What’s the matter with Wisconsin?

SWING STATE SWEATING — It’s a fraught time for Democrats in Wisconsin — and not just because of President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance.

The party had hoped to ride a revived industrial economy and persisting concern about abortion rights to victory in a state that’s crucial to Democratic hopes of retaining the presidency and the Senate this fall.

But over and over again, local candidates report, their messaging was derailed in the past week by concerns about Biden’s debate performance and broader worries that he may not be up for the job. And even when they get around to selling their message, particularly on the economy, many voters aren’t buying in.

It’s all a bad omen since robust Democratic turnout is essential to winning the state — particularly in the state’s largest city, Milwaukee, where Republicans will, in just a few days, renominate Donald Trump for the presidency at their national convention.

Biden’s debate performance “definitely had an impact,” said Avery Renk, a Democratic candidate for a Wisconsin Assembly seat outside of Madison, during an interview at a Democratic picnic on Sunday. “Before the debate there was a lot of chat about me, about my opponents in the Democratic primary for the Assembly, and since the debate there’s been a lot of chat at [voters’] doorsteps about Biden, and everything I hear is he’s too old.”

“It’s been really tough,” he added forlornly, “since I think my job is to remind people about the job that has been done” by Biden and Democrats writ-large.

Renk’s experience was borne out over discussions with dozens of voters, Democratic Party candidates and volunteers in Wisconsin over the past week, where nearly every person expressed at least some concern with Biden’s age and his ability to beat Trump — even if most feel it’s too late to replace him on the ticket.

“After the debate, everyone is saying ‘oh my gosh he’s [had a] cognitive decline, we didn’t see this,’” said Brandon, a real estate salesman outside of Milwaukee who declined to give his last name and said he remains undecided in the presidential election despite supporting policies like abortion rights and socialized health care. “And I’m like, ‘how can’t you see [the decline]? It’s obvious.’”

Similar interactions were repeated a dozen times during a canvassing walk with Democratic Assembly candidate LuAnn Bird, who is running neck-and-neck with an incumbent Republican for a seat located in southeastern Milwaukee and the surrounding suburbs. Again and again, she tried to direct the conversation back to her own priorities, from local education issues to abortion rights and a revived industrial economy in the region.

“We know Joe is old,” Bird said to skeptical voters she met while doorknocking, “but we have to think about what would happen if Trump gets in.”

The trouble for Democrats, though, goes deeper than Biden’s mental acuity. The president and his allies in Congress — like Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who’s engaged in her own competitive reelection campaign — have tailored their economic policies to win states like Wisconsin, hoping to avoid the populist backlash that helped Trump break the Midwestern blue wall in 2016.

As president, he expanded Trump-era tariffs on China, came out against the sale of iconic U.S. Steel to a Japanese rival, and abandoned the trade elements of his core economic proposal for Asia, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework — all at the urging of Baldwin and other at-risk Senate Democrats from the Rust Belt.

But those policies aren’t registering with some manufacturing workers — even at a factory that Biden himself visited last year.

“As a blue collar worker, I don’t feel that Biden has done enough,” said Jake Westray, a union wind turbine repair technician at Ingeteam, a renewable energy manufacturer in Milwaukee that Biden toured last April.

Westray’s company is steadily adding new workers due to strong renewable energy demand from the president’s Inflation Reduction Act – Westray was training a new wind turbine technician when he paused for an interview – and domestic manufacturing rules for electric vehicle chargers in the bipartisan infrastructure law. Still, he said persistent inflation means that he’s “leaning red” for the presidential election. And that factor will persist even if Democrats switch Biden out for another candidate in the coming days.

“I know that [Biden] poured money into jobs,” he said, “but a lot of people haven’t gotten that wage increase to be able to counteract inflation.”

Along with Westray, even blue-no-matter-who voters in the manufacturing economy were down on Biden’s chances in November, and they weren’t confident that Vice President Kamala Harris or another Democrat would do any better than him.

“I think a lot of people are going to vote for Trump, which I think is crazy, because Trump is crazy,” said Magnolia Taylor, a wind turbine finisher at Ingeteam who plans to vote for Biden. “This economy, it kind of sucks. Gas prices are up, meat is up … but the people’s pay is mostly the same. So the economy is tough for a lot of people.”

The Biden campaign insists that any anxiety over Biden’s economic policies and his fitness for the job is being matched by an upswell in support and volunteering among Democrats. In the wake of the debate, the campaign saw a “surge” of volunteers, a campaign official said, “which allowed us to make 100,000 voter contact attempts across the state.”

Still, local Democrats and union leaders say there’s much more work to do to connect the benefits of Biden’s economy with voters who will be crucial to winning his reelection. For more about the fallout from the debate, check out this dispatch from Milwaukee, and stay tuned for more coverage on the Wisconsin economy over the weekend.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at [email protected]. Or contact tonight’s author at [email protected] or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @GavinBade.

What'd I Miss?

