Playbook: Biden goes from bunker to blitz

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

JULY FOURTH READING — “The partisan gap in views of American greatness,” by WaPo’s Philip Bump: “Democrats are more proud of the U.S. Republicans are more likely to view it as the greatest country on Earth.”

TODAY’S BIG ELECTION — It’s Election Day in the U.K., where voters are expected to oust PM RISHI SUNAK, ending 14 years of Conservative rule and sweeping KEIR STARMER’s Labour Party into power. Pending the results, it will be “either the most dramatic obliteration of a U.K. government in our lifetimes, or the greatest political comeback (and the greatest polling disaster) of our age,” Dan Bloom writes in today’s London Playbook. Live election updates

BIDEN’S BLITZ — For years, JOE BIDEN’s team has responded to a storm of bad news with a tried and true approach: hunker down, ignore the chattering class and weather the storm.

It’s worked many times — during the pre-South Carolina Democratic primaries in 2020; during the general election; during negotiations over the infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, the gun safety bill; during the 2022 midterms. Talk to them enough, and you’ll hear some version of their unofficial mantra: “Never bet against Joe Biden.”

But amid the wreckage of his disastrous debate performance — and the much bigger questions it raises about his health, his White House’s candor and his ability to effectively make the case against DONALD TRUMP — that approach just isn’t cutting it this time.

“The strategy that says ‘the chattering class is making it all up’ and ‘real people don’t care about any of this’ isn’t working,” one former senior Biden campaign and White House aide told Playbook last night. “It may really be the [‘chattering class’] people just right now — the elected officials, the donors, you know, the people in the know — whose hair is on fire, but the tide will turn soon for the voters to espouse what we’re hearing from some of the elected officials, the donors and the political professionals.”

So, something of a pivot is underway from Biden world. But the White House strategy seems stuck in a tug of war between their old weather-the-storm impulse and the transparency that this moment demands.

The early results are muddled at best.

Last night, Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS met with Democratic governors from around the country, many of whom flew to Washington to attend in person.

Biden disclosed to them that “he underwent a medical checkup after last week’s debate and is fine,” Elena Schneider, Eli Stokols and Sally Goldenberg scooped.

The post-meeting PR was a show of support for the president, with Govs. GAVIN NEWSOM, GRETCHEN WHITMER, WES MOORE, KATHY HOCHUL and TIM WALZ all voicing some variation of “he’s all in and so am I” or otherwise expressing their continued support.

But behind closed doors, the picture was more complicated.

“Two Democratic governors — MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM of New Mexico and JANET MILLS of Maine — expressed concern to Biden over whether he could still win their blue-leaning states, describing them as competitive,” Elena, Eli and Sally write. (Reminder of just how bad a sign that is: “In 2020, Biden won New Mexico by 11 percentage points and Maine by 9 points.”)

Mills “bluntly told Mr. Biden that his age was fine but that people did not think he was up to running,” NYT’s Maggie Haberman, Shawn Hubler and Reid Epstein report. “Gov. NED LAMONT of Connecticut said he had to make the case to voters. Another [governor] asked Mr. Biden what the path forward was.”

For now, those comments are only being made in private. But that they’ve made their way into press reports is sign enough of the level of unease at the top echelons of the party. (Yesterday, Arizona Rep. RAÚL GRIJALVA became the second House Dem to call on Biden to step aside. As we detail below, that number could swell after this coming Monday.)

Happy Fourth of July. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING — The coming days see a battery of political tests that Biden will need to pass if he wants to resuscitate his campaign:

— TOMORROW, ON TV: For the last week, political pros have consistently suggested one course of action that the president should take if he wants to stanch the bleeding: Sit down for a long televised interview with a trusted journalist, and answer tough (and likely uncomfortable) questions about his health, his mental acuity and anything else that comes up. Show he has nothing to hide.

Tomorrow’s interview with ABC News’ GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS is ostensibly supposed to do just that (though there are plenty of complaints that the interview should have been much earlier than a week after the debate).

Reasonable observers can disagree over exactly how long that interview needs to be. But whatever that length is, this is unlikely to satisfy anyone: The Daily Beast’s Hugh Dougherty reports that “there is deep concern inside ABC News’ upper echelons that Stephanopolous could get as little as 15 minutes … One source suggested it would be more in the range of 20 minutes — still a relatively short period of time for even an accomplished interviewer to cover questions both over Biden’s cognitive state and his ability to stay in the campaign.”

