Shark attacks are vanishingly rare. The chance that any given American swimmer will be bitten is just 1 in 11.5 million, according to the University of Florida’s International Shark Attack File, which tracks shark-bite statistics. The odds are even lower in Texas, where only 48 people have been bitten in the past 113 years. “Over the last ten years, if anything, there’s been a slight drop in the number of unprovoked bites,” said Gavin Naylor, director of the Florida Program for Shark Research, noting that about 60 to 80 people are bitten worldwide each year. Still, the seemingly random nature of attacks and pop-culture portrayals of horror beneath the waves instill a persistent fear—which Texans may be feeling more strongly than usual this summer.

On July 4, on South Padre Island, three swimmers were bitten by sharks in two separate incidents. In the first encounter, according to a statement from the city’s fire chief, Jim Pigg, two people were injured. One was treated at the hospital; the other victim was grazed and had minor injuries that were treated at the scene. “Later on in the day, we received another 911 call in a different location,” Pigg said. “Two individuals had been bitten by a shark. Both were transported to local hospitals as well,” with one later being flown via helicopter flown via helicopter to a larger medical center. As of Friday afternoon, two people remained hospitalized. A 47-year-old woman from Celina and a 35-year-old man from La Vernia are “out of surgery and in stable condition,” said South Padre Island city secretary Nikki Soto in a statement. A 49-year-old man from Celina was treated and released. “We do not know the reason why this happened,” Pigg said, adding that he did not know the species of shark involved or whether the bites came from a single shark or multiple animals. “It’s unprecedented on South Padre Island.” He said lifeguards were encouraging swimmers to be cautious. “The shark was located at the south end of the island and was pushed out to deeper water. This was a very rare occurrence.”

Texas shark attacks south padre island
A shark close to the shore off South Padre Island on July 4.Texas Department of Public Safety/AP

The July 4 events follow a May 28 incident in Galveston, where a bull shark bit nineteen-year-old Damiana Humphrey on the hand; she recovered after surgery. Texas has now had four shark bites in less than two months, and that’s highly unusual. Was this sheer bad luck, or were other factors at play?

Most likely a little bit of both, said Kesley Banks, an associate research scientist at Texas A&M University’s Harte Research Institute, in Corpus Christi. She points to the confluence of two factors that made yesterday’s attacks more likely. “On a holiday weekend, there are many more people in the water,” Banks said. “More people in the water means increased chances of an encounter.” The second factor, she said, is Hurricane Beryl. “Recent research has shown that larger species, like bull sharks and tiger sharks, increase their feeding behavior and come closer to shore prior to meteorological disturbances,” she said, “and a hurricane is impending into the Gulf.”

While the storm is still hundreds of miles away from the Texas coast, sharks are highly sensitive to changes in barometric pressure; they may feel it coming and decide to prepare by eating more than usual. “Anything that perturbs the environment in which they find themselves can result in a change in behavior,” Naylor said. “The storm’s a long way away, but animals can detect things a long way away.”

Additionally, stormier waters are more opaque, worsening visibility for both sharks and humans. “Humans are not on the menu for sharks,” Banks said. “In most cases, bites are a case of mistaken identity, especially with the dirty water here off Texas.” If a shark is swimming in turbulent water and can’t clearly see its prey, it might mistake a person for a fish. Swimmers can reduce the (already very low) chances of this happening by avoiding clothing or jewelry with metallic colors, such as silver, Banks said.

It’s also a good idea to avoid swimming near anglers with bait in the water. Would she swim at her local beach today? “I would,” Banks said. “Would I be cautious and aware of my surroundings? One hundred percent. But yes, I’d get back in the water. These are extremely rare events.”

Update, July 5, 2024: This story has been updated with more information about the victims.