— Florida university president resigns after nine-figure donation snafu: Florida A&M University President Larry Robinson is resigning as leader of the state’s only public historically Black university, a decision that comes amid a probe into a dubious failed $237 million donation that one key official labeled as an “embarrassment.” Robinson, who has led the school for nearly seven years, announced the decision Friday, although the specific timing for when he will step down as president is undecided. His departure opens a key void in Florida’s university system, one that will be filled by trustees in the coming months and could be influenced by Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration, which has been aggressive in reshaping higher education in the state.

— Justice Department preparing rental market collusion lawsuit: The Justice Department is gearing up to challenge what it says is collusive conduct in the rental housing market with a lawsuit against a software company that it believes allows large landlords to fix prices. The DOJ is planning to sue RealPage Inc., a software company used by landlords across the country, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. DOJ staff recently recommended a civil lawsuit against RealPage that would accuse the company of selling software that enables landlords to illegally share confidential pricing information in order to collude on setting rents. The recommendation escalates the investigation to the antitrust division’s leadership.

— Sen. Bob Menendez’s fate is now in the hands of a Manhattan jury: After nine weeks and well over a million words of testimony and lawyer arguments, jurors in Sen. Bob Menendez’s corruption trial began deliberations this afternoon. They will decide whether a sprawling, yearslong federal investigation and high-stakes political prosecution is a righteous takedown of a corrupt New Jersey Democrat or a catastrophic and misguided waste of time. At 70, a guilty verdict could very well mean Menendez will spend the rest of his life in prison. But an acquittal — or hung jury, like in his 2017 trial — would amount to a historic and extraordinary legal feat for a senator who has long accused the Justice Department of “hunting” him.

Nightly Road to 2024

TIME TO GO, PT. 1 — Nearly 20 Democrats in Congress have called on President Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 race, with more trickling out by the day. And the group transcends generational and ideological lines in the party. Most of the members are rank-and-file lawmakers, as Democratic leadership has continued to publicly back the president’s reelection. But the lawmakers calling for Biden to exit the race have extended to top national security Democrats like Reps. Jim Hines (D-Conn.) and Adam Smith (D-Wash.), the ranking members on the Intelligence and Armed Services Committees, respectively.

TIME TO GO, PT. 2 — A group of two dozen former House Democrats has sent a letter to President Joe Biden calling for him to step aside to prevent a GOP takeover of Washington. Instead, they want him to allow for an “open convention” this summer to decide the 2024 ticket. In their letter, the 24 Democrats — which include former House members and one former senator — make clear that they do not doubt Biden’s “extraordinary record.” But they warn that if the president stays on the ballot, it would mean the party not only loses the White House, but would decimate their ranks in Congress.

APPRENTICE-STYLE — Donald Trump’s aides are discussing having the former president reveal his running mate on stage at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on Monday night, according to two people familiar with the planning. The planning is still fluid, aides stressed. The finalists are expected to be at the convention, and if Trump decides to keep quiet over the weekend, there could be a reality show-style reveal on the convention’s opening night.

NO MEMORY — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. apologized last week to a woman he allegedly sexually assaulted in the late 1990s, according to a text message seen by The Washington Post and NBC News. Eliza Cooney told Vanity Fair earlier this month that Kennedy forcibly groped her when she was in her 20s and worked for the Kennedy family as a babysitter. “I have no memory of this incident but I apologize sincerely for anything I ever did that made you feel uncomfortable or anything I did or said that offended you or hurt your feelings,” Kennedy said in the text message to Cooney.

AROUND THE WORLD

J’ACCUSE — The European Union is calling Elon Musk to order over how he turned social media site X into a haven for disinformation and illegal content.

The EU Commission today formally charged X for failing to respect EU social media law. The platform could face a sweeping multi-million euro fine in a pioneering case under the bloc’s new Digital Services Act, a law to clamp down on toxic and illegal online content and algorithms.

Musk’s X has been in Brussels’ crosshairs ever since the billionaire took over the company, formerly known as Twitter, in 2022. X has been accused of letting disinformation and illegal hate speech run wild, roll out misleading authentication features and blocking external researchers from tools to scrutinize how malicious content on the platforms spreads.

The European Commission oversees X and two dozens of the world’s largest online platforms including Facebook, YouTube and others. The EU executive’s probe into Musk’s firm opened in December 2023 and was the first formal investigation. Today’s charges are the first-ever under the DSA.

Infringements of the DSA could lead to fines of up to 6 percent of a X’s global revenue.

Nightly Number

RADAR SWEEP

CHANGE IS COMING — In areas of Mexico, changes in climate have altered the landscape. Longer drought seasons have dried up the landscape and forced Mexicans worried about feeding themselves and their children to adopt new strategies. A group of mothers in the indigenous community of Xixivo, about 6,500 feet above sea level, began to learn to grow different crops with more resiliency and partnered with the nonprofit Group to Promote Education and Sustainable Development, based in Mexico City. The group built them a resilient well that helped stop disease and helped them when inevitable droughts came. Now, some of these same mothers have attended training sessions with the nonprofit and are working to use their practical skills in other communities in the region. Stephania Corpi Arnaud reports for the BBC.

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