However long it is, the interview — which airs at 8 p.m. tomorrow — will be appointment viewing.

— THIS WEEKEND, ON THE TRAIL: Biden is hitting the road. Tomorrow, he’ll be in Wisconsin. Sunday, he’ll be in Philly. Both appearances are likely to use the teleprompter. But Democrats we talked to say he needs to get away from the teleprompter in order to reassure them and voters that all is okay.

— MONDAY, ON CAPITOL HILL: Sometimes, a headline says it all: “‘Everybody’s in panic mode’ as House Democrats scramble after debate,” by Ally Mutnick, Jennifer Haberkorn, Adam Cancryn, Nicholas Wu, Elena Schneider and Daniella Diaz.

The team reports that there are multiple drafts of letters circulating among House Democrats, at least one of which calls on Biden to end his campaign. Some members are waiting before signing on — hoping for clearer poll data or input from their colleagues and advisers.

For many, this coming Monday looms as an informal deadline. That’s when House members return from the July Fourth recess. With members gathering together in one place, the likelihood of collective action that could give everyone cover increases drastically.

In the meantime, members have been left to privately discuss the issue in group chats and phone calls — with a shift in tone playing out in TV hits and interviews back home in their districts.

“Everybody wants him to quit,” one House Democrat told our colleagues. “There’s a sense of despair. I think people don’t understand how we get out of this hole. And we’re hurtling toward losing to Trump. All my text chains in Congress go from a dark humor to ‘let’s take action.’ … I don’t find any discernible group of people who actually believe we’re going to win with Joe Biden.”

— NEXT WEEK, ON THE WORLD STAGE: Starting on Tuesday, Biden hosts the NATO summit here in Washington, where meetings with foreign leaders will either soothe the nerves of jittery European allies or confirm their fears. The White House has promised a traditional presidential press conference with more than two reporters asking two questions — another bit of appointment viewing for politicos.

THE OVERALL STRATEGY: All told, the Biden blitz is aimed at easing fears that the president has lost so many steps, he can’t be the nominee. But the bar has been raised since last Thursday: Democrats tell us that Biden can’t be just okay; he has to knock it out of the park.

“If he can reassure, specifically, his base that he can win — because the only thing his base cares about is beating Trump — that’s it,” one Democratic operative in contact with the campaign told us. “That’s what’s going to unite his entire coalition.”

A key aspect of this, the operative said (echoing others) is the Biden blitz can’t actually stop.

Just one interview — especially if it’s only 15-20 minutes — is not going to solve this. Biden needs to keep them coming for the next few weeks. (Mr. President, Playbook is always available!)

But others worry that it’s simply too late. That the fear has gotten too big and at the end of the day, the debate and the narrative are scarlet letters that will be impossible to shake.

“The next 96 hours determine whether he takes the easy way or the hard way, because I don’t agree that it’s unlikely that he steps down,” one veteran Democratic operative told us. “It comes down to him and his family in the sense that if he’s going to have a dignified exit, they can choose the path to get him there. But if they don’t choose that, he’s going to endure an endless parade of humiliations for the next five months that is going to ultimately become unsustainable, which probably include more flare-ups of age episodes that re-up this whole debate and spark another massive panic.”

Related reads:

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Trump campaign manager SUSIE WILES has told people that she has called BLAKE MASTERS to urge the Arizona Republican to pull or change ads that falsely imply that he has Trump’s endorsement in his congressional campaign, a person directly familiar with the matter told Daniel Lippman.

Trump endorsed ABE HAMADEH, Masters’ primary opponent, in December. But Masters, a PETER THIEL protégé and ally of Sen. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio), this week released TV ads and sent text messages to voters in which he touted Trump’s endorsement of him — in his failed 2022 Senate campaign.

One TV ad heavily talked up how Masters is a Trump ally, with the spot saying “TRUMP ENDORSED MASTERS” in big bold letters with “IN SENATE CAMPAIGN” underneath in a smaller font. The ad ends with a photo of the two with Masters’ family. “LISTEN: President Trump: ‘Blake is a hardcore America First person, he’s hardcore MAGA, and he demands STRONG border security, strong values, strong family,’” read a text message sent to voters. “This is why President Trump ENDORSED Blake Masters in his Senate run.”

Polls have been all over the map in recent months about who is ahead in the July 30 primary.

