say they have more than the required 6,850 signatures to force a vote to remove him from office, per the AP: “The recall effort targeting [Vos] highlights continued frustration among Trump’s supporters in battleground Wisconsin over his loss in the 2020 election and how Vos responded to it. That includes how Vos refused attempts from Trump and his supporters to decertify Biden’s win and how he didn’t move forward with impeaching Wisconsin’s top elections official.”

PLAYBOOKERS

Jimmy Kimmel clapped back at Donald Trump during the Oscars.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Former President Bill Clinton is in Prague this week to address the “Our Security Cannot Be Taken For Granted” conference to mark the 25th anniversary of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary joining NATO. During the visit, Clinton will be presented with the National Order, the highest honor of the Czech government.

— Kate O’Keeffe is now covering U.S.-China tech and national security for Bloomberg. She most recently covered the same beat at the WSJ.

TRANSITIONS — Claire Umetin is now a strategic outreach and visits manager with Google’s government affairs and public policy team. She previously was at State’s Office of the Chief of Protocol … Morgan Caplan is now senior comms manager at Moyer Strategies. She previously was associate press secretary at the Sierra Club. … Conner Swanson is now a senior advisor with the House Budget Committee. He previously was comms director for Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.).

ENGAGED — Jamie Gleklen, director at Marathon Strategies and a Media Matters and Nancy Pelosi alum, and Isaac Rudin, a manager at Douglas Development, got engaged last week on vacation in Puerto Rico. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.) … Rupert Murdoch (93) … Ben Becker of Precision Strategies … Michael Holley … Claire Burghoff of Cornerstone Government Affairs … Curt Cashour … CNN’s Emily Riley … Miguel Almaguer … MSNBC’s Christina Arvanites and Erin Clifford … Matt Sobocinski … Joe Quinn of SAFE Commanding Heights … Alice Stewart … DIA’s Jeff Hayes … Carrie Pugh … Lauren O’Brien of Sen. Todd Young’s (R-Ind.) office … Suzanne Hammelman … Tim Mack of Rep. Madeleine Dean’s (D-Pa.) office … Amy Weiss of Weiss Public Affairs … Libby Marking of the National Wildlife Refuge Association … former Wyoming Gov. Matt Mead … Jon Cohen … former Interior Secretary Gale Norton (7-0) … Eloisa Melendez … Qorvis’ Brad Klapper … Sam Donaldson … Commerce’s Madeline Broas (3-0) … Charles McElwee … Nick Shapiro … Abbey Schieffer of Sen. Kevin Cramer’s (R-N.D.) office

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