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ARIZONA
Analysis of 2016 and 2020 Presidential Elections
Ray Blehar February 16 2021
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
There was not a single write-in vote among the nearly 3 million absentee votes cast in the Arizona 2020 election. This anomaly is proof of a systemic error in the voting system. In addition, inconsistent reporting categories of votes between the state and counties, anomalous vote totals for Minor Party candidates, and other anomalies in mail-in voting provide compelling evidence that
Arizona’s
2016 and 2020 certified election results
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were based on incomplete, erroneous, and very likely manipulated data. Specifically:
The certified vote total and the county totals do not reconcile by 9,999 votes;
The 2020 write-in total of 2,023 votes was based only on in-person votes;
There are 106,110 fewer votes in the 2020 certified results for Minor Party candidates than there were in 2016; and,
There were 628,034 more absentee/early votes counted than reportedly received. The analysis determined consistent reconciliation values of approximately 100,000 votes between various election data sets
.
For example:
The vote to
Biden’s
advantage in 2020 was 101,691 votes;
There is a difference of 112,032
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votes between the record of early/absentee votes in the U.S. Elections Early voting report and the certified results;
The projection of votes shifted during adjudication is 117,787; In 2016, the Green Party (GP) candidate Jill Stein received an average of 90,000 less votes than same party down-ballot candidates.
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In conclusion, the analysis reveals that approximately 100,000 absentee votes, including all of the absentee write-in votes, were manipulated during the 2020 Arizona vote tabulation and a similar total was manipulated in 2016.
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https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/2020_General_State_Canvass.pdf
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Edison Research, NEP data 11/30/2020 (data used for certification of votes)
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https://apps.azsos.gov/election/2016/General/Official%20Signed%20State%20Canvass.pdf
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INTRODUCTION
1.
Primary sources
:
Analysis of Arizona’s 2016 and 2020 certified
election results was performed using a variety of sources. The primary source was the official certified results (canvass) from the Arizona Secretary of State (AZ SOS).
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The figures in the AZ SOS report are the output from the Edison Research National Election Polling (NEP) vote tabulation.
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2.
Edison Research NEP:
The NEP provides media organizations
with real-time vote results in all 50 states. The NEP tracks every vote until results are certified by all states. Vote count data is available for statewide results, vote by Congressional District, county vote data breakouts for statewide races, and all U.S. House races.
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These two sources match exactly at the state level for candidates who were listed on the ballot. Hereafter, these sources will be
referred to as the “certified result (s).”
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Secondary sources.
In addition, the analysis relied upon ancillary sources and sub-sources to include Early Voting statistics from the US Elections Project,
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county -by-county results in AZ,
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historical results from the Arizona 2016 canvass,
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relevant media reports, election systems certification documents, and election results from numerous US states.
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4.
Methodology
: The analysis consisted of comparisons of data among sources, reconciling sources as applicable, and identifying significant deviations.
4
https://apps.azsos.gov/election/2016/General/Official%20Signed%20State%20Canvass.pdf
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https://static01.nyt.com/elections-assets/2020/data/api/2020-11-03/race-page/arizona/president.json
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https://www.edisonresearch.com/election-polling/
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https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/AZ.html
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See Appendix A for full list of county sources
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https://apps.azsos.gov/election/2016/General/Official%20Signed%20State%20Canvass.pdf
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See Appendix B for full list of state sources
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