In a new ad, Hamadeh’s campaign aims to make Masters’ gambit backfire: “Blake ‘the Snake’ Masters is lying again, trying to trick voters. The truth: Abe Hamadeh is the only candidate endorsed by Donald Trump.” Added Hamadeh spokesperson ERICA KNIGHT in a statement to Playbook: “If Blake Masters is willing to lie and deceive about an endorsement that doesn’t exist, what else is he willing to lie about?”

Wiles, Masters and a spokesperson for the Masters campaign didn’t respond to requests for comment.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will host a barbecue with military service members and their families at 5:15 p.m. Then they’ll be joined by Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF for a Fourth of July celebration at 8 p.m. with military and veteran families and others, at which Biden will speak, and to watch the fireworks after 9 p.m.

PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

1. ABORTION ON THE BALLOT: Two states moved closer yesterday to putting the legality of abortion directly before voters in November. In Arizona, organizers of an abortion-rights referendum said they’d submitted more than double the required number of signatures, per the Arizona Republic. And in Nebraska, both abortion-rights supporters and opponents said they submitted more than enough signatures for measures that would, alternately, create a constitutional right to abortion or enshrine the current 12-week ban, per the Omaha World-Herald.

2. WHAT ABOUT BOB: “Bob Menendez’s defense rests without New Jersey senator testifying in bribery trial,” by CBS’ Caitlin Yilek: “Attorneys for Sen. BOB MENENDEZ concluded calling witnesses on Wednesday, opting not to have the New Jersey Democrat take the stand in his own defense … ‘From my perspective, the government has failed to prove every aspect of its case,’ he said [afterward]. … But prosecutors undercut one of the points made by [his sister CARIDAD] GONZALEZ … Jurors are expected to have the case by the end of next week.”

3. SCOTUS FALLOUT: The end of Chevron deference, a crowning achievement of the Supreme Court conservatives’ regulatory rollback, is already having an immediate impact. A federal judge yesterday cited it in part to block a new Biden administration rule that would have prevented discrimination against transgender people in health care, per CNN’s Devan Cole. It’s a nationwide preliminary injunction just before the HHS regs were to take effect tomorrow. More broadly, though opinions vary on how far-reaching challenges to federal rules will now become, law firms smell blood in the water and are leaping to capitalize on the uncertainty, Reuters’ Mike Scarcella reports.

As for the immunity ruling establishing new protections for presidential power, experts tell CBS’ Graham Kates they don’t think it will allow Trump to get his hush money guilty conviction thrown out. But some former Trump Justice Department officials from his first term are worrying that the opinion would allow Trump to weaponize law enforcement against political enemies if he returns to the White House, NBC’s David Rohde reports. Others celebrated the ruling or downplayed its impact.

It’s all JOHN ROBERTS’ world, and we’re just living in it, WSJ’s Jess Bravin writes in a 30,000-foot look at how the chief justice wrested back control of the court this term. This term “wasn’t merely a conservative triumph but one that moved the law to match the priorities of the chief justice,” who worried less about compromising with the liberals. The decisions this year showed Roberts charging hard on the issues he cares most about (expanding presidential power, reining in federal regulation), while going for compromises or punts on the ones he’s less passionate about (abortion, guns). More takeaways from Josh Gerstein … More from NYT’s Charlie Savage

4. ANOTHER BIDEN LOSS IN COURT: “Federal judge temporarily blocks rule banning noncompete contracts,” by WaPo’s Julian Mark: “Judge ADA BROWN found that the [FTC] lacked the authority to issue the rule, which makes it illegal for employers to include noncompete agreements in workers’ contracts. Brown’s order, which is limited to the plaintiffs, postpones the effective date of the rule, Sept. 4, until the court reaches a decision on the case’s merits, which she said would take place by Aug. 30.”

5. UKRAINE LATEST: The war in Ukraine will be a central focus at the NATO summit in Washington next week, and Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY will meet with the four congressional leaders and other members, Joe Gould scooped. The discussions will take place Wednesday. But as some NATO members push to create a “bridge” for Ukraine to become a member, dozens of experts yesterday warned that moving Kyiv closer to joining the alliance could incentivize Russia to prolong the war, Matt Berg reports.

6. THE STAKES FOR NOVEMBER: “The AI Industry starts to focus on a potential Trump presidency,” by Semafor’s Reed Albergotti and Katyanna Quach: “[C]ompanies used to a White House that has worked closely with AI firms on new safety guidelines for the nascent industry and cooperated with international partners may have to adjust to a deregulatory, America-first regime. … The next president could lead the US through what may best be described as a transition in which the technology gains the capabilities necessary to replace humans in many roles. Depending on how fast that occurs, it could lead to economic challenges requiring fast and decisive policymaking.”

