Braves vs. Padres Player Props & Odds: Will Cease Get Revenge on Atlanta?
Two second-place National League teams meet as the San Diego Padres host the Atlanta Braves, and we offer our best Braves vs. Padres player props based on odds from the best sports betting sites.
The Braves and Padres had combined to lose six consecutive games heading into Friday’s series opener. However, after the Braves triumphed 6-1 on Friday, just the Padres enter this middle game of the three-game series on a losing streak, and that five-game run is the longest active stretch in Major League Baseball.
This is a significant contest for both clubs, as each side is battling for a wild-card spot. Atlanta currently holds a four-game lead atop the wild-card standings, while San Diego moved one game out of a playoff spot after Friday's loss.
First pitch for this Braves-Padres Saturday tilt is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET from Petco Park in San Diego on Saturday.
Braves vs. Padres player props
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Reynaldo Lopez Under 2.5 earned runs (-150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts (-105 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Matt Olson Over 0.5 RBIs (+190 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Braves vs. Padres expert picks
Reynaldo Lopez Under 2.5 earned runs ⭐⭐⭐
Reynaldo Lopez lowered his NL-leading ERA to 1.71 in his last outing after throwing six scoreless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies. That was Lopez’s fourth start this season of at least six scoreless innings pitched, and all of those outings came against teams that are in the top 10 of the majors in scoring (the New York Mets, Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles, and Philadelphia Phillies).
We're therefore confident in Lopez limiting a Padres offense that's scored the 11th-most runs this season. But we're only making this a three-star play, as San Diego ranks in the top four in BABIP, wOBA, and wRC+ against right-handers.
bet365 is our go-to shop for this wager, as it stands alone among our best sports betting apps while offering better than -154 odds. The -150 odds imply a 60% hit probability, and it would pay $16.67 on a winning $10 wager.
Best odds: -150 via bet365 | Implied probability: 60.00%
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Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Dylan Cease was roughed up for five runs on nine hits over five innings during a May 20 road start against the Braves. The one positive from that start is that five of his 12 recorded outs were strikeouts, and we believe he's in for a bounce-back start on Saturday.
Atlanta has posted the third-highest strikeout percentage (24.9%) and fourth-lowest wRC+ (89) against right-handed pitching over the past month. And the Braves haven't been particularly good against sliders while whiffing on that pitch at the fourth-highest rate (42%) against righties.
That pitch is Cease’s bread and butter, and he throws it 42% of the time. So we're making the Over on his strikeouts a four-star play, as DraftKings seems confident he'll throw at least six innings on Saturday. That book is juicing the Over on 17.5 outs recorded to -200.
Caesars is as high as -111 for this wager, implying a 52.61% win probability. But at this -105 price, a winning $10 wager pays $9.52 in profit.
Best odds: -105 via DraftKings, bet365 | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Matt Olson Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐
Matt Olson was the only Braves starter to not strike out against Matt Waldron on Friday, and he was also the only batter to drive in a run.
Olson’s 43 RBIs from a prime run-producing spot in the lineup are disappointing after three straight years of 103-plus RBIs, including a league-leading 139 last year. However, he slugged .333/.375/.533 while driving in three runs during that first series against the Padres. And although he's logged just two RBIs in July thus far, we expect him to get back on track Saturday, especially since his xwOBAcon (.412) is right in line with the .413 and .422 rates from 2021 and 2022, when he drove in 214 runs over that two-year span.
Our other best sportsbooks like DraftKings give Olson a 36.36% implied probability to record an RBI given the shorter +175 odds. But we would get $1.50 more in profit while making this wager at bet365, which would pay out $29 on a winning $10 wager.
Best odds: +190 via bet365 | Implied probability: 34.48%
Braves vs. Padres odds & game info
- When: Saturday, July 13
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Petco Park, San Diego
- How to watch: FOX
- Favorite: Even (-110 via bet365)
Braves vs. Padres player props made Saturday at 8:31 a.m. ET.
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