7. THE NEW GOP: The surging strain of foreign-policy isolationism in the MAGA wing of the GOP is rooted in more than just following Trump’s lead. As Ian Ward reports in a fascinating new POLITICO Magazine piece, many of Congress’ top skeptics of Ukraine aid and interventionism more broadly are military veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. And that experience “played a decisive role in their rejection of the GOP’s more hawkish foreign policy consensus. Having witnessed the failures and lethal consequences of the U.S. wars firsthand, they said, they have grown skeptical of the efficacy of U.S. military power, distrustful of civilian and military leaders and weary of getting the United States involved in overseas conflicts.”

8. LIFE ON THE MISSISSIPPI: “Big River: Can the Mississippi build America again?” by Ry Rivard and Garrett Downs in Winfield, Missouri, for a POLITICO special report: “Biden’s administration is trying to remake the river yet again. It has $2.5 billion at its disposal for a massive down payment on river transportation from the bipartisan infrastructure law. It represents the first significant upgrade to river infrastructure — the 25,000 miles of inland waterways through which barges and freighters pass every day — since the New Deal. Biden is betting that the very waterways that built America once can now help to solve its climate threat … But not everyone agrees the money is being well spent.”

9. THE BIG SORT: Forget about Southern California. Once a hotbed of conservatism, the region has long been home to the Claremont Institute — but now many of its leaders are moving away to the Dallas area or other conservative regions, NYT’s Ruth Graham reports. It’s “part of a project that goes far beyond electoral politics” for many leading Trumpist intellectuals. “Rather, it is a movement to reclaim the values of Western civilization as they see it. … Fed up by what they see as an increasingly hostile and disordered secular culture, many are moving to what they view as more welcoming states and regions, battling for American society from conservative ‘fortresses.’”

PLAYBOOKERS

Mark Meadows’ Conservative Partnership Institute was accused of improperly paying his legal bills.

Cori Bush landed a big endorsement from Tishaura Jones.

Philip Shadrach and George Wilson posthumously received the Medal of Honor.

OUT AND ABOUT — Rina Shah had a surprise party yesterday evening in the wine room of Cafe Milano, where guests enjoyed a four-course meal. SPOTTED: host Niteesh Bharara, Alex Yergin, Tara Setmayer, Kurt Bardella, Rasheedah Thomas, Jordan Kaye Colvin, Tanveer Kathawalla, Reed Howard, Sweta Chakraborty and Anastasia Dellaccio.

MEDIA MOVE — Rebecca Morin is returning to USA Today as a senior national news reporter, writing the politics newsletter. She most recently was a White House reporter at The Messenger, and is a POLITICO alum.

TRANSITION — James Manser is now VP for global government relations for Johnson Controls. He previously was president of Pantheon Strategies, and is an Endo International alum.

WEDDING — Sophia Sokolowski, senior adviser to the office of intergovernmental affairs at the White House, and Luka Ignac, assistant director for the Transatlantic Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, got married recently on the island of Brač in Croatia, where Luka was born and raised. They met in grad school when they were set up by friends. Pic … Another pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jacqueline Sanchez, chief of staff to Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), and Fernando Sanchez, owner of District Rico Peruvian chicken, welcomed Valentina Olivia Sanchez yesterday. She joins big sister Esmé.

— Douglas Sellers, managing partner of Sellers Strategies and a Trump White House, DFC and Bob Corker alum, and Casey Black Sellers, comms director for Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee and a Corker alum, on Saturday welcomed Hope Elizabeth Sellers, who came in at 5 lbs, 15 oz. Pic … Another pic

BORN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY: The United States of America is 248 … Malia Obama … Geraldo Rivera … WSJ’s Natalie Andrews … Viveca Novak … former Reps. Dan Maffei (D-N.Y.) and Sam Farr (D-Calif.) … Ed Matricardi … Frank Donatelli … Lanhee Chen … Ripple’s Susan Hendrick … POLITICO’s Chelsea Cirruzzo … Ann Rulon … Dustin Todd … Matt Katz … Kathleen Kennedy Townsend … Terry Wade … Kevin McLaughlin … Ryan Williams … Will Ritter of Poolhouse … Catlin O’Neill … Sunshine Sachs’ Taylor Friedman … Lauren Ashburn … Matthew Gravatt … Cassie Ballard of Chime … Ron Kovic … Andrew Sorkin of Latham & Watkins … Brandon English … Luke Tomanelli … John Simonds

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